The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

* The Dow finished with yet another gain today

* We closed at 20,775.60

* I've been told that this is the longest consecutive winning streak for the Dow Jones since 1987

* Of course, we all remember how that streak came to a crashing end in October with the 1987 stock market crash

* We'll see if the market has better luck this time around

* We got the FOMC minutes released earlier today

* I think they were interpreted as being hawkish; remember, this is all on a relative scale, they're all doves now

* It is simply degrees of dovishness, there are no actual hawks on the FOMC or on any central bank

* The question is, "Who is more dovish and how dovish can you be?"

* But there were some statements that caused the markets to think, "Hey, maybe a rate hike is coming."

* Because I think the members said it would be appropriate to raise rates sometime soon

* What is sometime soon?

* Is that March, or is that April, May or June?

* That's still soon, in the scheme of things

* If you look at how slowly the Fed has been moving

* Glacial speed, when it comes to raising rates

* Soon can certainly be a few months from now

* It doesn't necessarily mean that it is going to be March

* They could have said March - "It might be appropriate to raise rates in March"

* They didn't say March - they just said soon

* Nobody really knows what soon is

* They did comment that they thought the markets might interpret gradual rate increases as meaning only 1 or 2 rate hikes a year

* And they were troubled by that, because maybe by saying that, by gradual, they mean 3 a year

* Not 1 or 2

* I heard some people saying,

* "Maybe the Fed is not going to go slowly."

* Even if they do 3 - we're still talking very gradual rate hikes, especially if you put it in context of how low rates are right now and how high inflation is already

* I keep hearing these comments from Fed officials

* They're doing interviews and they're saying, "Yes, we're making progress; we're moving slowly toward our goal of 2% inflation."

* 2% inflation!  They left that in the dust

*  The last number we got in January showed a year over year increase of 2.5%

* So why are they saying they're making progress toward getting to 2% when they've already zoomed past it

* They're looking at it now in the rear view mirror


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* The Dow finished with yet another gain today

* We closed at 20,775.60

* I've been told that this is the longest consecutive winning streak for the Dow Jones since 1987

* Of course, we all remember how that streak came to a crashing end in October with the 1987 stock market crash

* We'll see if the market has better luck this time around

* We got the FOMC minutes released earlier today

* I think they were interpreted as being hawkish; remember, this is all on a relative scale, they're all doves now

* It is simply degrees of dovishness, there are no actual hawks on the FOMC or on any central bank

* The question is, "Who is more dovish and how dovish can you be?"

* But there were some statements that caused the markets to think, "Hey, maybe a rate hike is coming."

* Because I think the members said it would be appropriate to raise rates sometime soon

* What is sometime soon?

* Is that March, or is that April, May or June?

* That's still soon, in the scheme of things

* If you look at how slowly the Fed has been moving

* Glacial speed, when it comes to raising rates

* Soon can certainly be a few months from now

* It doesn't necessarily mean that it is going to be March

* They could have said March - "It might be appropriate to raise rates in March"

* They didn't say March - they just said soon

* Nobody really knows what soon is

* They did comment that they thought the markets might interpret gradual rate increases as meaning only 1 or 2 rate hikes a year

* And they were troubled by that, because maybe by saying that, by gradual, they mean 3 a year

* Not 1 or 2

* I heard some people saying,

* "Maybe the Fed is not going to go slowly."

* Even if they do 3 - we're still talking very gradual rate hikes, especially if you put it in context of how low rates are right now and how high inflation is already

* I keep hearing these comments from Fed officials

* They're doing interviews and they're saying, "Yes, we're making progress; we're moving slowly toward our goal of 2% inflation."

* 2% inflation!  They left that in the dust

*  The last number we got in January showed a year over year increase of 2.5%

* So why are they saying they're making progress toward getting to 2% when they've already zoomed past it

* They're looking at it now in the rear view mirror

* We had a very significant day in the currency and gold markets yesterday

* We had some good follow through today that really buttresses the point that I want to make

* We got some economic news that was released yesterday that would have been considered bullish for the dollar and bearish for gold

* By most people, other than me, who trade currencies and who trade gold

* But the fact that gold did not sell off or the dollar did not rally was very significant

* The news was the CPI and Retail Sales

* First of all, Retail Sales came out stronger than expected, they were looking for a gain of .1% and we got a gain of .4%

* They actually revised the prior month's gain from +.6% to  +.1%

* Now a lot of the gain in retail sales, though has to do with the fact that prices are higher

