* This is the first podcast I've been able to record since the death of my father, Irwin Schiff, who passed away on Friday

* If you're interested in learning more about him and the circumstances surrounding his death, I would encourage you to read my commentary, "The Death of a Patriot"

* There also links to many other articles written about him on my Facebook page

* You can also find on my YouTube channel, my father's debate for the 1996 Libertarian Nomination for President

* You can also find on the internet a video he created called, "The Secrets of a Tax Free Life"

* He died in jail because of his political beliefs and for standing up for his Constitutional rights

* While in prison, my father got insufficient medical care, he lost all his teeth, lost his eyesight and eventually died of cancer

* In my father's case, even if he were wrong, the penalty should have been a civil case

* My father was steadfast in his beliefs, and did not want to be released unless he won his appeals

* The Dow was up more than 300 points today

* The strength came from the ECB, as Draghi suggested that the ECB was considering expanding QE

* The ECB is trying to talk the euro down

* The ECB did not actually do anything, they just jaw-boned the markets with the idea of more QE

* This was a euro story - the dollar was only up against the euro

* The New Zealand dollar was up 1.3% against the U.S. dollar

* Gold was up 2% in terms of euros

* Silver was up .15 in dollars despite the big jump in the dollar index

* This lays more foundation for the Fed not to raise rates

* At some point, I think the Fed will another round of QE

* The reason Draghi suggested QE was over fears that inflation is too low

* It is running at .9%, but according the ECB, the holy grail is 1.9%

* Draghi was asked why he is spending so much money to raise inflation when he earlier said that low inflation is good for purchasing power

* How does the ECB think they can pinpoint inflation to exactly 1.9%?

* Draghi's answer was that low inflation makes debt harder to repay

* What Draghi is saying is that it doesn't reduce debt enough

* Why is it good to transfer wealth from creditors to debtors?

* He also said that with low inflation, real wages will rise

* Why is this a problem? Because the government artificially boosted wages in the first place expecting inflation to mitigate their true effect in the economy

* What's really too high is not so much wages as labor costs, due to government mandates

* We want workers to have higher wages in a free market based on their productivity

* All that is undermined in the ECB's quest to generate inflation

* Draghi also questions the accuracy of is numbers

* Central bankers are trying to prop up the stock market and the government

* The real debt the central banks want to wipe out is government debt

* This is not what central banks are supposed t do, they're supposed to be independent

* Another reason the U.S. market might have been strong is because of all the weak economic data that came out

* Housing was stronger than expected, but everything else was pretty weak

* The Chicago Fed National Activity Index, which was -.41 came in at -.37 - back to back bad months

* Also leading economic indicators experience their biggest drop in almost 3 years to -.2

* Last month was also revised down

* Also the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index negative again

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This is the first podcast I've been able to record since the death of my father, Irwin Schiff, who passed away on Friday

If you're interested in learning more about him and the circumstances surrounding his death, I would encourage you to read my commentary, "The Death of a Patriot"

There also links to many other articles written about him on my Facebook page

You can also find on my YouTube channel, my father's debate for the 1996 Libertarian Nomination for President

You can also find on the internet a video he created called, "The Secrets of a Tax Free Life"

He died in jail because of his political beliefs and for standing up for his Constitutional rights

While in prison, my father got insufficient medical care, he lost all his teeth, lost his eyesight and eventually died of cancer

In my father's case, even if he were wrong, the penalty should have been a civil case

My father was steadfast in his beliefs, and did not want to be released unless he won his appeals

The Dow was up more than 300 points today

The strength came from the ECB, as Draghi suggested that the ECB was considering expanding QE

The ECB is trying to talk the euro down

The ECB did not actually do anything, they just jaw-boned the markets with the idea of more QE

This was a euro story - the dollar was only up against the euro

The New Zealand dollar was up 1.3% against the U.S. dollar

Gold was up 2% in terms of euros

Silver was up .15 in dollars despite the big jump in the dollar index

This lays more foundation for the Fed not to raise rates

At some point, I think the Fed will another round of QE

The reason Draghi suggested QE was over fears that inflation is too low

It is running at .9%, but according the ECB, the holy grail is 1.9%

Draghi was asked why he is spending so much money to raise inflation when he earlier said that low inflation is good for purchasing power

How does the ECB think they can pinpoint inflation to exactly 1.9%?

