The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

*  Today the Federal Reserve concluded its 2-day FOMC meeting and it announced - surprise, surprise - that interest rates are not going up

* But of course the statement was much more important than their actions because these days, it doesn't matter what the Fed does; all that matters is what they say they're going to do, or more accurately, what they will pretend to do

* It really doesn't matter what they say, they're not going to do anything

* I explained that on my last podcast; I explained it again on CNBC Futures Now

* People obviously still don't get it and I continue to use the analogy of Teddy Roosevelt's "Speak softly and carry a big stick." but if you have no stick, which is the situation with the Fed, then you have to speak loudly, and if you speak loudly enough, nobody will notice that you have no stick at all

* That's what the Fed did today when they did not raise rates, but released their somewhat hawkish statement, saying that the near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished

* What does that mean?

* We think the economy looks better, and therefore a rate hike might be appropriate

* The Fed said that the job market had strengthened, which it did for one month - we had one strong month, but it is a low bar

* But that is only superficial - when you look beneath the surface, it is worse

* According to the Fed, the job market strengthened and the economy is expanding at a moderate rate

* If we have an strengthening job market and the economy is expanding moderately, why are interest rates still practically zero?

* The Fed mentioned that household spending is growing, but again the bar is set pretty low

* The continued to say that they believe the economy is evolving in a way that will warrant gradual rate hikes

* By gradual they mean, "No more rate hikes."

* They raised rates once in January and they haven't raised them since

* I think the tightening cycle ended when they raised rates, and began when they started to talk about tapering

* We are now in an easing cycle

* Despite some general better-than-expected economic data, we got some very weak news this morning

* We got the number for June Durable Goods and they were looking for a decline of 1.3%

* We got triple that decline: 4% decline and in fact they took the may number down from -2.2% to -2.8%

* Year over year we're down 6.4% - that's a huge decline

* The biggest decline in 2 years

* If you look at the core capital goods, down again 3.7%

* This is a massive streak - we've now seen the year-over-year core number down 18 months in a row

* The longest losing streak in history when the U.S. economy was not in recession

* I believe that this streak will continue and ultimately it will be longest losing streak ever - including recessions

* Which would mean that year-over-year core durable goods would have been weaker during this "recovery" than in any prior recession on record

* What does that tell you about the character about the so-called recovery, if is produces data that is even worse than during an official recession?


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Today the Federal Reserve concluded its 2-day FOMC meeting and it announced - surprise, surprise - that interest rates are not going up

But of course the statement was much more important than their actions because these days, it doesn't matter what the Fed does; all that matters is what they say they're going to do, or more accurately, what they will pretend to do

It really doesn't matter what they say, they're not going to do anything

I explained that on my last podcast; I explained it again on CNBC Futures Now

People obviously still don't get it and I continue to use the analogy of Teddy Roosevelt's "Speak softly and carry a big stick." but if you have no stick, which is the situation with the Fed, then you have to speak loudly, and if you speak loudly enough, nobody will notice that you have no stick at all

That's what the Fed did today when they did not raise rates, but released their somewhat hawkish statement, saying that the near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished

What does that mean?

We think the economy looks better, and therefore a rate hike might be appropriate

The Fed said that the job market had strengthened, which it did for one month - we had one strong month, but it is a low bar

But that is only superficial - when you look beneath the surface, it is worse

According to the Fed, the job market strengthened and the economy is expanding at a moderate rate

If we have an strengthening job market and the economy is expanding moderately, why are interest rates still practically zero?

The Fed mentioned that household spending is growing, but again the bar is set pretty low

The continued to say that they believe the economy is evolving in a way that will warrant gradual rate hikes

By gradual they mean, "No more rate hikes."

They raised rates once in January and they haven't raised them since

I think the tightening cycle ended when they raised rates, and began when they started to talk about tapering

We are now in an easing cycle

Despite some general better-than-expected economic data, we got some very weak news this morning

We got the number for June Durable Goods and they were looking for a decline of 1.3%

We got triple that decline: 4% decline and in fact they took the may number down from -2.2% to -2.8%

Year over year we're down 6.4% - that's a huge decline

The biggest decline in 2 years

If you look at the core capital goods, down again 3.7%

This is a massive streak - we've now seen the year-over-year core number down 18 months in a row

The longest losing streak in history when the U.S. economy was not in recession

I believe that this streak will continue and ultimately it will be longest losing streak ever - including recessions

Which would mean that year-over-year core durable goods would have been weaker during this "recovery" than in any prior recession on record

What does that tell you about the character about the so-called recovery, if is produces data that is even worse than during an official recession?