* Retail sales are not adjusted for inflation

* Prices are going up

* Retail sales may be going up, particularly things like gasoline

* It's not just the price of gas that's going up; everything is going up

* The CPI came out at the same time as Retail Sales and that is the bigger number

* We got a .6% rise in consumer prices

* That's versus the expected .3%

* Even the core - you take out food and energy - we were up .3% there versus an estimate of .2%

* Year over year CPI 2.5% that's the official number

* Obviously prices are going up a lot faster than that but according to the government they're going up at 2.5%

* Even if you take out food and energy and just look at the core, year over year the change is 2.3%

* Now remember the Fed is saying their target is 2%

* When Janet Yellen testified this week she said that she's confident this week that we're going to hit her objective

* Well, we've already surpassed her objective


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* We had a very significant day in the currency and gold markets yesterday

* We had some good follow through today that really buttresses the point that I want to make

* We got some economic news that was released yesterday that would have been considered bullish for the dollar and bearish for gold

* By most people, other than me, who trade currencies and who trade gold

* But the fact that gold did not sell off or the dollar did not rally was very significant

* The news was the CPI and Retail Sales

* First of all, Retail Sales came out stronger than expected, they were looking for a gain of .1% and we got a gain of .4%

* They actually revised the prior month's gain from +.6% to  +.1%

* Now a lot of the gain in retail sales, though has to do with the fact that prices are higher

* Retail sales are not adjusted for inflation

* Prices are going up

* Retail sales may be going up, particularly things like gasoline

* It's not just the price of gas that's going up; everything is going up

* The CPI came out at the same time as Retail Sales and that is the bigger number

* We got a .6% rise in consumer prices

* That's versus the expected .3%

* Even the core - you take out food and energy - we were up .3% there versus an estimate of .2%

* Year over year CPI 2.5% that's the official number

* Obviously prices are going up a lot faster than that but according to the government they're going up at 2.5%

* Even if you take out food and energy and just look at the core, year over year the change is 2.3%

* Now remember the Fed is saying their target is 2%

* When Janet Yellen testified this week she said that she's confident this week that we're going to hit her objective

* Well, we've already surpassed her objective

* Today Janet Yellen was up on Capitol Hill, it was the first of her 2-day testimony

* She was before the U.S. Senate today; tomorrow she will be testifying before the House of Representatives

* She talks about monetary policy; we have a bunch of Senators and Congressmen who engage in political grandstanding

* To me, a lot of the people asking Janet Yellen questions are really just trying to speak for sound bites for the media, trying to score brownie points for their constituents

*  One senator had to make some comment about global warming - do you think global warming is one of the things the Fed considers when it sets monetary policy?

* Elizabeth Warren is trying to get Janet Yellen to criticize the Trump administration's efforts to pull back Dodd-Frank

* Because she believes it was the bank that caused the financial crisis

* She doesn't lay any of the blame at the foot of Congress or the Federal Reserve or the artificially low interest rates

* She thinks it was just Wall Street greed that blew up Wall Street and that the reason we haven't had another financial crisis was because of the great legislation Dodd-Frank

* And that somehow, if any bit of that is rolled back,  it's going to unleash another wave of rampant Wall Street speculation and blow up the economy all over again

* Probably one of the dumbest comments from one of the senators is why we need more minorities on the Federal Reserve

* The senator commented to Janet Yellen that we needed more African Americans on the Fed because they represent a significant percentage of the population, of the work force, and they need some representation at the Fed

* I'm thinking, "What is this guy talking about?"

* Do you have to be black to conduct monetary policy on behalf of other blacks?

* Does that mean that only whites can conduct monetary policy for whites?

* What is black monetary policy?


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* Today Janet Yellen was up on Capitol Hill, it was the first of her 2-day testimony

* She was before the U.S. Senate today; tomorrow she will be testifying before the House of Representatives

* She talks about monetary policy; we have a bunch of Senators and Congressmen who engage in political grandstanding

* To me, a lot of the people asking Janet Yellen questions are really just trying to speak for sound bites for the media, trying to score brownie points for their constituents

*  One senator had to make some comment about global warming - do you think global warming is one of the things the Fed considers when it sets monetary policy?

