The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Summary: The retail sector is in worse shape today than it was in 2008 during and immediately following the financial crisis. Retailing has been responsible for 10% of the jobs gained during this so-called recovery. Clearly part of the problem is the increase in minimum wage.  Why are retailers adding so many jobs when their business is declining?

* A quick little announcement at the beginning of this podcast; I'm going to try to keep the length of these podcasts down to 20 minutes in the future

* It seems we have quite a bit of audience falloff after about 17 minutes

* We're also skipping our ads at the end in favor of more informative content about Euro Pacific Capital, SchiffGold, Goldmoney and Euro Pacific Bank.

* So I am going to do these shorter podcasts more frequently

* First of all, it's the RetailPocalypse, which I have been talking about on this podcast that, from my perspective - not just my perspective,

* In reality, the retail sector is in worse shape today than it was in 2008 during and immediately foll0wing the financial crisis

* We got a lot of bad news from the retailers this week

* Including JCPenny and Nordstrom's - horrible sales from these companies

* We had other retailers earlier in the week that came out with bad news

* Kohl's Department Store, Dillards

* Kohl's stock is at 36.5 as I record this

* That stock's high was $75-$80 in the summer of 2015

* So it's down 60% or so

* Dillard's is at a 52-week low today, at just under $47

* That was over $120 - more than a 50% decline

* Macy's was down another 3% today - a new 52-week low

* Macy's is at $23.60 -it was a $70 stock

* These are huge markdowns for retail stocks

* Look at Nordstrom's - down almost 11% today on the bad news

* $41.20 - Nordstrom's was an $80 stock is one of the best performers

* JCPenny is going to get the prize for the biggest decline overall

* This stock's been falling for a long time

* It closed today at $4.55

* A lot of people are very complacent - they say, "Oh, it's no big deal because it's all about e-commerce

* Everybody is shopping online

* Look at Amazon - Amazon stock hit a new 52-week high today

* All time high, not just a 52-week high

* Jeff Bezos is on the way to being the richest man in the world


Our Sponsors:
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Summary: The retail sector is in worse shape today than it was in 2008 during and immediately following the financial crisis. Retailing has been responsible for 10% of the jobs gained during this so-called recovery. Clearly part of the problem is the increase in minimum wage.  Why are retailers adding so many jobs when their business is declining?

* A quick little announcement at the beginning of this podcast; I'm going to try to keep the length of these podcasts down to 20 minutes in the future

* It seems we have quite a bit of audience falloff after about 17 minutes

* We're also skipping our ads at the end in favor of more informative content about Euro Pacific Capital, SchiffGold, Goldmoney and Euro Pacific Bank.

* So I am going to do these shorter podcasts more frequently

* First of all, it's the RetailPocalypse, which I have been talking about on this podcast that, from my perspective - not just my perspective,

* In reality, the retail sector is in worse shape today than it was in 2008 during and immediately foll0wing the financial crisis

* We got a lot of bad news from the retailers this week

* Including JCPenny and Nordstrom's - horrible sales from these companies

* We had other retailers earlier in the week that came out with bad news

* Kohl's Department Store, Dillards

* Kohl's stock is at 36.5 as I record this

* That stock's high was $75-$80 in the summer of 2015

* So it's down 60% or so

* Dillard's is at a 52-week low today, at just under $47

* That was over $120 - more than a 50% decline

* Macy's was down another 3% today - a new 52-week low

* Macy's is at $23.60 -it was a $70 stock

* These are huge markdowns for retail stocks

* Look at Nordstrom's - down almost 11% today on the bad news

* $41.20 - Nordstrom's was an $80 stock is one of the best performers

* JCPenny is going to get the prize for the biggest decline overall

* This stock's been falling for a long time

* It closed today at $4.55

* A lot of people are very complacent - they say, "Oh, it's no big deal because it's all about e-commerce

* Everybody is shopping online

* Look at Amazon - Amazon stock hit a new 52-week high today

* All time high, not just a 52-week high

* Jeff Bezos is on the way to being the richest man in the world

Summary: Trump fantasy persists in the face of weakening economic data, health care and tax reform uncertainty. The reality is that the damage done to the economy will not right itself just because Trump has been elected and we are in for a wild ride whether or not President Trump decides to do the right thing for the American economy.

