The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW

May 13 – 15, 2019

https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-las-vegas/speakers/4532d84bf93311d3a5dd00104b96e7b5/peter-schiff/

Recorded March 26, 2019

Feigned Attempt to Shrink the Balance Sheet

I am finally back on land, having spent 9 days at sea, at the Investors Summit at Sea.  I've been doing this annually now, this is my 7th time doing that. I am now back, technically one calendar year older.  I want to catch up a little bit on what happened in the market later last week.  I did do that one podcast from the ship following the complete capitulation on the part of the Federal Reserve, basically calling off all of the rate hikes that anybody thought may have been coming for the remainder of the year.  Also calling off their feigned attempt to shrink the balance sheet - quantitative tightening.  The balance sheet will barely shrink between now and the end of the summer, when it will stop shrinking altogether; if they can even keep up the pretense for that long.

Nobody Appreciates What the Fed Has Done

If you remember, when I was forecasting that this was going to happen, at the very beginning, in fact even before the Fed began to shrink its balance sheet, before the Fed raised rates for the first time, I said that if they ever tried to normalize interest rates, if they ever tried to shrink the balance sheet, they would ultimately abort the process - that they would fail in their mission. They could not complete the journey. It would create a huge problem for the Fed, which up until this point, it hasn't happened yet. Nobody really appreciates what the Fed has done.

There Will Be an Excuse

A lot of the people in the investment community are still buying at face value what the Fed is saying. But remember, when I said the Fed was going to announce that it was going to stop the rate hikes or call off quantitative tightening, I said at the time, that they were going to come up with an excuse. That the Fed was not going to tell the markets the truth about why it had aborted this mission - it was just going to make up an excuse. The Fed had to pretend that they could actually do this - that they were going to normalize interest rates, that they were going to shrink their balance sheet but something prevented them from doing it.

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VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW

May 13 – 15, 2019

https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-las-vegas/speakers/4532d84bf93311d3a5dd00104b96e7b5/peter-schiff/

Recorded March 26, 2019

Feigned Attempt to Shrink the Balance Sheet

I am finally back on land, having spent 9 days at sea, at the Investors Summit at Sea.  I've been doing this annually now, this is my 7th time doing that. I am now back, technically one calendar year older.  I want to catch up a little bit on what happened in the market later last week.  I did do that one podcast from the ship following the complete capitulation on the part of the Federal Reserve, basically calling off all of the rate hikes that anybody thought may have been coming for the remainder of the year.  Also calling off their feigned attempt to shrink the balance sheet - quantitative tightening.  The balance sheet will barely shrink between now and the end of the summer, when it will stop shrinking altogether; if they can even keep up the pretense for that long.

Nobody Appreciates What the Fed Has Done

If you remember, when I was forecasting that this was going to happen, at the very beginning, in fact even before the Fed began to shrink its balance sheet, before the Fed raised rates for the first time, I said that if they ever tried to normalize interest rates, if they ever tried to shrink the balance sheet, they would ultimately abort the process - that they would fail in their mission. They could not complete the journey. It would create a huge problem for the Fed, which up until this point, it hasn't happened yet. Nobody really appreciates what the Fed has done.

There Will Be an Excuse

A lot of the people in the investment community are still buying at face value what the Fed is saying. But remember, when I said the Fed was going to announce that it was going to stop the rate hikes or call off quantitative tightening, I said at the time, that they were going to come up with an excuse. That the Fed was not going to tell the markets the truth about why it had aborted this mission - it was just going to make up an excuse. The Fed had to pretend that they could actually do this - that they were going to normalize interest rates, that they were going to shrink their balance sheet but something prevented them from doing it.

VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW

May 13 - 15, 2019

https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-las-vegas/speakers/4532d84bf93311d3a5dd00104b96e7b5/peter-schiff/

Recording Today's Podcast from Willemstad, Curaçao

I am recording today's podcast from my cabin on a cruise ship, which is right now docked on the Dutch island of Curaçao, which is about 35 miles north of Venezuela.  I've never actually been to this island, even though I live in the Caribbean now, in Puerto Rico, there are still many places in the Caribbean that I have not visited. I really wish I'd come here sooner. I had no idea how beautiful this island was.  Not really the beaches, so much, although I'm sure they are equally spectacular. I didn't go to the beach.  I just spent the day walking around town. But it's probably the most charming Caribbean island I've been to, as far as the architecture and the way the town is laid out - how beautiful the streets are, and the buildings and how clean they are.  It really seems like a nice place to live. I think there is a permanent population of about 160,000 people.

