The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Recorded May 22, 2019

Low Inflation is Transitory

Today we got the release of the most recent minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, and I guess it was a bit of a mixed bag for people who were looking for whether the Fed was going to be more hawkish or more dovish with respect to its next move on interest rates.  One thing that was revealed in the minutes that the governors still maintain, they are still saying that they feel that this "low inflation" that we've been experiencing is transitory.  What that means is that it's temporary and the low inflation is going to go back up toward their 2% target.  This is supposedly a hawkish statement, because if the Fed were worried that low inflation was going to persist, then they would do something about it to save us from the horrors of not having the cost of living rise at a fast enough clip.

When It Comes to Inflation Fighting the Fed Is All Bark and No Bite

But, as far as I'm concerned, none of this even matters, because a) they are right, inflation is transitory, and b) it's not even as low as they think because the CPI is not accurate. So inflation is already higher than what the official numbers reveal. But even if it is transitory, which it is, and even if the numbers go north of 2%, which they will, the Fed is going to do nothing.  People still don't get it, that when it comes to inflation fighting the Fed is all bark and no bite.

"For Some Time" Means Forever

But then if you look at what the Fed said in the same minutes with regard to their "patience" with respect to the next rate hike, remember, the Fed went from pretty much auto pilot - they were raising rates, they were tightening - to being "patient", and being "appropriate", and now, if you read what they said, they said that it is going to be appropriate to remain patient "for some time".  Now what does that mean - "for some time"? Basically, it means forever. What the Fed is basically saying by saying that it is appropriate to be patient for some time, meaning, "you don't have to worry about any rate hikes".

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Recorded May 22, 2019

Low Inflation is Transitory

Today we got the release of the most recent minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, and I guess it was a bit of a mixed bag for people who were looking for whether the Fed was going to be more hawkish or more dovish with respect to its next move on interest rates.  One thing that was revealed in the minutes that the governors still maintain, they are still saying that they feel that this "low inflation" that we've been experiencing is transitory.  What that means is that it's temporary and the low inflation is going to go back up toward their 2% target.  This is supposedly a hawkish statement, because if the Fed were worried that low inflation was going to persist, then they would do something about it to save us from the horrors of not having the cost of living rise at a fast enough clip.

When It Comes to Inflation Fighting the Fed Is All Bark and No Bite

But, as far as I'm concerned, none of this even matters, because a) they are right, inflation is transitory, and b) it's not even as low as they think because the CPI is not accurate. So inflation is already higher than what the official numbers reveal. But even if it is transitory, which it is, and even if the numbers go north of 2%, which they will, the Fed is going to do nothing.  People still don't get it, that when it comes to inflation fighting the Fed is all bark and no bite.

"For Some Time" Means Forever

But then if you look at what the Fed said in the same minutes with regard to their "patience" with respect to the next rate hike, remember, the Fed went from pretty much auto pilot - they were raising rates, they were tightening - to being "patient", and being "appropriate", and now, if you read what they said, they said that it is going to be appropriate to remain patient "for some time".  Now what does that mean - "for some time"? Basically, it means forever. What the Fed is basically saying by saying that it is appropriate to be patient for some time, meaning, "you don't have to worry about any rate hikes".

Don't miss the movie, "The Housing Bubble" premiering June 26, 2019

Back in Puerto Rico

I am finally back in Puerto Rico, after having spent 8 long days in Las Vegas for both the SALT conference and The Las Vegas Money Show.  I really do enjoy coming back to Puerto Rico, I miss it quite a bit while I'm away.  A lot of people who are thinking about making the move to Puerto Rico to take advantage of the tax benefits that exist here… One of the reasons that people are reluctant to come down here is that they don't want to uproot their family and move to a place where they really don't know anybody, they leave their friends, they leave their family members… I'll tell you, for me, personally, probably the best thing about being here, other than the tax breaks and the beautiful weather are the people that you meet when you come down here.  It is an incredible group of people that have moved here.  I think we're building a great community of quasi-ex-pats here in Puerto Rico.  So, if you're worried about not having enough friends and not having enough to do, that's the least of your worries. So I certainly would recommend that more people would consider making the move to Puerto Rico.