* It didn't take long for the Atlanta Fed to already reduce its inflated Q2 GDP forecast

* Remember, they initially came out with their first estimate of 4.3% growth in the second quarter

* Following the dismal .7% that was initially released for Q1

* My guess is, still,  that they will continue lowering that estimate as more economic data comes in

* Nonetheless, the Atlanta Fed boldly came out with 4.3% for Q2

* Already, earlier this week, they have reduced that estimate to 3.6%

* That was their first downward revision; I think it is going to be the first of many

* We did this exact same dance last quarter

* Where the Atlanta Fed starts high and as more and more weaker data comes in they keep notching down the estimate

* It's like a GDP forecasting limbo

* The question is:"How low can the bar go?"

* Remember, I mentioned on my last video blog that the New York Fed is already down to 1.8% for Q2, so the Atlanta Fed has a long way to go to catch up to the New York Fed's estimate

* Friday will bring the next update to the GDP estimate

* And that's when we will get the retail sales numbers

* My guess is that we will continue the trend and those sales will be less than expected

* We already got some news today that should weigh on Q2 GDP and that is Import/Export Prices for the month  of April

* This is important because obviously what we pay for our imports and what we get for our exports will be a big determinate of the trade deficit


Our Sponsors:
* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com
* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.plaud.ai


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Summary: Trump fantasy persists in the face of weakening economic data, health care and tax reform uncertainty. The reality is that the damage done to the economy will not right itself just because Trump has been elected and we are in for a wild ride whether or not President Trump decides to do the right thing for the American economy.

* It didn't take long for the Atlanta Fed to already reduce its inflated Q2 GDP forecast

* Remember, they initially came out with their first estimate of 4.3% growth in the second quarter

* Following the dismal .7% that was initially released for Q1

* My guess is, still,  that they will continue lowering that estimate as more economic data comes in

* Nonetheless, the Atlanta Fed boldly came out with 4.3% for Q2

* Already, earlier this week, they have reduced that estimate to 3.6%

* That was their first downward revision; I think it is going to be the first of many

* We did this exact same dance last quarter

* Where the Atlanta Fed starts high and as more and more weaker data comes in they keep notching down the estimate

* It's like a GDP forecasting limbo

* The question is:"How low can the bar go?"

* Remember, I mentioned on my last video blog that the New York Fed is already down to 1.8% for Q2, so the Atlanta Fed has a long way to go to catch up to the New York Fed's estimate

* Friday will bring the next update to the GDP estimate

* And that's when we will get the retail sales numbers

* My guess is that we will continue the trend and those sales will be less than expected

* We already got some news today that should weigh on Q2 GDP and that is Import/Export Prices for the month  of April

* This is important because obviously what we pay for our imports and what we get for our exports will be a big determinate of the trade deficit

SchiffReport recorded Saturday, May 6

* On Wednesday of this week, the Federal Reserve against a rate hike in May

* But based on their official statement, the market assigned a much higher probability

* To a rate hike coming in June

* In fact, following Friday's slightly better-than-expected Non-Farm Payroll report, the probability of a June rate hike is not near 100%

* In other words, the markets are certain that a quart-point hike is coming next month

* If the Federal Reserve does raise its rates by a quarter point, that will bring the floor of the official rate finally up to 1%

* The ceiling being 1.25%, so presumably the Fed will target a Fed funds rate somewhere between 1 - 1.25%

* This is still an exceptionally low interest rate indicating extreme monetary accommodation

* Remember, 1% is the absolute low that Alan Greenspan lowered interest rates to in the aftermath of the 2001 recession and the 9/11 terrorist attack