* It's official. The unthinkable, according to the status quo earlier in the campaign, Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee

* Although many wrote him off as a candidate, I never did; I always said he was being underestimated

* I believed his message would resonate given how horrible the economy actually is and what is really happening beneath the headlines

* Everybody was proclaiming recovery and that we're on the right track and I knew that that wasn't the case

* I knew there would be a lot of dissatisfaction among the electorate on both sides of the aisle

* Even after Donald Trump locked up the Republican nomination, everybody was still writing him off

* The idea was, "He's going to lose in a landslide"

* Republican establishment said, "Abandon ship!", distancing themselves from Trump to maintain the House and the Senate, writing off the White House

* Maybe run against Hillary in 4 years

* That was the general consensus

* Again, I kept saying the the media and the political establishment on both sides were underestimating Donald Trump and the potential appeal of a Trump presidency

* I think that the speech he gave at the convention really proves that point

* I thought his speech was brilliant.

* When I say brilliant, I don't necessarily agree with everything he said; I clearly don't

* I'm talking about the political perspective

* Was this an effective speech to set the tone of the campaign?

* In that respect, I think he hit the ball out of the park

* The most clever thing about his speech is he didn't go after the Republicans

* He went after the Democrats

* He went after their base; their core constituency

* He is bringing the fight to their turf

* He went for the women, he went for the minorities

* Not just African Americans and Latinos, but the LGBTQ and the blue collar workers

* Donald Trump did not go after the entrepreneur

* He didn't promise to get government off your back and free up the businessman from red tape

* That's a typical Republican acceptance speech

* He said, "I'm going to be the champion of the little guy."

* The downtrodden, the forgotten voter

* "I'm your guy! The system has been rigged against you and because I have been part of the problem, I'm the only one who can deliver the solution"

* I think this is a very powerful strategy

* Because the Democrats have been taking their constituency for granted

* What Donald Trump says is, "Why are you blindly supporting the Democratic nominee?"

* What have they done for you? Nothing.

* He will bring up the shocking statistics that have been getting worse under 7 years of Barack Obama

* The horrible unemployment in the African American community

* The inner city crime

* The government dependency.  The despair.

* Why are African Americans handing their votes to a Democrat?

* The Democrats have let them down and failed them

* Donald Trump will say, "I won't do that.  Trust me."

* "I will deliver on the broken promises of generations of Democrats."

* What about women?

* Instead of denying the gender gap, he just accepted it.


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It's official. The unthinkable, according to the status quo earlier in the campaign, Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee

Although many wrote him off as a candidate, I never did; I always said he was being underestimated

I believed his message would resonate given how horrible the economy actually is and what is really happening beneath the headlines

Everybody was proclaiming recovery and that we're on the right track and I knew that that wasn't the case

I knew there would be a lot of dissatisfaction among the electorate on both sides of the aisle

Even after Donald Trump locked up the Republican nomination, everybody was still writing him off

The idea was, "He's going to lose in a landslide"

Republican establishment said, "Abandon ship!", distancing themselves from Trump to maintain the House and the Senate, writing off the White House

Maybe run against Hillary in 4 years

That was the general consensus

Again, I kept saying the the media and the political establishment on both sides were underestimating Donald Trump and the potential appeal of a Trump presidency

I think that the speech he gave at the convention really proves that point

I thought his speech was brilliant.

When I say brilliant, I don't necessarily agree with everything he said; I clearly don't

I'm talking about the political perspective

Was this an effective speech to set the tone of the campaign?

In that respect, I think he hit the ball out of the park

The most clever thing about his speech is he didn't go after the Republicans

He went after the Democrats

He went after their base; their core constituency

He is bringing the fight to their turf

He went for the women, he went for the minorities

Not just African Americans and Latinos, but the LGBTQ and the blue collar workers

Donald Trump did not go after the entrepreneur

He didn't promise to get government off your back and free up the businessman from red tape

That's a typical Republican acceptance speech

He said, "I'm going to be the champion of the little guy."

The downtrodden, the forgotten voter

"I'm your guy! The system has been rigged against you and because I have been part of the problem, I'm the only one who can deliver the solution"

I think this is a very powerful strategy

Because the Democrats have been taking their constituency for granted

What Donald Trump says is, "Why are you blindly supporting the Democratic nominee?"

What have they done for you? Nothing.