The Fed's Decision

I want to spend my limited time on today's podcast talking about the Federal Reserve's decision today and the press conference.  I did get back on the boat in time to watch the press conference live, and I do want to limit today's podcast to that discussion.

Before the Fed announced its decision on interest rates - nobody expected a rate hike, and we did not get a rate hike, but before the Fed announced today's decision, the markets were on the defensive.  Earlier in the day, Donald Trump had mentioned that he now thinks that the tariffs on Chinese imports, or on Americans who want to buy Chinese imports, may remain in effect for a much longer period of time; indicating that maybe this great trade deal is not as close as the President was letting on in the past.

Unexpected Dovishness

So the markets sold off. I think the Dow, maybe at the lows was down about 170-some odd points, not exactly sure, but then, when the Fed announced its decision not to hike, the market erased all of those losses, and I think at one point we were up close to triple digits. Nobody was expecting a hike; I think they were expecting the Fed to be dovish, but I don't think they were expecting the Fed to be this dovish.

 

 

Our Sponsors:
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VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW

May 13 - 15, 2019

https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-las-vegas/speakers/4532d84bf93311d3a5dd00104b96e7b5/peter-schiff/

Recording Today's Podcast from Willemstad, Curaçao

I am recording today's podcast from my cabin on a cruise ship, which is right now docked on the Dutch island of Curaçao, which is about 35 miles north of Venezuela.  I've never actually been to this island, even though I live in the Caribbean now, in Puerto Rico, there are still many places in the Caribbean that I have not visited. I really wish I'd come here sooner. I had no idea how beautiful this island was.  Not really the beaches, so much, although I'm sure they are equally spectacular. I didn't go to the beach.  I just spent the day walking around town. But it's probably the most charming Caribbean island I've been to, as far as the architecture and the way the town is laid out - how beautiful the streets are, and the buildings and how clean they are.  It really seems like a nice place to live. I think there is a permanent population of about 160,000 people.

The Fed's Decision

I want to spend my limited time on today's podcast talking about the Federal Reserve's decision today and the press conference.  I did get back on the boat in time to watch the press conference live, and I do want to limit today's podcast to that discussion.

Before the Fed announced its decision on interest rates - nobody expected a rate hike, and we did not get a rate hike, but before the Fed announced today's decision, the markets were on the defensive.  Earlier in the day, Donald Trump had mentioned that he now thinks that the tariffs on Chinese imports, or on Americans who want to buy Chinese imports, may remain in effect for a much longer period of time; indicating that maybe this great trade deal is not as close as the President was letting on in the past.

Unexpected Dovishness

So the markets sold off. I think the Dow, maybe at the lows was down about 170-some odd points, not exactly sure, but then, when the Fed announced its decision not to hike, the market erased all of those losses, and I think at one point we were up close to triple digits. Nobody was expecting a hike; I think they were expecting the Fed to be dovish, but I don't think they were expecting the Fed to be this dovish.

 

 

Recorded March 13, 2019

VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW

May 13 - 15, 2019

https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-las-vegas/speakers/4532d84bf93311d3a5dd00104b96e7b5/peter-schiff/

Big Drop in Boeing: Opportunity to buy into Dip

The Dow is continuing to rebound this week, up 148 points today - 25,702 was the close.  In fact, the Dow would be higher if it weren't for an about 11% decline in Boeing so far this week. I am going to talk on this podcast about the controversy surrounding Boeing and their 737 Max 8 aircraft.  But for now I want to talk just about the markets.  I actually think that it was the big gap down on Monday morning, where Boeing first reacted to the news of the plane crash in Ethiopia and the Dow was down better than 200 points - all of it the big drop in Boeing. I think traders looked at that news as an opportunity to buy into the dip.  I think you saw people rushing in at that point. That kind of marked a short term bottom in the market and now we're back up around the highs of this bear market correction.