* That artificially low interest rate really provided the air for the housing bubble that resulted in the 2008 Financial Crisis

* So despite these rate hikes, the Fed monetary policy remains extremely accommodative,

* Just not as accommodative as they were before

* If you recall, the main reason I was certain that the Fed was not like to deliver these rate hikes

* Is because I took the Fed at its word that it was data dependent

* And I believed that the Fed would use weak data as an  opportunity or an excuse to not raise interest rates

* I was wrong about that, because the Federal Reserve has ignored all of the weakening economic data and has raised rates anyway

* It has raised them very slowly, but nonetheless, it has raised interest rates despite the fact that all the data they claim to depend on would not support that decision

* I thought for 2 reasons the Fed would not want to hike rates

* The first be to delay the onset of the next recession

* After all, raising rates into a weakening economy it would accelerate the onset of that recession

* I thought the Fed would always err on a delay

* But apparently, that is not a concern for the Fed

* One of the reasons this might be the case is because the Fed is concerned about having some ammunition to fight the next recession, rather than to postpone the onset

* Meaning that they want to get interest rates further above zero before the recession officially begins so that once it is here, they have more room to cut rates

* Another reason that the Fed has been more willing to raise rates has to do with the action in the U.S. stock market

* I thought the Fed would be reluctant to raise rates for fear of how higher rates might impact the stock market

* But it seems the stock market has found another prop

* It is no longer relying on cheap money; it now also relying on hope and optimism surrounding the election of Donald Trump

* And the idea that he is somehow going to "Make America Great Again"

* With deregulation, tax cuts and all sorts of economic stimulus


Our Sponsors:
* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com
* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.plaud.ai


Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

SchiffReport recorded Saturday, May 6

* On Wednesday of this week, the Federal Reserve against a rate hike in May

* But based on their official statement, the market assigned a much higher probability

* To a rate hike coming in June

* In fact, following Friday's slightly better-than-expected Non-Farm Payroll report, the probability of a June rate hike is not near 100%

* In other words, the markets are certain that a quart-point hike is coming next month

* If the Federal Reserve does raise its rates by a quarter point, that will bring the floor of the official rate finally up to 1%

* The ceiling being 1.25%, so presumably the Fed will target a Fed funds rate somewhere between 1 - 1.25%

* This is still an exceptionally low interest rate indicating extreme monetary accommodation

* Remember, 1% is the absolute low that Alan Greenspan lowered interest rates to in the aftermath of the 2001 recession and the 9/11 terrorist attack

* That artificially low interest rate really provided the air for the housing bubble that resulted in the 2008 Financial Crisis

* So despite these rate hikes, the Fed monetary policy remains extremely accommodative,

* Just not as accommodative as they were before

* If you recall, the main reason I was certain that the Fed was not like to deliver these rate hikes

* Is because I took the Fed at its word that it was data dependent

* And I believed that the Fed would use weak data as an  opportunity or an excuse to not raise interest rates

* I was wrong about that, because the Federal Reserve has ignored all of the weakening economic data and has raised rates anyway

* It has raised them very slowly, but nonetheless, it has raised interest rates despite the fact that all the data they claim to depend on would not support that decision

* I thought for 2 reasons the Fed would not want to hike rates

* The first be to delay the onset of the next recession

* After all, raising rates into a weakening economy it would accelerate the onset of that recession

* I thought the Fed would always err on a delay

* But apparently, that is not a concern for the Fed

* One of the reasons this might be the case is because the Fed is concerned about having some ammunition to fight the next recession, rather than to postpone the onset

* Meaning that they want to get interest rates further above zero before the recession officially begins so that once it is here, they have more room to cut rates

* Another reason that the Fed has been more willing to raise rates has to do with the action in the U.S. stock market

* I thought the Fed would be reluctant to raise rates for fear of how higher rates might impact the stock market

* But it seems the stock market has found another prop

* It is no longer relying on cheap money; it now also relying on hope and optimism surrounding the election of Donald Trump

* And the idea that he is somehow going to "Make America Great Again"

* With deregulation, tax cuts and all sorts of economic stimulus

Summary:  Last quarter the Atlanta Fed's Q1 GDP  forecast was 3.4% in February. The most recent number was actually .7%.  After all the negative economic data that came out today suggesting that Q1 could be revised lower, the Atlanta Fed came out with their forecast for Q2 GDP at 4.3%.  How is this possible, with no economic data to support this projection? Either they believe their policies are still valid in the face of data on a downward trajectory, or they are simply acting as salesmen, promoting economic health regardless of the actual data.