He will bring up the shocking statistics that have been getting worse under 7 years of Barack Obama

The horrible unemployment in the African American community

The inner city crime

The government dependency.  The despair.

Why are African Americans handing their votes to a Democrat?

The Democrats have let them down and failed them

Donald Trump will say, "I won't do that.  Trust me."

"I will deliver on the broken promises of generations of Democrats."

What about women?

Instead of denying the gender gap, he just accepted it.

* I was in Las Vegas for the Freedom Fest and following that I went to Vancouver for a one-day gold conference

* One of the things I wanted to discuss was some discussion about me on the www.kitco.com website and I think it was prompted by my itnterview with kitco, which you can see on my YouTube Channel

* Whenever there is a discussion about me an argument develops between those who want to believe I never get anything right and those with believe I get a lot of things right

* I thought one part of the discussion was quite amusing

* Of course, I never claim to be infallible; when you make a lot of projections they don't all turn out to be right

* Nobody is 100% right on anything that they say

* The key is, are you right more often than you are wrong

* And when you're wrong, do you change your mind, when the facts change, which is something that I do

* But people will always go back and focus on a quote from years ago and say, "Look here's a quote from Peter Schiff saying interest rates would go up, and Look! now they're down"

* I did not expect the bond bubble to get this big

* Who thought we'd have half of the sovereign debt trading for negative yields?

* Very few people envisioned that, but it happened

* For the last several years I have said nothing about higher interest rates

* I do believe that when the bond bubble bursts rates will spike up

* But I don't know when that is going to happen

* If you've made enough forecasts, one can always find things that have not panned out

* But these people overlook the overwhelming number of forecasts I've gotten right

* One of the forecasts people used to make fun of me about was a forecast I made on a show called, "Southland Today"

* I put that up on the internet years ago, it's a 2002 interview and if you watch that clip, you'll recognize that a lot of the things I said in that interview were used to form the introduction to the old, "Wall Street Unspun" the precursor to the Peter Schiff Show

* The intro for that show included many quotes that were lifted from the "Southland Today" interview

* During that interview, I said I thought the Dow would go down to 4000

* Of course a lot happened between 2002 and now

* What did happen is that after I did that interview the market fell precipitously; the Dow did drop another 25-30%

* The NASDAQ maybe even more

* What happened between that interview and the market falling is that Alan Greenspan slashed interest rates down to 1%, and at the time of the interview I did not know he was going to do that

* I thought Alan Greenspan would be smarter than that

* If Alan Greenspan had not slashed interest rates, my forecast would have been correct

* Once Greenspan lowered interest rates, of course, I changed my forecast and became bullish on the market when it was still quite a bit lower

* 6yyj6e69


Our Sponsors:
* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com
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I was in Las Vegas for the Freedom Fest and following that I went to Vancouver for a one-day gold conference

One of the things I wanted to discuss was some discussion about me on the www.kitco.com website and I think it was prompted by my itnterview with kitco, which you can see on my YouTube Channel

Whenever there is a discussion about me an argument develops between those who want to believe I never get anything right and those with believe I get a lot of things right

I thought one part of the discussion was quite amusing

Of course, I never claim to be infallible; when you make a lot of projections they don't all turn out to be right

Nobody is 100% right on anything that they say

The key is, are you right more often than you are wrong

And when you're wrong, do you change your mind, when the facts change, which is something that I do

But people will always go back and focus on a quote from years ago and say, "Look here's a quote from Peter Schiff saying interest rates would go up, and Look! now they're down"

I did not expect the bond bubble to get this big

Who thought we'd have half of the sovereign debt trading for negative yields?

Very few people envisioned that, but it happened

For the last several years I have said nothing about higher interest rates

I do believe that when the bond bubble bursts rates will spike up

But I don't know when that is going to happen

If you've made enough forecasts, one can always find things that have not panned out

But these people overlook the overwhelming number of forecasts I've gotten right

One of the forecasts people used to make fun of me about was a forecast I made on a show called, "Southland Today"

I put that up on the internet years ago, it's a 2002 interview and if you watch that clip, you'll recognize that a lot of the things I said in that interview were used to form the introduction to the old, "Wall Street Unspun" the precursor to the Peter Schiff Show

The intro for that show included many quotes that were lifted from the "Southland Today" interview

During that interview, I said I thought the Dow would go down to 4000

Of course a lot happened between 2002 and now

What did happen is that after I did that interview the market fell precipitously; the Dow did drop another 25-30%