Visit Me at the Freedom Fest in Las Vegas July 17-20

But I am also looking forward to going back up to Connecticut, I'm going to be spending most of the summer there.  We'll be leaving the weekend of Memorial Day. By the way, if you didn't have an opportunity to come to any of the events in Vegas, I will be back in Vegas again in mid-July for the Freedom Fest.

Appearing at the Premiere of "The Housing Bubble"

I will also be in New York City on June 26 to attend the premier of the movie, "The Housing Bubble" on June 26.  You can buy tickets at the website letusdisagree.com. The movie is a documentary about the 2008 housing bubble, but it features a lot of people who were predicting or warning about the bubble before it popped, and warning about the financial crisis.  Of course, I am one of those people who was issuing those warnings, but I'm not the only one.  It's a very good documentary; I'll be there.  I think there's going to be a Q&A period with me and some of the other people who were featured in the movie at the event. So it would be great, if you're in the New York area this summer, June 26, go on letusdisagree.com and buy yourself some tickets.

Our Sponsors:
* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com
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Don't miss the movie, "The Housing Bubble" premiering June 26, 2019

Back in Puerto Rico

I am finally back in Puerto Rico, after having spent 8 long days in Las Vegas for both the SALT conference and The Las Vegas Money Show.  I really do enjoy coming back to Puerto Rico, I miss it quite a bit while I'm away.  A lot of people who are thinking about making the move to Puerto Rico to take advantage of the tax benefits that exist here… One of the reasons that people are reluctant to come down here is that they don't want to uproot their family and move to a place where they really don't know anybody, they leave their friends, they leave their family members… I'll tell you, for me, personally, probably the best thing about being here, other than the tax breaks and the beautiful weather are the people that you meet when you come down here.  It is an incredible group of people that have moved here.  I think we're building a great community of quasi-ex-pats here in Puerto Rico.  So, if you're worried about not having enough friends and not having enough to do, that's the least of your worries. So I certainly would recommend that more people would consider making the move to Puerto Rico.

Visit Me at the Freedom Fest in Las Vegas July 17-20

But I am also looking forward to going back up to Connecticut, I'm going to be spending most of the summer there.  We'll be leaving the weekend of Memorial Day. By the way, if you didn't have an opportunity to come to any of the events in Vegas, I will be back in Vegas again in mid-July for the Freedom Fest.

Appearing at the Premiere of "The Housing Bubble"

I will also be in New York City on June 26 to attend the premier of the movie, "The Housing Bubble" on June 26.  You can buy tickets at the website letusdisagree.com. The movie is a documentary about the 2008 housing bubble, but it features a lot of people who were predicting or warning about the bubble before it popped, and warning about the financial crisis.  Of course, I am one of those people who was issuing those warnings, but I'm not the only one.  It's a very good documentary; I'll be there.  I think there's going to be a Q&A period with me and some of the other people who were featured in the movie at the event. So it would be great, if you're in the New York area this summer, June 26, go on letusdisagree.com and buy yourself some tickets.

VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW

May 13 – 15, 2019

https://conferences.moneyshow.com/…/4532d84bf…/peter-schiff/

As Noted on My Last Podcast…

As I suspected on Friday's podcast, the 400-point reversal that saw the Dow move from down 300 points + to up 100 points on the close was in fact, reversed today, and the Dow Jones actually closed below the Friday low, which is a huge negative, technically for the index.  The Dow was down 617 points; that's about 2.4 %.  But the real carnage was in the NASDAQ.  That was down 3.4%.  The Russell 2000 also down better than 3% - 3.2%, showing that domestically focused stocks are actually getting hit harder than the multi-nationals.