*  Today was Donald Trump's 100th day as President of the United States

* The media is covering this event and looking back over the last 100 days

* Trying to assess the effectiveness of Trump's presidency thus far

* What has he accomplished, how much progress has he made;

* I think the origin of assessing the first 100 days of a presidency goes back to Franklin Delano Roosevelt

* Who of course became president during the Great Depression

* I think the President accomplished a lot during his first 100 days

* That's been the benchmark for which future presidents have been judged

* It's not about which President did the most good for the country during the first 100 days

* It's just, "Who did the most?"

* Because, FDR did a lot, all of it harmed the economy

* Not only did FDR's exacerbate and expand the depression,

* His actions had repercussions for decades

* We are suffering today from the mistakes that FDR made in his first 100 days

* He accomplished a lot, but he accomplished a lot of mistakes

* I would rather have a president do nothing for his first 100 days

* If a President just played golf for 100 days and did nothing

* Chances are he might be the best president we've ever had

* Most Presidents do damage to the economy during their first 100 days

* To the extent that they pass a law, chances are, the law just limited our freedom and reduced our standard of living

* That's true for most politicians: doing nothing is better than doing something

* Because doing something normally means doing harm

* I wish politicians would take the Hippocratic Oath, "First do not harm"

* If politicians took that oath, they could not do anything

* To the extent that a President can undo the damage done by a previous President

* Then, he would be doing a good thing

* I recognize that some of the things that Trump is trying to do is to undo Obama's mistakes


Our Sponsors:
* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com
* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.plaud.ai


Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Summary:  Last quarter the Atlanta Fed's Q1 GDP  forecast was 3.4% in February. The most recent number was actually .7%.  After all the negative economic data that came out today suggesting that Q1 could be revised lower, the Atlanta Fed came out with their forecast for Q2 GDP at 4.3%.  How is this possible, with no economic data to support this projection? Either they believe their policies are still valid in the face of data on a downward trajectory, or they are simply acting as salesmen, promoting economic health regardless of the actual data.

*  Today was Donald Trump's 100th day as President of the United States

* The media is covering this event and looking back over the last 100 days

* Trying to assess the effectiveness of Trump's presidency thus far

* What has he accomplished, how much progress has he made;

* I think the origin of assessing the first 100 days of a presidency goes back to Franklin Delano Roosevelt

* Who of course became president during the Great Depression

* I think the President accomplished a lot during his first 100 days

* That's been the benchmark for which future presidents have been judged

* It's not about which President did the most good for the country during the first 100 days

* It's just, "Who did the most?"

* Because, FDR did a lot, all of it harmed the economy

* Not only did FDR's exacerbate and expand the depression,

* His actions had repercussions for decades

* We are suffering today from the mistakes that FDR made in his first 100 days

* He accomplished a lot, but he accomplished a lot of mistakes

* I would rather have a president do nothing for his first 100 days

* If a President just played golf for 100 days and did nothing

* Chances are he might be the best president we've ever had

* Most Presidents do damage to the economy during their first 100 days

* To the extent that they pass a law, chances are, the law just limited our freedom and reduced our standard of living

* That's true for most politicians: doing nothing is better than doing something

* Because doing something normally means doing harm

* I wish politicians would take the Hippocratic Oath, "First do not harm"

* If politicians took that oath, they could not do anything

* To the extent that a President can undo the damage done by a previous President

* Then, he would be doing a good thing

* I recognize that some of the things that Trump is trying to do is to undo Obama's mistakes

Summary: The Europeans released their inflation numbers today.  Year over year, inflation in the Eurozone are increasing at an average of 1.9%, which is Mario Draghi's objective.  This is a 4-year high in CPI increase.  How does Draghi justify more stimulus? In the U.S. growth is lower than forecast, while inflation is higher than forecast. That trend should be disturbing and it will continue.