* Elizabeth Warren is trying to get Janet Yellen to criticize the Trump administration's efforts to pull back Dodd-Frank

* Because she believes it was the bank that caused the financial crisis

* She doesn't lay any of the blame at the foot of Congress or the Federal Reserve or the artificially low interest rates

* She thinks it was just Wall Street greed that blew up Wall Street and that the reason we haven't had another financial crisis was because of the great legislation Dodd-Frank

* And that somehow, if any bit of that is rolled back,  it's going to unleash another wave of rampant Wall Street speculation and blow up the economy all over again

* Probably one of the dumbest comments from one of the senators is why we need more minorities on the Federal Reserve

* The senator commented to Janet Yellen that we needed more African Americans on the Fed because they represent a significant percentage of the population, of the work force, and they need some representation at the Fed

* I'm thinking, "What is this guy talking about?"

* Do you have to be black to conduct monetary policy on behalf of other blacks?

* Does that mean that only whites can conduct monetary policy for whites?

* What is black monetary policy?

* I will be in Orlando tomorrow for the Money Show

* I will be there Wednesday and Thursday returning Friday

* I have several speaking events, a couple of workshops

* If you're in the Orlando area, come by, it's free to register online

* You can pick up your badge on site

* We'll have a booth in the exhibit all, you can come by and meet some EuroPac employees

* We look forward to seeing clients and listeners

* Last week I spoke about President Trump and his weak dollar policy

* He thinks the dollar is too low, the euro is too low, the yen is too low, the Chinese yuan is too low

*  Over the weekend Germany's finance minister came out and agreed with President Trump

* He agrees that the euro is too low

* We know that the Bundesbank does not approve of the easy money policies, the QE, the negative interest rates that Draghi and the ECB have force upon them

* I believe that rising German opposition as well as rising inflation both in Germany and throughout the European union will ultimately force the ECB to abandon their monetary policy

* Maybe even at the same time that the Federal Reserve is finally admitting that they're about to ease again

* We got the jobs numbers on Friday, I did a video blog about it

* To me, the numbers seem troubling for the Fed because even though we created better than 200,000 jobs the number of people who rejoined the workforce, who now want jobs jumped dramatically

* So you have a lot of people looking for jobs; the jobs aren't there

* So the unemployment rate is going to come up

* There will be wage pressures, and that is going to push the Fed in an easing direction

* In fact, we got some numbers that came out today on Consumer Credit

* Credit card debt grew by the smallest amount since 2013, which is a good thing

* We don't want consumers taking on credit, it's bad economically to borrow money to consume

* I really made that point in my book, "How an Economy Grows and Why it Crashes"

* If you haven't read it, pick up a copy at schiffbooks.com

* The point is, it's good that consumers are taking on less debt

* Of course, if you're a retailer, and you're depending on those indebted consumers to go deeper into debt to buy your stuff, that's a bad sign


Our Sponsors:
* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com
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* I will be in Orlando tomorrow for the Money Show

* I will be there Wednesday and Thursday returning Friday

* I have several speaking events, a couple of workshops

* If you're in the Orlando area, come by, it's free to register online

* You can pick up your badge on site

* We'll have a booth in the exhibit all, you can come by and meet some EuroPac employees

* We look forward to seeing clients and listeners

* Last week I spoke about President Trump and his weak dollar policy

* He thinks the dollar is too low, the euro is too low, the yen is too low, the Chinese yuan is too low

*  Over the weekend Germany's finance minister came out and agreed with President Trump

* He agrees that the euro is too low

* We know that the Bundesbank does not approve of the easy money policies, the QE, the negative interest rates that Draghi and the ECB have force upon them

* I believe that rising German opposition as well as rising inflation both in Germany and throughout the European union will ultimately force the ECB to abandon their monetary policy

* Maybe even at the same time that the Federal Reserve is finally admitting that they're about to ease again

* We got the jobs numbers on Friday, I did a video blog about it

* To me, the numbers seem troubling for the Fed because even though we created better than 200,000 jobs the number of people who rejoined the workforce, who now want jobs jumped dramatically

* So you have a lot of people looking for jobs; the jobs aren't there

* So the unemployment rate is going to come up

* There will be wage pressures, and that is going to push the Fed in an easing direction

* In fact, we got some numbers that came out today on Consumer Credit

* Credit card debt grew by the smallest amount since 2013, which is a good thing

* We don't want consumers taking on credit, it's bad economically to borrow money to consume

* I really made that point in my book, "How an Economy Grows and Why it Crashes"

* If you haven't read it, pick up a copy at schiffbooks.com

* The point is, it's good that consumers are taking on less debt

* Of course, if you're a retailer, and you're depending on those indebted consumers to go deeper into debt to buy your stuff, that's a bad sign

* Yesterday we got the first jobs report of the year and the way Wall Street and the media seem to be spinning it:

* "It was a good report!"