Draghi's answer was that low inflation makes debt harder to repay

What Draghi is saying is that it doesn't reduce debt enough

Why is it good to transfer wealth from creditors to debtors?

He also said that with low inflation, real wages will rise

Why is this a problem? Because the government artificially boosted wages in the first place expecting inflation to mitigate their true effect in the economy

What's really too high is not so much wages as labor costs, due to government mandates

We want workers to have higher wages in a free market based on their productivity

All that is undermined in the ECB's quest to generate inflation

Draghi also questions the accuracy of is numbers

Central bankers are trying to prop up the stock market and the government

The real debt the central banks want to wipe out is government debt

This is not what central banks are supposed t do, they're supposed to be independent

Another reason the U.S. market might have been strong is because of all the weak economic data that came out

Housing was stronger than expected, but everything else was pretty weak

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index, which was -.41 came in at -.37 - back to back bad months

Also leading economic indicators experience their biggest drop in almost 3 years to -.2

Last month was also revised down

Also the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index negative again

Bloomberg's economic expectations index is at its lowest level since 2013

All these indicators suggest recession on the horizon

This is music to the ears of Wall Street traders because it means the Fed will continue to play the cheap money tune

I don't think the smaller countries that don't have debt problem will follow the Pied Pipers of inflation down the primrose path

I think you are going to see a big drop in the dollar

There are currencies that are gaining strength and will continue to gain strength especially with the Fed has to come clean

* We finally got some economic news today, all of it bad

* All of it "unexpected"...

* Hope springs eternal on Wall Street

* That's why the Federal Reserve can maintain its forecast of an interest rate hike before the end of the year

* Although now a second Fed official has come out saying he doesn't think a rate hike will be appropriate this year

* All this was forecasted by me; there was a method to their madness to maintain the theater that a rate hike is even possible

* When is the Fed going to admit that their earlier forecast of a big recovery and liftoff is wrong?

* CNBC finally admitted they do not want me on because I correctly predicted that the Fed would not raise rates

* The same is true for Bloomberg

* However,  the last time I was on Fox Business, that video on my YouTube Channel got over 80,000 views

* That is probably more people who viewed the live show!

* By the way, don't forget to like me on Facebook follow me on Twitter and and subscribe to my YouTube Channel

* It's not going to be too much longer before more and more people will agree the Fed is not going to raise rates

* If I am right and the Fed launches QE4, it will be hard for the conventional media to ignore me - I am not saying it will be impossible, though

* These podcasts are developing a greater and greater audience, and you can help spread the word by sharing them, to get the word out

* Let's get to the economic data, starting with the Weekly Mortgage Applications

* This number was significant in the precipitous 27.6% drop in the composite index with purchased mortgages dropping 34%

* Part of this was due to last week's big jump as mortgage applicants tried to get ahead of new government rules

* But the drop is much bigger than the pop - this is a bad sign

* The consensus forecast for the Producer Price Index was for month over month prices to drop .2% instead they dropped .5%

* Year over year, down 1.1%; last month it was down .8%

* This is bad news to the Fed, which is looking for higher inflation

* The real negative news was the September Retail Sales Number

* It was expected to be weak, up only .1 and that's what we got, but last month's .2 number was revised down to flat

* Now we're up .1 from zero, meaning August and September Retail Sales missed expectations

* This will pull numbers away from Q3 GDP

* I think we will get Q3 GDP below 1%

* It might be below zero, which will be the first half of a recession

* We also got Business inventories, which were unchanged, but the inventory ot sales ration popped up to 1.37 - that ties the high for the move

* This glut of product is bad news for the economy

* The last 2 times we had inventory to sales ration this high, we were already in recession - 2001 and 2008

* The worst news was Walmart's bombshell announcement that profits are suffering due to labor costs

* Their sales are suffering, too

* 75% of the losses are due to higher wages and the balance came from lower sales

* Walmart is the nation's biggest retailer and should benefit most from a stronger dollar and cheap gas

* Walmart's stock was down 10% on the day, one of the worst days in the history of Walmart

* YTD, it is down 33% from its highs - a super bear market for Walmart

* The Left proclaims that Walmart is getting rich on the backs of the workers - a collapse in Walmart stock price is not good for workers because profits are what creates the jobs

Our Sponsors:
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We finally got some economic news today, all of it bad

All of it "unexpected"...