Lyft and Uber Still Sinking

More trouble again for the recent IPO's, in particular, the ride-hailing companies Lyft  - down again, another 5.8% off the lows of the day - the lowest $47.17, closed at $48.15.  The Uber disaster continues.  Uber was down almost 11% today.  At one point, it was down 12% - the low was $36.08.  We closed at 37.10. Remember we came public Friday. This is only the second trading day.  Uber came public at $45, and now it is at $37.10, and as I said again on last week's podcast, these types of stocks are going to get particularly hit hard if the market carnage continues, which I think it will.

China: No Deal

I think the bear market rally is over - I've been saying that, "Long live the bear market". The Bear market rally is dead.  We are going a lot lower.  The catalyst today was also something that I was pointing out on my podcast last week, and that was the fact that we are not going to get a deal with China. I've been saying for a long time, that even if we got a deal, it would be, "buy the rumor, sell the fact". But I also said that it was becoming obvious that Trump had so over-promised the "great deal" that it was almost impossible to have a deal without disappointing the markets. So, I think Trump made a calculated decision that no deal is better than a deal that disappoints, especially since he had already goosed the market up to new highs.  So even if we sold off, Trump could say, "Well, this is some short-term pain; it's necessary for the long-term gain." and it may, in fact be the catalyst that causes the Fed to cut interest rates and launch QE, which is what Trump wants.

 

Our Sponsors:
* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com
* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.plaud.ai


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VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW

May 13 – 15, 2019

https://conferences.moneyshow.com/…/4532d84bf…/peter-schiff/

As Noted on My Last Podcast…

As I suspected on Friday's podcast, the 400-point reversal that saw the Dow move from down 300 points + to up 100 points on the close was in fact, reversed today, and the Dow Jones actually closed below the Friday low, which is a huge negative, technically for the index.  The Dow was down 617 points; that's about 2.4 %.  But the real carnage was in the NASDAQ.  That was down 3.4%.  The Russell 2000 also down better than 3% - 3.2%, showing that domestically focused stocks are actually getting hit harder than the multi-nationals.

Lyft and Uber Still Sinking

More trouble again for the recent IPO's, in particular, the ride-hailing companies Lyft  - down again, another 5.8% off the lows of the day - the lowest $47.17, closed at $48.15.  The Uber disaster continues.  Uber was down almost 11% today.  At one point, it was down 12% - the low was $36.08.  We closed at 37.10. Remember we came public Friday. This is only the second trading day.  Uber came public at $45, and now it is at $37.10, and as I said again on last week's podcast, these types of stocks are going to get particularly hit hard if the market carnage continues, which I think it will.

China: No Deal

I think the bear market rally is over - I've been saying that, "Long live the bear market". The Bear market rally is dead.  We are going a lot lower.  The catalyst today was also something that I was pointing out on my podcast last week, and that was the fact that we are not going to get a deal with China. I've been saying for a long time, that even if we got a deal, it would be, "buy the rumor, sell the fact". But I also said that it was becoming obvious that Trump had so over-promised the "great deal" that it was almost impossible to have a deal without disappointing the markets. So, I think Trump made a calculated decision that no deal is better than a deal that disappoints, especially since he had already goosed the market up to new highs.  So even if we sold off, Trump could say, "Well, this is some short-term pain; it's necessary for the long-term gain." and it may, in fact be the catalyst that causes the Fed to cut interest rates and launch QE, which is what Trump wants.

 

VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW

May 13 – 15, 2019

https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-las-vegas/speakers/4532d84bf93311d3a5dd00104b96e7b5/peter-schiff/

Recorded May 10, 2018

Why Escalate Trade War If Negotiations Are Going so Great?

The U.S. stock markets finished off the worst week of the year with a gain despite the fact that, as expected, the trade talks between the United States and China broke down today, and no deal.  The new tariffs went into effect at 12:01am this morning.  Despite the fact that Trump is now retaliating by escalating the trade war, he still claims that the discussions are going well, that they are making a lot of progress.  None of that makes any sense. If things are going well, and you're making progress, you don't escalate the war. That makes no sense. All that is going to do is piss off the Chinese. So, if everything is going so well, you would not want to do that.