* It was good news because the headline number beat expectations:

* We created 227,000 jobs in January vs the 175,000 that had been expected

* Of course it was an improvement on the 157,000 jobs which was a disappointing report in December

* But once again, if you look beneath the headline number, you'll find that there are a lot more problems to this report than the media is reporting

* First of all, as always, the lion's share of these jobs are lower-paying service sector jobs

* They're in retail trade, leisure and hospitality

* So we're not creating the types of jobs that will Make America Great Again

* In fact, if you look at the higher paying jobs - manufacturing, mining logging

* These jobs are barely adding workers, if not losing workers

* But the bigger story here has to do with what's happening to labor force participation, wages and unemployment

* The official U3 Unemployment rate went up from 4.7% to 4.8%

* The more revealing U6 number, which I think paints a more accurate picture of the true state of the labor market

* That went up from 9.2% to 9.4%

* Even Donald Trump, when he was campaigning, said that that number was far more accurate than Obama's official numbers

* Why did the unemployment rate go up so much, considering that we had 227,00 jobs created?

*  The reason was that we had over 700,000 workers re-enter the labor force

* This goes against the trend that has dominated the entirety of the Obama administration

* Where we saw a mass exodus of workers leaving the labor force

* In fact, the labor force participation rate went up in January from 62.7% to 62.9%

* First of all, why did so many Americans decide to re-enter the labor force in January?

* Maybe there are 2 possible explanations and maybe they're both accurate:

* One might have to do with all the optimism surrounding the Donald Trump Presidency

* Remember, Donald Trump campaigned that he was going to be the greatest jobs President

* And it's possible that a lot of people believe that this is going to happen

* So they are re-entering the labor force to land one of these great jobs that President Trump will be delivering

* You have to enter the labor force in order to apply for one of these jobs

* Another reason is that the people who have been "sitting out" of labor force participation

* Maybe circumstances are finally catching up with them, maybe they're running out of money

* Maybe the cost of living has risen to the point that they have to, by necessity, find a job


Our Sponsors:
* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com
* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.plaud.ai


Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

* Yesterday we got the first jobs report of the year and the way Wall Street and the media seem to be spinning it:

* "It was a good report!"

* It was good news because the headline number beat expectations:

* We created 227,000 jobs in January vs the 175,000 that had been expected

* Of course it was an improvement on the 157,000 jobs which was a disappointing report in December

* But once again, if you look beneath the headline number, you'll find that there are a lot more problems to this report than the media is reporting

* First of all, as always, the lion's share of these jobs are lower-paying service sector jobs

* They're in retail trade, leisure and hospitality

* So we're not creating the types of jobs that will Make America Great Again

* In fact, if you look at the higher paying jobs - manufacturing, mining logging

* These jobs are barely adding workers, if not losing workers

* But the bigger story here has to do with what's happening to labor force participation, wages and unemployment

* The official U3 Unemployment rate went up from 4.7% to 4.8%

* The more revealing U6 number, which I think paints a more accurate picture of the true state of the labor market

* That went up from 9.2% to 9.4%

* Even Donald Trump, when he was campaigning, said that that number was far more accurate than Obama's official numbers

* Why did the unemployment rate go up so much, considering that we had 227,00 jobs created?

*  The reason was that we had over 700,000 workers re-enter the labor force

* This goes against the trend that has dominated the entirety of the Obama administration

* Where we saw a mass exodus of workers leaving the labor force

* In fact, the labor force participation rate went up in January from 62.7% to 62.9%

* First of all, why did so many Americans decide to re-enter the labor force in January?

* Maybe there are 2 possible explanations and maybe they're both accurate:

* One might have to do with all the optimism surrounding the Donald Trump Presidency

* Remember, Donald Trump campaigned that he was going to be the greatest jobs President

* And it's possible that a lot of people believe that this is going to happen

* So they are re-entering the labor force to land one of these great jobs that President Trump will be delivering

* You have to enter the labor force in order to apply for one of these jobs

* Another reason is that the people who have been "sitting out" of labor force participation

* Maybe circumstances are finally catching up with them, maybe they're running out of money

* Maybe the cost of living has risen to the point that they have to, by necessity, find a job