The Rate Debate

One of the key factors that will make or break the case for the RBA tightening in 2022 will be the reopening trade. Will consumers start spending heavily as is forecast, or will the threat of inflation and a rise in interest rates scare them off? Darren and Chris discuss their views in the last episode of The Rate Debate for 2021.

With the RBA seemingly MIA last week, the market was left to its own devices. Not surprisingly, bond yields spiked as multiple rate hikes were priced as early as mid-2022. Will mortgage rates rise that soon? And can the market trust the RBA going forward? 

Darren Langer and Chris Rands discuss their views in episode 22 of The Rate Debate. 

While the RBA maintained its view of holding rates until at least 2024, Australia’s central bank has now acknowledged the need to curtail the housing boom and signalled the potential introduction of macroprudential measures. 

With APRA set to tighten lending standards, will we see heat come out of the red-hot domestic housing market?

Darren and Chris discuss their thoughts on this topic and more in episode 21 of The Rate Debate. 

The RBA expects a material slowdown in economic growth in September, but is forecasting a bounce-back in December that will stretch into the first half of 2022. Given market uncertainties, is the RBA’s confidence justified, and could it mean higher interest rates are coming?

The RBA continues to be optimistic despite the current state lockdowns, forecasting the economy to bounce back quickly once the virus is contained. Is the RBA taking a gamble on their positive outlook given the uncertainties in the market right now? Tune in to hear Darren Langer and Chris Rands debate their views in episode 19 of The Rate Debate.

The RBA is sticking with their timing of 2024 before they look at an increase in interest rates. The market believes that inflation will be back sooner than the RBA is forecasting. What’s driving the differing opinions and who’s right? Tune in to hear Darren Langer and Chris Rands discuss their views in episode 18 of The Rate Debate.

 The market has seen a small increase in fixed-rate mortgages from some of the banks. Is this the beginning of a tightening cycle and has the Australian consumer seen the last of ultra-low interest rates? In episode 17 of The Rate Debate, Darren Langer and Chris Rands discuss if a potential increase in inflation combined with a rise in interest rates could derail the housing market and the impact on bond yields. 

The government's policies have been focused on spending and have encouraged Australians to borrow more, driving strong credit growth. However, the more indebted Australians are, the harder it is for the RBA to increase interest rates. In episode 16 of The Rate Debate, Darren Langer and Chris Rands discuss whether Australia could fall into a potential debt trap of low growth, low-interest rates, and no inflation if the RBA gets it wrong.

The RBA’s stimulus policies have boosted the economy post COVID-19 driving increases in house prices, retail sales, and employment but is this a double-edged sword? Darren Langer and Chris Rands discuss the impact of the RBA’s policies on future growth, and question who will pay for it in the long run.

Bonds experienced their fastest sell off since 2009, resulting in the largest one month rise in 10-year yields. Given the economic outlook is looking more positive globally, is the rise justified and where to next for bond yields? Darren Langer and Chris Rands delve into these questions and more in episode fourteen of The Rate Debate.