Hope springs eternal on Wall Street

That's why the Federal Reserve can maintain its forecast of an interest rate hike before the end of the year

Although now a second Fed official has come out saying he doesn't think a rate hike will be appropriate this year

All this was forecasted by me; there was a method to their madness to maintain the theater that a rate hike is even possible

When is the Fed going to admit that their earlier forecast of a big recovery and liftoff is wrong?

CNBC finally admitted they do not want me on because I correctly predicted that the Fed would not raise rates

The same is true for Bloomberg

However,  the last time I was on Fox Business, that video on my YouTube Channel got over 80,000 views

That is probably more people who viewed the live show!

By the way, don't forget to like me on Facebook follow me on Twitter and and subscribe to my YouTube Channel

It's not going to be too much longer before more and more people will agree the Fed is not going to raise rates

If I am right and the Fed launches QE4, it will be hard for the conventional media to ignore me - I am not saying it will be impossible, though

These podcasts are developing a greater and greater audience, and you can help spread the word by sharing them, to get the word out

Let's get to the economic data, starting with the Weekly Mortgage Applications

This number was significant in the precipitous 27.6% drop in the composite index with purchased mortgages dropping 34%

Part of this was due to last week's big jump as mortgage applicants tried to get ahead of new government rules

But the drop is much bigger than the pop - this is a bad sign

The consensus forecast for the Producer Price Index was for month over month prices to drop .2% instead they dropped .5%

Year over year, down 1.1%; last month it was down .8%

This is bad news to the Fed, which is looking for higher inflation

The real negative news was the September Retail Sales Number

It was expected to be weak, up only .1 and that's what we got, but last month's .2 number was revised down to flat

Now we're up .1 from zero, meaning August and September Retail Sales missed expectations

This will pull numbers away from Q3 GDP

I think we will get Q3 GDP below 1%

It might be below zero, which will be the first half of a recession

We also got Business inventories, which were unchanged, but the inventory ot sales ration popped up to 1.37 - that ties the high for the move

This glut of product is bad news for the economy

The last 2 times we had inventory to sales ration this high, we were already in recession - 2001 and 2008

The worst news was Walmart's bombshell announcement that profits are suffering due to labor costs

Their sales are suffering, too

75% of the losses are due to higher wages and the balance came from lower sales

Walmart is the nation's biggest retailer and should benefit most from a stronger dollar and cheap gas

Walmart's stock was down 10% on the day, one of the worst days in the history of Walmart

YTD, it is down 33% from its highs - a super bear market for Walmart

The Left proclaims that Walmart is getting rich on the backs of the workers - a collapse in Walmart stock price is not good for workers because profits are what creates the jobs

This is a sign - Walmart is where America shops - if Walmart is having a problem, other retailers are having problems

I predicted that we would get a pop in the market out of the jobs number but I did not think it would make a new high - that's what happened

In order for the market to reach a new high, it needs QE4

As a result of this bad news, we got a decline in the market

The Dow was down 160 points, but gold had a great day

Gold was up about $20 Silver was up above $16

The Gold Stocks Index (GDX) was up 7% on the day

Oil stocks were higher

* The Dow Jones finished up almost 140 points - back over 17000

* The Dow has now rallied 1,000 points since its lows on Friday following the lower than expected Non-Farm Payroll number

* The market originally sold off until traders realized that bad news is good news and they bought the dip

* The buying intensified today following the release of the FOMC minutes from the last meeting

* I predicted the markets would experience a rally based on the weak Non-Farm Payrol number

* The U.S. market looks like it's standing still compared to the markets overseas

* Now that so many traders are starting to connect the dots and realize that a rate hike is not around the corner we've seen a huge rally in overseas stocks, particularly in emerging markets

* All currencies continue to gain against the dollar

* Silver prices earlier in the week hit a 3-1/2 month high

* Gold got back above 1150

* Oil prices are close to $50/barrel

* All of this is happening because traders are beginning to pare back their rate hike bets

* In light of today's release of the dovish September FOMC meeting minutes the trend will intensify

* Why were people surprised by the dovish minutes?