The NASDAQ maybe even more

What happened between that interview and the market falling is that Alan Greenspan slashed interest rates down to 1%, and at the time of the interview I did not know he was going to do that

I thought Alan Greenspan would be smarter than that

If Alan Greenspan had not slashed interest rates, my forecast would have been correct

Once Greenspan lowered interest rates, of course, I changed my forecast and became bullish on the market when it was still quite a bit lower

6yyj6e69

* I'm sitting with Josh Crumb, the co-founder of a company that was originally called BitGold but following the acquisition of James Turk's GoldMoney they rebranded their company as GoldMoney

* I agree with that decision because I think GoldMoney is more descriptive of what they are really doing with gold, than is BitGold

* But the reason we're sitting here today is because I was so impressed with their company after having lengthy conversations with the other co-founder, Roy Sebag, that I really agreed with Roy and I thought that the best thing for us to do was to join forces and to combine both companies to the mutual benefit of both investors and, more importantly customers of both my company SchiffGold, and GoldMoney

* So we've agreed on a merger and we've formed a joint venture between the two companies

* What I wanted to announce today is what this new joint venture means for current customers of my company, SchiffGold

* One of the things customers might be thinking is: "Does this mean that my experience is going to change?"

* GoldMoney (BitGold) is much more of an internet-based program where people are not interacting with live representatives

* The answer to that question is no.

* Nothing is going to change regarding the our customers' relationships with SchiffGold

* In fact, what we're hoping to achieve is to bring some of that personal service to the current GoldMoney customers


Our Sponsors:
* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com
* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.plaud.ai


Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

* Today we got the Non-Farm Payroll report for the month of June

* Remember the last 2 reports were quite weak and everybody was hoping for a rebound in June to prove that April and May were a fluke and not a new trend

* In fact the Fed talked about that in their last FOMC meeting minutes

* The consensus was for 180,000 jobs to be created and the range went from a low of 130,000 to as high as 235,000

* The consensus average of that range was 180,000

* The actual number came in at 287,000, over 100,000 jobs above the consensus

* Now we did revise down the really bad number from May, and made it even worse

* Initially that number was 38,000 jobs and now we know it was just 11,000 jobs

* So about 70% of the jobs disappeared

* I have a good feeling that the reason June's number is so high is that it's just wrong, and we'll see what kind of revision we get to it next month

* Remember, a good chunk of these numbers are jobs that the government assumes were created without evidence, based on the birth-death model

* I would suggest that far fewer businesses are actually being formed than the government believes

* In fact, its possible that more business are shutting down than are hiring

* Given the economy and the minimum wage, those business that are starting up are hiring fewer people than start-up historically hire

* I think these guesstimates are wildly optimistic and skewing all the numbers

* Unemployment rate, which was 4.7 last month and expected to notch up to 4.8, instead notched up higher to 4.9

* Private payrolls which were expected to rise by $170,000 jumped by $265,000

* But last month they revised a $25,000 gain to a $6,000 loss

* Why did unemployment move up? Because the labor force participation rate notched up from 62.6 to 62.7

* Obviously not all the people who re-joined the labor force could find jobs

* Average hourly earnings were expected to rise by .2%

* Again they disappointed; they rose by just .1%

* Overall, a mixed picture, but the headline number, the 287,000 vs 180,000 consensus

* That's normally the number the market trades off

* And that is exactly what happened - as soon as the report came out we had a big jump in the dollar index and we had a big selloff in Gold

* Gold started out largely unchanged, went down about $22 on the news

* Silver sold off, it was down about 40-50 cents

* That was the knee-jerk reaction: strong dollar, weak gold, weak silver

* Why?

* A strong jobs number means the Fed is more likely to raise rates, right?

* Rate hike is coming, good for the dollar, bad for gold

* But what did I say on Wednesday's podcast?

* I said that it didn't matter what the jobs number was

* That gold was not going to go down, and if it was a weak number, I expected a big rally in gold

* But I also said that a strong number would not hurt gold

* Earlier in the year, a strong number would crush gold

* I said that what's going on, and based on the latest FOMC minutes, I don't care what the jobs number is

* The Fed is not going to raise rates

* Jobs have nothing to do with it, Jobs are the excuse

* The Fed can't raise rates now because of the fragility in the banking system, all the things that were revealed by Brexit

* The market is sensing that and that's why within the first hour gold reversed all of its losses and finished the day up about $5.60 at $1365.40

* The highest close of the year on a day when we had a huge beat in the Non-Farm Payrolls