Smarter Money Selling into this Rally

I do believe that we're going to be running into resistance again at this area - but that was probably an opportunity for some people, they saw that dip and they rushed in and they bought other stocks.  Typically there's some kind of news event that would coincide with some type of inflection point in the market.  I don't think it's a significant low; I just think it is a low in an ongoing process, this bear market rally, this correction in the bear market is not ending quickly, but I do believe it is ending. I think the smarter money is selling into this rally.

Retail Sales: December was not a Fluke

The economic news - a couple of items that came out this week were a little better than estimated.  But look at the Retail Sales number that came out on Monday. That one, to me, still confirms that the numbers that we got in December were not a fluke.  A lot of people initially dismissed the weak number in December.  The initial report for December Retail Sales was -1.2. They were looking for a rebound in January and the got one. They were only looking for a rebound of .1 and they got a rebound of .2. They actually revised the prior month that was originally reported as down 1.2, that moved to down 1.6. So an even bigger decline December than was originally reported.  Remember, this is a 10-year low.

Our Sponsors:
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Recorded March 13, 2019

VISIT PETER AT THE LAS VEGAS MONEY SHOW

May 13 - 15, 2019

https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-las-vegas/speakers/4532d84bf93311d3a5dd00104b96e7b5/peter-schiff/

Big Drop in Boeing: Opportunity to buy into Dip

The Dow is continuing to rebound this week, up 148 points today - 25,702 was the close.  In fact, the Dow would be higher if it weren't for an about 11% decline in Boeing so far this week. I am going to talk on this podcast about the controversy surrounding Boeing and their 737 Max 8 aircraft.  But for now I want to talk just about the markets.  I actually think that it was the big gap down on Monday morning, where Boeing first reacted to the news of the plane crash in Ethiopia and the Dow was down better than 200 points - all of it the big drop in Boeing. I think traders looked at that news as an opportunity to buy into the dip.  I think you saw people rushing in at that point. That kind of marked a short term bottom in the market and now we're back up around the highs of this bear market correction.

Smarter Money Selling into this Rally

I do believe that we're going to be running into resistance again at this area - but that was probably an opportunity for some people, they saw that dip and they rushed in and they bought other stocks.  Typically there's some kind of news event that would coincide with some type of inflection point in the market.  I don't think it's a significant low; I just think it is a low in an ongoing process, this bear market rally, this correction in the bear market is not ending quickly, but I do believe it is ending. I think the smarter money is selling into this rally.

Retail Sales: December was not a Fluke

The economic news - a couple of items that came out this week were a little better than estimated.  But look at the Retail Sales number that came out on Monday. That one, to me, still confirms that the numbers that we got in December were not a fluke.  A lot of people initially dismissed the weak number in December.  The initial report for December Retail Sales was -1.2. They were looking for a rebound in January and the got one. They were only looking for a rebound of .1 and they got a rebound of .2. They actually revised the prior month that was originally reported as down 1.2, that moved to down 1.6. So an even bigger decline December than was originally reported.  Remember, this is a 10-year low.

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Market Down Before the Bell

A late-day rally wasn't enough to bring the U.S. stock market indexes into the black on the day.  In fact, this is the first down week that the U.S. stock market has had in 2019. Something tells me it's certainly not going to be the last. The market was down from the bell this morning. Even before the bell, if you look at the futures, even before we got the jobs number - the February jobs report (which I will get into a little later in this podcast) the markets were already down.  The Dow Futures, I think were off about 125, 135, something like that. Normally, the markets are not making a big move in either direction before the jobs report comes out, because people don't know what the number is going to be, and generally it's a market-moving number, so the markets are typically pretty flat before we get the number.

Trade Deal Up in the Air

This time, the markets were down.  Based on rumors that the trade deal with China may be delayed.  People were talking about this Mar-a-Lago Summit that was going to take place later in the month, and now I was reading about how there may not be a deal in time, and the Chinese may not want to go to Mar-a-Lago, and so the whole thing is up in the air. So people were getting a little nervous about the trade deal. So that's why the markets were already selling off, plus, I think the Chinese markets had been weaker overnight. Trump or someone else Tweeted out that Trump had said, as soon as we signed the trade deal, the markets are really going to spike. Apparently, nobody has explained to Donald Trump how the stock market works. Buy the rumor sell the fact. Maybe the President has more experience in the real estate market, not understanding how the stock market generally anticipates news, and sells off on the realization of that news.


