The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

The Fed released long-awaited FOMC official statement

Indicating they will be more patient without the word "patient" than when they were officially patient

Why take the word away in the first place?

The Fed wants to appear to be moving closer to a destination to which it has no intention of arriving

The Fed is clearly more concerned about the economy today; they reduced growth estimates

Janet Yellen said she will not raise rates until she sees improvement in the labor market

The Fed not satisfied with 5-1/2% unemployment

The jobs number is the outlier and will turn around

Housing starts collapsed in February; biggest in 8 years

Economic Surprise Index is most negative in memory

It doesn't matter what the unemployment rate is; the Fed can't raise rates without creating a financial crisis worse than 2008

The minute the Fed went down the path of QE, they sealed our fate

There is now so much debt that we need QE more than ever

The dollar had a huge rise in anticipation of rate hikes

The Fed is more likely to launch QE4 than to raise interest rates

The Fed is not going to raise interest rates until there is a currency crisis

When the dollar turns, commodity prices will surge in all currencies

The fact that the day of reckoning has been delayed with increased debt means a bigger payday for Euro Pacific Capital investment strategy

It will be better to restructure and default on some of our debt that to deflate it away

Understand the end game, ride it out and have the last laugh

* The Foreign exchange markets continue to ignore the darkening U.S. economic picture

* Dollar had best two-week gain since the financial crisis of 2008

* Market exuberance based solely on the jobs report which is an outlier among all other negative news

* Why aren't the jobs numbers being questioned?

* We have had three consecutive months of declining retail sales

* Falling prices are reflecting a lack of demand

* The stock market has begun to decline, bracing for Fed rate hikes

* Gold held steady against the dollar; up against other currencies

* Inventory to sales ratio lowest since 2008

* This week the Atlanta Fed reduced Q1 GDP down to .6%

* The second revision for Q4 could be below 2%

* Poor GDP numbers already being blamed on the weather

* Europe looked to US QE as a success because inflation was masked

* The European market is already issuing negative bonds in anticipation of ECB purchase (QE)

* The Germans are going to push back when they see inflation

* At lease Europe will be able to withstand higher rates because of smaller debt and trade deficit

* U.S. won't be able to tolerate the consequences of rate hikes which would ultEimately heal the economy

* Therefore inevitable QE4 will be even larger than QE 1,2 & 3 combined


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The Foreign exchange markets continue to ignore the darkening U.S. economic picture

Dollar had best two-week gain since the financial crisis of 2008

Market exuberance based solely on the jobs report which is an outlier among all other negative news

Why aren't the jobs numbers being questioned?

We have had three consecutive months of declining retail sales

Falling prices are reflecting a lack of demand

The stock market has begun to decline, bracing for Fed rate hikes

Gold held steady against the dollar; up against other currencies

Inventory to sales ratio lowest since 2008

This week the Atlanta Fed reduced Q1 GDP down to .6%

The second revision for Q4 could be below 2%

Poor GDP numbers already being blamed on the weather

Europe looked to US QE as a success because inflation was masked

The European market is already issuing negative bonds in anticipation of ECB purchase (QE)

The Germans are going to push back when they see inflation

At lease Europe will be able to withstand higher rates because of smaller debt and trade deficit

U.S. won't be able to tolerate the consequences of rate hikes which would ultEimately heal the economy

Therefore inevitable QE4 will be even larger than QE 1,2 & 3 combined

* The NASDAQ 5,000 party ended nearly the day it began

* NASDAQ down more than 80 points

* Dow Jones down 332 points

* Outside reversal week a reliable pattern signaling a downturn

* The market believes optimistic non-farm payrolls will trigger Fed rate hike

* Dollar hitting new highs

* Janet Yellen is the victim of too much success, allowing for rate hike assumptions

* All data other than jobs numbers are weak

* If we continue along this path, we are heading toward recession

* Stock market and real estate bear markets will trigger QE4

* Stock market will drop dramatically if rate hike notion is not dispelled

* Obama Administration floating trial balloon on student loan debt discharge for bankruptcy

* This moral hazard would force education prices even higher


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The NASDAQ 5,000 party ended nearly the day it began