* Silver had an even more impressive reversal; it rallied over $1

* Stocks really broke out; the GDX was up over 30% today to close at $30.54

* Not quite the highest close of the year

Our Sponsors:
* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com
* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.plaud.ai


Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Today we got the Non-Farm Payroll report for the month of June

Remember the last 2 reports were quite weak and everybody was hoping for a rebound in June to prove that April and May were a fluke and not a new trend

In fact the Fed talked about that in their last FOMC meeting minutes

The consensus was for 180,000 jobs to be created and the range went from a low of 130,000 to as high as 235,000

The consensus average of that range was 180,000

The actual number came in at 287,000, over 100,000 jobs above the consensus

Now we did revise down the really bad number from May, and made it even worse

Initially that number was 38,000 jobs and now we know it was just 11,000 jobs

So about 70% of the jobs disappeared

I have a good feeling that the reason June's number is so high is that it's just wrong, and we'll see what kind of revision we get to it next month

Remember, a good chunk of these numbers are jobs that the government assumes were created without evidence, based on the birth-death model

I would suggest that far fewer businesses are actually being formed than the government believes

In fact, its possible that more business are shutting down than are hiring

Given the economy and the minimum wage, those business that are starting up are hiring fewer people than start-up historically hire

I think these guesstimates are wildly optimistic and skewing all the numbers

Unemployment rate, which was 4.7 last month and expected to notch up to 4.8, instead notched up higher to 4.9

Private payrolls which were expected to rise by $170,000 jumped by $265,000

But last month they revised a $25,000 gain to a $6,000 loss

Why did unemployment move up? Because the labor force participation rate notched up from 62.6 to 62.7

Obviously not all the people who re-joined the labor force could find jobs

Average hourly earnings were expected to rise by .2%

Again they disappointed; they rose by just .1%

Overall, a mixed picture, but the headline number, the 287,000 vs 180,000 consensus

That's normally the number the market trades off

And that is exactly what happened - as soon as the report came out we had a big jump in the dollar index and we had a big selloff in Gold

Gold started out largely unchanged, went down about $22 on the news

Silver sold off, it was down about 40-50 cents

That was the knee-jerk reaction: strong dollar, weak gold, weak silver

Why?

A strong jobs number means the Fed is more likely to raise rates, right?

Rate hike is coming, good for the dollar, bad for gold

But what did I say on Wednesday's podcast?

I said that it didn't matter what the jobs number was

That gold was not going to go down, and if it was a weak number, I expected a big rally in gold

But I also said that a strong number would not hurt gold

Earlier in the year, a strong number would crush gold

I said that what's going on, and based on the latest FOMC minutes, I don't care what the jobs number is

The Fed is not going to raise rates

Jobs have nothing to do with it, Jobs are the excuse

The Fed can't raise rates now because of the fragility in the banking system, all the things that were revealed by Brexit

The market is sensing that and that's why within the first hour gold reversed all of its losses and finished the day up about $5.60 at $1365.40

The highest close of the year on a day when we had a huge beat in the Non-Farm Payrolls

Silver had an even more impressive reversal; it rallied over $1

Stocks really broke out; the GDX was up over 30% today to close at $30.54

Not quite the highest close of the year

Many silver and gold stocks hit 52-week highs today, some hit 2 or 3-year highs

The overall stock market was also up just under 80 points; the Dow was up 250

We have now recovered all of the post-Brexit losses

The Dow now back up around 18,000

The foreign markets have done so much better, particularly the markets I'm involved in

I'm sitting with Josh Crumb, the co-founder of a company that was originally called BitGold but following the acquisition of James Turk's GoldMoney they rebranded their company as GoldMoney

I agree with that decision because I think GoldMoney is more descriptive of what they are really doing with gold, than is BitGold

But the reason we're sitting here today is because I was so impressed with their company after having lengthy conversations with the other co-founder, Roy Sebag, that I really agreed with Roy and I thought that the best thing for us to do was to join forces and to combine both companies to the mutual benefit of both investors and, more importantly customers of both my company SchiffGold, and GoldMoney

So we've agreed on a merger and we've formed a joint venture between the two companies

What I wanted to announce today is what this new joint venture means for current customers of my company, SchiffGold

One of the things customers might be thinking is: "Does this mean that my experience is going to change?"

GoldMoney (BitGold) is much more of an internet-based program where people are not interacting with live representatives

The answer to that question is no.

Nothing is going to change regarding the our customers' relationships with SchiffGold

In fact, what we're hoping to achieve is to bring some of that personal service to the current GoldMoney customers