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RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.

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Market Down Before the Bell

A late-day rally wasn't enough to bring the U.S. stock market indexes into the black on the day.  In fact, this is the first down week that the U.S. stock market has had in 2019. Something tells me it's certainly not going to be the last. The market was down from the bell this morning. Even before the bell, if you look at the futures, even before we got the jobs number - the February jobs report (which I will get into a little later in this podcast) the markets were already down.  The Dow Futures, I think were off about 125, 135, something like that. Normally, the markets are not making a big move in either direction before the jobs report comes out, because people don't know what the number is going to be, and generally it's a market-moving number, so the markets are typically pretty flat before we get the number.

Trade Deal Up in the Air

This time, the markets were down.  Based on rumors that the trade deal with China may be delayed.  People were talking about this Mar-a-Lago Summit that was going to take place later in the month, and now I was reading about how there may not be a deal in time, and the Chinese may not want to go to Mar-a-Lago, and so the whole thing is up in the air. So people were getting a little nervous about the trade deal. So that's why the markets were already selling off, plus, I think the Chinese markets had been weaker overnight. Trump or someone else Tweeted out that Trump had said, as soon as we signed the trade deal, the markets are really going to spike. Apparently, nobody has explained to Donald Trump how the stock market works. Buy the rumor sell the fact. Maybe the President has more experience in the real estate market, not understanding how the stock market generally anticipates news, and sells off on the realization of that news.

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Wall of Overhead Resistance

It looks like the correction in the U.S. stock market, and by correction I am referring to the rally, the first correction in what I believe is a new bear market - but it's looking like that correction may have finally run its course as the stock market has run into a wall of overhead resistance. In fact, the technical action on Monday was quite telling, because early in the morning we opened quite a bit higher - 100 points or so higher, and then had a 350-point reversal to the downside.  The catalyst for the initial rally was yet another rumor of an impending trade deal with China.  And it seems to me that we've basically run out of the ability to continue to rally the market by regurgitating the same news story over and over again.

Now They've Sold the Last Rumor

Remember I was saying that, when we actually have a trade deal, with China, my thinking would be it would be a "buy the rumor, sell the fact"?  Well the problem is, traders have already bought that rumor over and over again and that they may have already sold the last rumor. They can't wait for the fact.  They've just had so many rumors, that now they've sold the last rumor, and it doesn't even matter if we get a deal - the market is going to sell off.  Of course, if we get no deal at all, then the market could sell off even more, because a great deal has already been priced in to the market.  But there isn't going to be a great deal. There will be a deal, there will be nothing great about it; there will probably be nothing substantive about it. Expectations have been raised so high, which is another reason that I don't think Trump is as good a negotiator as he pretends.

Our Sponsors:
* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com
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RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/

Wall of Overhead Resistance

It looks like the correction in the U.S. stock market, and by correction I am referring to the rally, the first correction in what I believe is a new bear market - but it's looking like that correction may have finally run its course as the stock market has run into a wall of overhead resistance. In fact, the technical action on Monday was quite telling, because early in the morning we opened quite a bit higher - 100 points or so higher, and then had a 350-point reversal to the downside.  The catalyst for the initial rally was yet another rumor of an impending trade deal with China.  And it seems to me that we've basically run out of the ability to continue to rally the market by regurgitating the same news story over and over again.

Now They've Sold the Last Rumor

Remember I was saying that, when we actually have a trade deal, with China, my thinking would be it would be a "buy the rumor, sell the fact"?  Well the problem is, traders have already bought that rumor over and over again and that they may have already sold the last rumor. They can't wait for the fact.  They've just had so many rumors, that now they've sold the last rumor, and it doesn't even matter if we get a deal - the market is going to sell off.  Of course, if we get no deal at all, then the market could sell off even more, because a great deal has already been priced in to the market.  But there isn't going to be a great deal. There will be a deal, there will be nothing great about it; there will probably be nothing substantive about it. Expectations have been raised so high, which is another reason that I don't think Trump is as good a negotiator as he pretends.