* If you read the minutes, the real reason the Fed did not raise rates is because inflation is too low

* They also said they would risk credibility raising rates below 2%

* Lose credibility with whom?

* If they are afraid to raise rates with inflation below 2%, they why have they been bluffing that they are about to raise rates?

* The official inflation number has been below 2% the entire time they have been talking about a rate hike

* I have been saying that they will continue to pretend to raise rates, but they won't

* I thought it was funny that Netflix raised their rates 11% - the Fed must have thought this was good news

* The real reason the Fed won't rais rates is that they don't want to prick the bubbles

* We have a bubble in the stock market

* A bubble in the real estate market

* A bubble in the bond market

* Auto loans, student loans, consumer credit, art - you name it

* The Fed doesn't want the government to deal with higher interest rates

* Look at the headline in the Wall Street Journal about foreign central banks beginning to dump treasuries

* Look at how many treasuries China has sold

* This is the tip of a huge iceberg

* How is the Fed going to end QE when it has to take the other side of the mother of all trades?

* CNBC cited overseas problems washing up on our shore as the reason why the Fed won't be raising rates - these are not overseas problems

* The problems started here - they're just coming back

* The overseas markets were reacting to higher interest rates and a strong dollar

* This game is going to end - the next time the dollar goes down, it's down for the count

* Rather than having foreign central banks coming to its rescue, they are going to be joining in the dollar selloff just like everybody else

* I wanted to comment on an Robert Wenzel's article in the Economic Policy Journal

* Wenzel appears to be referring to me but does not mention my name

* Here's the title of his piece, dated September 18, following the most recent Fed meeting:

* "The Absurd Idea That The Fed is Not Going to Raise Rates"

* Wenzel refers to "certain so-called Austrians out cheering that they were proven correct in their view that the Fed will not raise rates..."

* Many people commented that he must be referring to Peter Schiff, but he denied this

* Wenzel seems to believe I do not think the Fed should raise rates

* I am not saying what I think the Fed should do, I'm saying what I think they will do

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The Dow Jones finished up almost 140 points - back over 17000

The Dow has now rallied 1,000 points since its lows on Friday following the lower than expected Non-Farm Payroll number

The market originally sold off until traders realized that bad news is good news and they bought the dip

The buying intensified today following the release of the FOMC minutes from the last meeting

I predicted the markets would experience a rally based on the weak Non-Farm Payrol number

The U.S. market looks like it's standing still compared to the markets overseas

Now that so many traders are starting to connect the dots and realize that a rate hike is not around the corner we've seen a huge rally in overseas stocks, particularly in emerging markets

All currencies continue to gain against the dollar

Silver prices earlier in the week hit a 3-1/2 month high

Gold got back above 1150

Oil prices are close to $50/barrel

All of this is happening because traders are beginning to pare back their rate hike bets

In light of today's release of the dovish September FOMC meeting minutes the trend will intensify

Why were people surprised by the dovish minutes?

If you read the minutes, the real reason the Fed did not raise rates is because inflation is too low

They also said they would risk credibility raising rates below 2%

Lose credibility with whom?

If they are afraid to raise rates with inflation below 2%, they why have they been bluffing that they are about to raise rates?

The official inflation number has been below 2% the entire time they have been talking about a rate hike

I have been saying that they will continue to pretend to raise rates, but they won't

I thought it was funny that Netflix raised their rates 11% - the Fed must have thought this was good news

The real reason the Fed won't rais rates is that they don't want to prick the bubbles

We have a bubble in the stock market

A bubble in the real estate market

A bubble in the bond market

Auto loans, student loans, consumer credit, art - you name it

The Fed doesn't want the government to deal with higher interest rates

Look at the headline in the Wall Street Journal about foreign central banks beginning to dump treasuries

Look at how many treasuries China has sold

This is the tip of a huge iceberg

How is the Fed going to end QE when it has to take the other side of the mother of all trades?