NASDAQ down more than 80 points

Dow Jones down 332 points

Outside reversal week a reliable pattern signaling a downturn

The market believes optimistic non-farm payrolls will trigger Fed rate hike

Dollar hitting new highs

Janet Yellen is the victim of too much success, allowing for rate hike assumptions

All data other than jobs numbers are weak

If we continue along this path, we are heading toward recession

Stock market and real estate bear markets will trigger QE4

Stock market will drop dramatically if rate hike notion is not dispelled

Obama Administration floating trial balloon on student loan debt discharge for bankruptcy

This moral hazard would force education prices even higher

* February Non-Farm Payrolls Number - 295,000 jobs

* Unemployment down 5.5%

* Analysts were expecting a miss

* Dollar at a new high

* Productivity dropped 2.2%

* Factory orders fell for the 6th consecutive month

* Economic data points only seen during recessions

* The Dow closed down - NASDAQ down more

* Labor force participation rate is down

* Average hourly earnings flat

* Number of people not in the labor force at an all-time high

* Increase in jobs represents people working more than one jobs

* 45% of the 295,000 jobs are assumed to have been created by optimistic government statisticians

* Disconnect between the weak GDP and the jobs numbers

* Consumer credit declined, indicating the consumer is struggling

* It's a good time to take advantage of the strong dollar and invest abroad


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February Non-Farm Payrolls Number - 295,000 jobs

Unemployment down 5.5%

Analysts were expecting a miss

Dollar at a new high

Productivity dropped 2.2%

Factory orders fell for the 6th consecutive month

Economic data points only seen during recessions

The Dow closed down - NASDAQ down more

Labor force participation rate is down

Average hourly earnings flat

Number of people not in the labor force at an all-time high

Increase in jobs represents people working more than one jobs

45% of the 295,000 jobs are assumed to have been created by optimistic government statisticians

Disconnect between the weak GDP and the jobs numbers

Consumer credit declined, indicating the consumer is struggling

It's a good time to take advantage of the strong dollar and invest abroad

* Poland became the 21st country to lower interest rates this year

* New record low to 1.5%

* Polish economy is strongest in three years

* Growing faster than the U.S. economy

* Policy conundrum: what is inflation target?

* Low inflation stimulating Polish economy

* Yet Central Bankers look to illogical Keynesian textbooks

* Where is the evidence that deflation is undermining the economy?

* There is no magical point where a good thing becomes a bad thing

* If they overcompensate and weaken the economy, they will be raising interest rates on an already weak economy

* Poland could afford to raise rates, however, if this policy fails, because their debt is low

* U.S. debt is so high, we can't afford to raise rates in order to support the dollar

* When inflation picks up in the world and other central banks raise rates, the dollar will decline

* The Fed will be unable to curb inflation because we can't afford to service our debt

* Ultimately this will precipitate a currency crisis when it becomes apparent that the Fed has run out of options


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Poland became the 21st country to lower interest rates this year

New record low to 1.5%

Polish economy is strongest in three years

Growing faster than the U.S. economy

Policy conundrum: what is inflation target?

Low inflation stimulating Polish economy

Yet Central Bankers look to illogical Keynesian textbooks

Where is the evidence that deflation is undermining the economy?

There is no magical point where a good thing becomes a bad thing

If they overcompensate and weaken the economy, they will be raising interest rates on an already weak economy

Poland could afford to raise rates, however, if this policy fails, because their debt is low

U.S. debt is so high, we can't afford to raise rates in order to support the dollar

When inflation picks up in the world and other central banks raise rates, the dollar will decline

The Fed will be unable to curb inflation because we can't afford to service our debt

Ultimately this will precipitate a currency crisis when it becomes apparent that the Fed has run out of options

* First trading day of march - NASDAQ closed above 5000 for the first time in 15 years

* Each time the market goes up with crazy valuations, pundits say, "This time it's different."

* This time the Fed is under more pressure to create the illusion of prosperity

* Today's rally came against the backdrop of weak economic data

* The only way this bubble won't burst is if the Fed intervenes with more stimulus

* Bubbles force you to make an important decision:

* Look like a fool before they pop, or look like a fool after they pop

* It doesn't matter how much money you make, it's how much money you keep


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