Maybe Trump Would Rather Have the Tariffs

This shows that things are breaking down, that there is some desperation and Trump feels he has to turn up the pressure in order to try to force the Chinese into a deal.  Although, I am not even sure Trump believes a deal is actually better than the tariffs.  First of all, I don't believe that Trump is going to be able to deliver the type of substantive, game-changing great deal that he has been promising. So, from that perspective, if Trump actually believes that tariffs are good for the U.S. economy because it means we're going to get some kind of windfall, that the Chinese are going to be sending us all this money, well then maybe he prefers the tariffs to a deal that does not live up to the hype.

Tariffs Are Simply Another Tax on the American People

But, of course, Trump is wrong if that's what he believes. The tariffs simply represent taxes on the American consumer.  They are just one type of tax.  You can have a sales tax, you can have an income tax, you can have a tariff.  All the taxes are paid by American people.  It doesn't matter what you call them or how you want to levy them, that's where the money is coming from. So, if you think lower taxes are good, then you can't think tariffs are good. Unless you're going to offset the tariffs by cutting taxes someplace else and say, "We're going to fund government through tariffs as opposed to funding government through another source. But the tariffs in and of themselves do not deliver a benefit to Americans.  They simply make products that are subject to the tariffs more expensive to buy.  So Americans have a choice: pay the higher price or don't buy the product.

Our Sponsors:
* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com
* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.plaud.ai


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VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW

May 13 – 15, 2019

https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-las-vegas/speakers/4532d84bf93311d3a5dd00104b96e7b5/peter-schiff/

Recorded May 10, 2018

Why Escalate Trade War If Negotiations Are Going so Great?

The U.S. stock markets finished off the worst week of the year with a gain despite the fact that, as expected, the trade talks between the United States and China broke down today, and no deal.  The new tariffs went into effect at 12:01am this morning.  Despite the fact that Trump is now retaliating by escalating the trade war, he still claims that the discussions are going well, that they are making a lot of progress.  None of that makes any sense. If things are going well, and you're making progress, you don't escalate the war. That makes no sense. All that is going to do is piss off the Chinese. So, if everything is going so well, you would not want to do that.

Maybe Trump Would Rather Have the Tariffs

This shows that things are breaking down, that there is some desperation and Trump feels he has to turn up the pressure in order to try to force the Chinese into a deal.  Although, I am not even sure Trump believes a deal is actually better than the tariffs.  First of all, I don't believe that Trump is going to be able to deliver the type of substantive, game-changing great deal that he has been promising. So, from that perspective, if Trump actually believes that tariffs are good for the U.S. economy because it means we're going to get some kind of windfall, that the Chinese are going to be sending us all this money, well then maybe he prefers the tariffs to a deal that does not live up to the hype.

Tariffs Are Simply Another Tax on the American People

But, of course, Trump is wrong if that's what he believes. The tariffs simply represent taxes on the American consumer.  They are just one type of tax.  You can have a sales tax, you can have an income tax, you can have a tariff.  All the taxes are paid by American people.  It doesn't matter what you call them or how you want to levy them, that's where the money is coming from. So, if you think lower taxes are good, then you can't think tariffs are good. Unless you're going to offset the tariffs by cutting taxes someplace else and say, "We're going to fund government through tariffs as opposed to funding government through another source. But the tariffs in and of themselves do not deliver a benefit to Americans.  They simply make products that are subject to the tariffs more expensive to buy.  So Americans have a choice: pay the higher price or don't buy the product.

See Peter at the SALT Conference at the Bellagio, Las Vegas May 7-10, 2019

https://www.salt.org/bio-schiff-peter

Market Volatility

I just arrived in Las Vegas, where I will be spending the next 8 days - I actually have 2 conferences heres; I have the SALT Conference (SkyBridge Alternative Asset Conference) that really kicks off tomorrow, though there is a welcome reception tonight, and then I do the Las Vegas Money Show, which kicks off on Monday.  So I'm here for quite some time.  I haven't even unpacked my bags, though.  I wanted to record a short podcast to comment mainly on the market volatility.