CNBC cited overseas problems washing up on our shore as the reason why the Fed won't be raising rates - these are not overseas problems

The problems started here - they're just coming back

The overseas markets were reacting to higher interest rates and a strong dollar

This game is going to end - the next time the dollar goes down, it's down for the count

Rather than having foreign central banks coming to its rescue, they are going to be joining in the dollar selloff just like everybody else

I wanted to comment on an Robert Wenzel's article in the Economic Policy Journal

Wenzel appears to be referring to me but does not mention my name

Here's the title of his piece, dated September 18, following the most recent Fed meeting:

"The Absurd Idea That The Fed is Not Going to Raise Rates"

Wenzel refers to "certain so-called Austrians out cheering that they were proven correct in their view that the Fed will not raise rates..."

Many people commented that he must be referring to Peter Schiff, but he denied this

Wenzel seems to believe I do not think the Fed should raise rates

I am not saying what I think the Fed should do, I'm saying what I think they will do

I don't think zero percent interest rates and QE is good for the economy - of course not!

I also know if they do raise rates now, we are going to have a recession

If Wenzel is an Austrian, he knows the economy is in terrible shape

Ultimately this article will look absurd because the Fed is not going to raise rates until the market forces them, and not before

* It is the first Friday of the month, and that means that this morning we got the September Non-Farm Payroll number

* Anyone who has listened to my podcasts and video blogs knows that for months I have criticized these so-called strong jobs reports

* I think what's going on is a transformation of the economy from full-time jobs to part-time jobs and that necessitates creating more jobs that you destroy, but the real story is beneath the surface

* The report we got today was one of the weakest reports relative to expectations than we've had in years

* This may be the final missing piece to the economic puzzle that shows that the economy is not as strong as everybody, including the Fed pretends it to be

* And that the rate hikes expected to be around the corner are a distant blur on the horizon

* Soon more will join me in recognizing the more QE is coming

* Of course QE is not medicine; it is toxic

* Let's get down to the tale of the tape with the jobs numbers

* First, the bigger number is the August number, which was expected to be revised up, was revised down to 136,000 jobs

* July was also revised down

* The September number was expected to be 203,000 and actually came in at 142,000

* This is an average of 163,000 jobs for the last 3 months

* Six of the last 8 jobs numbers have been revised downward

* The August labor force participation rate was 62.6, which was the lowest of the "recovery"

* The September rate dropped another .2 to 62.4, which is the lowest since 1977

* Another 579,000 left the labor force in September - now there are 94.6 million Americans not working

* Average hourly earnings, expected to rise .2, remained flat

* In fact, the average work week declined from 34.6 to 34.5

* If you remember, what has Janet Yellen stated as a requirement for a Fed rate hike? - An improvement in the labor market.

* The labor market was singled out as a reason why rates remained at zero in September

* While others speculated that rates might hike in October or December, I said the labor market is not going to improve, so the Fed will not raise rates

* Janet Yellen is looking at labor force participation, which has declined to a new low

* Yellen is also looking for an improvement in wages - that is going the other way

* If you also look at the details of this jobs report, you'll see that jobs created are low-paying jobs and jobs lost are higher-paying jobs

* For example, we lost jobs in wholesale trade, manufacturing and logging - those are good-paying blue collar jobs

* We gained jobs in leisure and hospitality, education and healthcare, retail trade - and a lot of these jobs are temporary or part time

* This is why there is not real recovery, why people can't save or buy houses

* This weak jobs number is another excuse for the Fed not to raise rates

* Some are pointing to this jobs number as proof of the Fed's wisdom in not raising rates in September

* However, Yellen stated that rates would go up if the economy continues to improve as the Fed expects - but the economy is getting worse

* I've always said that the Fed does not want to raise rates because it does not want to look foolish if it has to back down from a rate hike

* We got more economic data today: factory orders wer down 1.7% worse than the expected number of -1.3%

* Also, last month's number was revised down, making this the tenth month in a row that factory orders have been down, year over year

* This only happens in a recession

* Maybe we are in a recession

* We don't have Q3 GDP numbers yet, but yesterday the Atlanta Fed reduced its Q3 estimate to .9

* The consensus on Wall Street and at the Fed is still 2.5

* I think that given this jobs number,

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It is the first Friday of the month, and that means that this morning we got the September Non-Farm Payroll number

Anyone who has listened to my podcasts and video blogs knows that for months I have criticized these so-called strong jobs reports

I think what's going on is a transformation of the economy from full-time jobs to part-time jobs and that necessitates creating more jobs that you destroy, but the real story is beneath the surface

The report we got today was one of the weakest reports relative to expectations than we've had in years