* Today we got the government's first estimate of GDP growth for the first quarter of 2017

* If you remember, the Atlanta Fed has been steadily reducing its estimate for first quarter growth since February 1 of this year when it was estimating 3.4% GDP growth

* The last downward revision happened yesterday as a result of more weak economic data that came out yesterday

* Particularly on inventories

* The Atlanta Fed made its final revision to the estimate for Q1, at least the estimate that we got today

* And they were down to .2%!

* The consensus for Q1 had also come down; but not nearly as much as the Atlanta Fed

* Going into this morning, the consensus estimate was 1.1% GDP growth which would be a sharp reduction from the 2.1% GDP growth that the government claims we had last year

* And the range of forecasts went from a high of 1.7% to a low of .7%

* Nobody was quite as low as the Atlanta Fed

* We got the actual number this morning and it was .7%

* This is just the first estimate

* If you look at the economic data that has been coming out this year, the later the data comes, the worse it is

* So if that trend continues over the next month, as the government continues to get additional data from which to determine GDP

* There's a very good chance that they will revise this number down

* And maybe the Atlanta Fed's .2% will end up being correct or too optimistic

* I think there is still a good chance that by the time they get the final revision, which will not happen for a couple of months

* We could end up with a negative number for Q1 very easily

* I think the second quarter will be even weaker than the first quarter

* If we end up with a negative number for the first quarter there's a good chance we'll get a negative number in the second quarter

* Which means that by the time we get the negative number, if the second quarter is pretty much over, and it was also negative

* Then we will actually be in a recession


Our Sponsors:
* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com
* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.plaud.ai


Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Summary: The Europeans released their inflation numbers today.  Year over year, inflation in the Eurozone are increasing at an average of 1.9%, which is Mario Draghi's objective.  This is a 4-year high in CPI increase.  How does Draghi justify more stimulus? In the U.S. growth is lower than forecast, while inflation is higher than forecast. That trend should be disturbing and it will continue.

* Today we got the government's first estimate of GDP growth for the first quarter of 2017

* If you remember, the Atlanta Fed has been steadily reducing its estimate for first quarter growth since February 1 of this year when it was estimating 3.4% GDP growth

* The last downward revision happened yesterday as a result of more weak economic data that came out yesterday

* Particularly on inventories

* The Atlanta Fed made its final revision to the estimate for Q1, at least the estimate that we got today

* And they were down to .2%!

* The consensus for Q1 had also come down; but not nearly as much as the Atlanta Fed

* Going into this morning, the consensus estimate was 1.1% GDP growth which would be a sharp reduction from the 2.1% GDP growth that the government claims we had last year

* And the range of forecasts went from a high of 1.7% to a low of .7%

* Nobody was quite as low as the Atlanta Fed

* We got the actual number this morning and it was .7%

* This is just the first estimate

* If you look at the economic data that has been coming out this year, the later the data comes, the worse it is

* So if that trend continues over the next month, as the government continues to get additional data from which to determine GDP

* There's a very good chance that they will revise this number down

* And maybe the Atlanta Fed's .2% will end up being correct or too optimistic

* I think there is still a good chance that by the time they get the final revision, which will not happen for a couple of months

* We could end up with a negative number for Q1 very easily

* I think the second quarter will be even weaker than the first quarter

* If we end up with a negative number for the first quarter there's a good chance we'll get a negative number in the second quarter

* Which means that by the time we get the negative number, if the second quarter is pretty much over, and it was also negative

* Then we will actually be in a recession