The Rate Debate

The RBA hiked rates for the seventh consecutive month as it seeks to stifle inflation. Global central banks continue aggressive monetary tightening despite early signs of moderating inflation and weaker forward growth indicators.

With the consumer bearing the brunt of high inflation and tighter financial conditions, the RBA has backed away from aggressive rate hikes for now. Will other central banks follow, or is this a temporary reprieve?

Chris and Darren debate this and more in episode 33 of The Rate Debate.

The RBA hiked rates for the sixth consecutive month. With lead indicators showing signs of inflation coming off the boil and European banks starting to see stress, cracks are forming in the credit and equity markets. Have central banks tightened too aggressively risking a recession?

Chris and Darren debate this and more in episode 32 of The Rate Debate.

Australia’s central bank has now raised interest rates five months in a row. It’s the most aggressive tightening cycle since 1994. With more hikes expected, and house prices in Sydney and Melbourne on the slide, cracks are starting to appear. 

Chris Rands and Darren Langer discuss how further rate hikes will impact the housing market, unemployment rate, and the wider economy in episode 31 of The Rate Debate.

After hiking for the fourth consecutive month, the RBA’s tone has shifted to suggest a pause at the September meeting is possible, reflecting in part the troubling signals emanating from markets as the US teeters on the brink of recession and conditions continue to cool across the globe. 

As lead indicators continue to flash red – consumer confidence remains at alarming levels and housing is rolling over – can Australia’s central bank successfully thread the needle and avoid an outright stalling of the Australian economy? 

Central banks state they are not seeing signs of a recession as they continue hiking rates to curb spiralling inflation. But, with forward indicators flashing red across the board, low consumer confidence, declining forward sales, the US yield curve beginning to invert and the continued drop in the global equities, markets are telling us they see slowing growth ahead. 

Will the RBA pause in August or will they continue to tighten at the fastest rate we have seen in 30 years and drive the country into a recession?

With rates on the rise, higher inflation and wages below expectation, has Australia's central bank panicked by hiking rates by 50bps, the largest monthly move in over 20 years? The RBA's charter is to ensure the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people, which increasingly appears to be being overlooked in favour of an inflation target that isn't easily achievable without causing recession. 

Darren and Chris discuss this and more in episode 28 of The Rate Debate.

The RBA hikes rates by 25bps, with more set to come in 2022 as Australia’s central bank attempts to keep a grip on inflation. With oil and commodity prices set to continue to be at elevated levels due to Russia’s war with Ukraine, could a series of rapid rate hikes push the Australian economy into recession?

 Darren and Chris discuss this and more in episode 27 of The Rate Debate.

The RBA expects to see economic data that will drive them to hike interest rates earlier than expected. Markets have already jumped the gun and priced future hikes into bond prices. 

Is the economy as strong as central banks believe, and will interest rates go up as aggressively as the market suggests? 

Darren and Chris discuss their take in episode 26 of The Rate Debate.

The RBA continued to keep rates on hold this month even though Inflation picked up more quickly than they expected. The length of time it took to resolve supply chain problems, which have been pushing up prices continues to be a source of uncertainty regarding the inflation outlook, as are developments in global energy markets. With Russia’s war with Ukraine continuing to play out, and the market slowly recovering from a pandemic, what’s the outlook for interest rates? 

Tune in to hear Darren and Chris discuss this in episode 25 of The Rate Debate.

The RBA announced an end of QE and kept interest rates on hold as they wait to see stronger wage growth. If inflation continues to rise faster than forecast, and the RBA hikes earlier than expected, what could the knock-on effect be on markets? 

Tune in to hear Darren and Chris discuss this and more in episode 24 of The Rate Debate.