This may be the final missing piece to the economic puzzle that shows that the economy is not as strong as everybody, including the Fed pretends it to be

And that the rate hikes expected to be around the corner are a distant blur on the horizon

Soon more will join me in recognizing the more QE is coming

Of course QE is not medicine; it is toxic

Let's get down to the tale of the tape with the jobs numbers

First, the bigger number is the August number, which was expected to be revised up, was revised down to 136,000 jobs

July was also revised down

The September number was expected to be 203,000 and actually came in at 142,000

This is an average of 163,000 jobs for the last 3 months

Six of the last 8 jobs numbers have been revised downward

The August labor force participation rate was 62.6, which was the lowest of the "recovery"

The September rate dropped another .2 to 62.4, which is the lowest since 1977

Another 579,000 left the labor force in September - now there are 94.6 million Americans not working

Average hourly earnings, expected to rise .2, remained flat

In fact, the average work week declined from 34.6 to 34.5

If you remember, what has Janet Yellen stated as a requirement for a Fed rate hike? - An improvement in the labor market.

The labor market was singled out as a reason why rates remained at zero in September

While others speculated that rates might hike in October or December, I said the labor market is not going to improve, so the Fed will not raise rates

Janet Yellen is looking at labor force participation, which has declined to a new low

Yellen is also looking for an improvement in wages - that is going the other way

If you also look at the details of this jobs report, you'll see that jobs created are low-paying jobs and jobs lost are higher-paying jobs

For example, we lost jobs in wholesale trade, manufacturing and logging - those are good-paying blue collar jobs

We gained jobs in leisure and hospitality, education and healthcare, retail trade - and a lot of these jobs are temporary or part time

This is why there is not real recovery, why people can't save or buy houses

This weak jobs number is another excuse for the Fed not to raise rates

Some are pointing to this jobs number as proof of the Fed's wisdom in not raising rates in September

However, Yellen stated that rates would go up if the economy continues to improve as the Fed expects - but the economy is getting worse

I've always said that the Fed does not want to raise rates because it does not want to look foolish if it has to back down from a rate hike

We got more economic data today: factory orders wer down 1.7% worse than the expected number of -1.3%

Also, last month's number was revised down, making this the tenth month in a row that factory orders have been down, year over year

This only happens in a recession

Maybe we are in a recession

We don't have Q3 GDP numbers yet, but yesterday the Atlanta Fed reduced its Q3 estimate to .9

The consensus on Wall Street and at the Fed is still 2.5

I think that given this jobs number, the downward revision of the previous month and the factory orders number in addition to economic data we're likely to get next week, the Atlanta Fed may reflect a negative estimate for Q3 GDP

If we get a negative number for Q3, I think we'll get an even larger negative number for Q4

If you look at the trend,

* It's been over a week since I did my last podcast there's been a lot of economic news - almost all bad

* The markets have been under pressure - we're back down near the mini-Black Monday lows, solidly in correction mode

* The pressure on international markets has been greater

* Yet the vast majority of economists expect the Fed to raise interest rates by December

* This would really mean last minute - as the Fed's messaging hints at an interest rate hike by the end of the year

* If you look at the Fed's reasons it listed were:

* Weakness in overseas economies

* Lack of inflation, as the Fed measures it

* Increased improvement in the labor markets

* Why would the Fed move if all these concerns still exist?

* The answer is, it would not move

* No one wants to connect the obvious dots

* When the Fed refused to rule out an interest rate hike in October or December it might have been the worst thing for the markets because it is admitting it is considering kicking the economy when it is down

* Initially I thought the Fed would indiciate a dovish hold, but they opted for a hawkish hold, which exacerbates the issues with the markets, as the hike is already priced in

* International markets assume America can handle higher interest rates; but the Fed is still talking up the economy to send the message that the U.S. can handle higher rates, even though it can't

* I discussed this at length in my recently released video of my address in Jackson Hole, Wyoming

* I really want discuss in today's video two people who are in the news: Donald Trump and Carl Icahn

* Trump was on 60 Minutes this week and Carl Icahn recently released a video called, 'Danger Ahead'

* Trump's performance really hit the ball out of the park with his delivery, not that I agree with everything he said

* The typical voter will buy his bill of goods

* The interview was a commercial for Donald Trump in which he promises everything to everybody

* The promises to cut taxes on everyone but the hated hedge fund managers

* He promises to repeal and replace Obamacare with something even better and still insure everybody

* He promises to save Social Security

* He promises to grow the economy

* To the average voter, who doesn't really understand economics, he sounds like he can pull it off

* He sounds optimistic about what the country can be like if he is elected president

* The economy will grow because jobs will come back from overseas

* How is he going to do that? I don't know, but it doesn't matter

* He says it in a way that people are going to believe it

* Who will argue against it?