Buyers Bought Dip on Monday

The stock market was way down on Monday morning.  Of course,  the selloff started in the futures market on Sunday night, where the Dow futures was down over 500 points at one time. But by the time we opened, the Dow was only off about 450 and the dip buyers came in, and they bought the market all day, and we closed near the highs.  It couldn't close positive - I think the Dow was only off about 70 points.  So the buyers came in as they are trained to do.  They bought the dip.

Trump's Tariff Tweets

What caused the initial selloff was a pair of tweets; the two tweets were related. A lot of times, when Donald Trump sends out a tweet, he has a lot of stuff in there. or he will send out 2 tweets to make the same message. And, what happened is he basically said that he was going to impose more tariffs on China. He tweeted that, by this Friday, he is going to "up" the 10% tariffs to 25%.  So Americans who are now being taxed 10% for buying some Chinese goods, if they buy those Chinese goods starting on Friday, they will have to pay a 25% tariff on those goods.

New Additional 25% Tariffs

He also tweeted that he was going to apply the 25% tariff to goods that right now aren't paying any tariffs. So there are still a lot of Chinese goods that Americans could buy without being subject to tariffs, but now Trump is saying that now that is going to go away. At the end of this week, he's going to hit those goods.  So Americans buying pretty much any Chinese products are going to have to pay a 25% tariff.

Additional Tax on American Consumers

Now, of course, Donald Trump thinks these tariffs are great, because he believes the Chinese pay them, which, of course, is not true.  The tariffs are added on here in the United States, so it is the American consumers who pay those tariffs. Now, it can hurt China because if the higher prices cause fewer Americans to buy Chinese goods because they don't want to pay the higher price, then China doesn't sell its goods in America.

 

Our Sponsors:
* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com
* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.plaud.ai


Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

See Peter at the SALT Conference at the Bellagio, Las Vegas May 7-10, 2019

https://www.salt.org/bio-schiff-peter

Market Volatility

I just arrived in Las Vegas, where I will be spending the next 8 days - I actually have 2 conferences heres; I have the SALT Conference (SkyBridge Alternative Asset Conference) that really kicks off tomorrow, though there is a welcome reception tonight, and then I do the Las Vegas Money Show, which kicks off on Monday.  So I'm here for quite some time.  I haven't even unpacked my bags, though.  I wanted to record a short podcast to comment mainly on the market volatility.

Buyers Bought Dip on Monday

The stock market was way down on Monday morning.  Of course,  the selloff started in the futures market on Sunday night, where the Dow futures was down over 500 points at one time. But by the time we opened, the Dow was only off about 450 and the dip buyers came in, and they bought the market all day, and we closed near the highs.  It couldn't close positive - I think the Dow was only off about 70 points.  So the buyers came in as they are trained to do.  They bought the dip.

Trump's Tariff Tweets

What caused the initial selloff was a pair of tweets; the two tweets were related. A lot of times, when Donald Trump sends out a tweet, he has a lot of stuff in there. or he will send out 2 tweets to make the same message. And, what happened is he basically said that he was going to impose more tariffs on China. He tweeted that, by this Friday, he is going to "up" the 10% tariffs to 25%.  So Americans who are now being taxed 10% for buying some Chinese goods, if they buy those Chinese goods starting on Friday, they will have to pay a 25% tariff on those goods.

New Additional 25% Tariffs

He also tweeted that he was going to apply the 25% tariff to goods that right now aren't paying any tariffs. So there are still a lot of Chinese goods that Americans could buy without being subject to tariffs, but now Trump is saying that now that is going to go away. At the end of this week, he's going to hit those goods.  So Americans buying pretty much any Chinese products are going to have to pay a 25% tariff.

Additional Tax on American Consumers

Now, of course, Donald Trump thinks these tariffs are great, because he believes the Chinese pay them, which, of course, is not true.  The tariffs are added on here in the United States, so it is the American consumers who pay those tariffs. Now, it can hurt China because if the higher prices cause fewer Americans to buy Chinese goods because they don't want to pay the higher price, then China doesn't sell its goods in America.