* He is not singling out any one interest group that will suffer

* His performance was brilliant, even though much if what he promises is impossible

* His tax message resonates because currently the government uses high corporate taxes so that special interests groups can be given favors by Congress, and higher taxes are held over the heads of those who do not buy them off with votes

* With lower corporate taxes, the politicians lose that leverage

* Trump doesn't need these special interest votes because he's spending his own money

* All Trump needs to do is get the nomination, then the Republican Party will support his Presidential Campaign

* His campaign for the nomination has been largely fueled by publicity

* He is running a better campaign in light of public perception

* Trump is throwing light on the problems who the average guy really feel - even if he is pie and the sky

* Carl Icahn is in the news because he could be Treasury Secretary i...

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It's been over a week since I did my last podcast there's been a lot of economic news - almost all bad

The markets have been under pressure - we're back down near the mini-Black Monday lows, solidly in correction mode

The pressure on international markets has been greater

Yet the vast majority of economists expect the Fed to raise interest rates by December

This would really mean last minute - as the Fed's messaging hints at an interest rate hike by the end of the year

If you look at the Fed's reasons it listed were:

Weakness in overseas economies

Lack of inflation, as the Fed measures it

Increased improvement in the labor markets

Why would the Fed move if all these concerns still exist?

The answer is, it would not move

No one wants to connect the obvious dots

When the Fed refused to rule out an interest rate hike in October or December it might have been the worst thing for the markets because it is admitting it is considering kicking the economy when it is down

Initially I thought the Fed would indiciate a dovish hold, but they opted for a hawkish hold, which exacerbates the issues with the markets, as the hike is already priced in

International markets assume America can handle higher interest rates; but the Fed is still talking up the economy to send the message that the U.S. can handle higher rates, even though it can't

I discussed this at length in my recently released video of my address in Jackson Hole, Wyoming

I really want discuss in today's video two people who are in the news: Donald Trump and Carl Icahn

Trump was on 60 Minutes this week and Carl Icahn recently released a video called, 'Danger Ahead'

Trump's performance really hit the ball out of the park with his delivery, not that I agree with everything he said

The typical voter will buy his bill of goods

The interview was a commercial for Donald Trump in which he promises everything to everybody

The promises to cut taxes on everyone but the hated hedge fund managers

He promises to repeal and replace Obamacare with something even better and still insure everybody

He promises to save Social Security

He promises to grow the economy

To the average voter, who doesn't really understand economics, he sounds like he can pull it off

He sounds optimistic about what the country can be like if he is elected president

The economy will grow because jobs will come back from overseas

How is he going to do that? I don't know, but it doesn't matter

He says it in a way that people are going to believe it

Who will argue against it?

He is not singling out any one interest group that will suffer

His performance was brilliant, even though much if what he promises is impossible

His tax message resonates because currently the government uses high corporate taxes so that special interests groups can be given favors by Congress, and higher taxes are held over the heads of those who do not buy them off with votes

With lower corporate taxes, the politicians lose that leverage

Trump doesn't need these special interest votes because he's spending his own money

All Trump needs to do is get the nomination, then the Republican Party will support his Presidential Campaign

His campaign for the nomination has been largely fueled by publicity

He is running a better campaign in light of public perception

Trump is throwing light on the problems who the average guy really feel - even if he is pie and the sky

Carl Icahn is in the news because he could be Treasury Secretary if Trump is elected, and he would probably not be that bad

His new video, calledDanger Ahead" starts out as a commercial for Donald Trump, giving him even more publicity, but in the second half of the video he addresses the real root of the problem in the U.S. economy

He addresses our bubble economy and correctly blames the Fed

He points out that quantitative easing and zero percent interest rates ...