The Rate Debate

This month, Co-Head of Fixed Income Darren Langer and Investment Manager Jessica Ren celebrate the 50th episode of The Rate Debate. With 50 insightful discussions on the RBA's decisions and their market impacts, from unexpected rate cuts to bold hikes, they've covered it all.

To mark this milestone, they are joined by special guest Hans Lee from Livewire Markets. Together, they tackle the RBA's most recent monetary policy decision, unpack the recent chaos caused by the US jobs report and explore whether recession fears are throwing investors off course.

But the big question remains: Is Australia on the tail end of a global macro regime change?

Pundits of Australia's economy expect the central bank will maintain its default rhetoric of “vigilance against inflation risks”. However, given the number of “ifs and buts” in its most recent statement, the RBA seems to be less certain of the next move.

In episode 49 of The Rate Debate, Co-Head of Fixed Income Darren Langer and Investment Manager Jessica Ren explore whether the RBA's gentler approach will continue to work, discuss the global interest rate-cutting party that is underway, debate if Australia should follow suit without considering its own circumstances, and what this means for fixed income investors.

The RBA is, and continues to remain an independent central bank, committed to openness, transparency, and accountability. Despite this, perceptions in the Australian market continue to challenge the credibility of its independence. 

In episode 48 of the Rate Debate, Darren is joined by Investment Manager Jessica Ren to discuss the latest rate decision, share their opinions on why monetary policy shouldn't be run in isolation but hand in hand with fiscal and regulatory policy and unpack why the fight against inflation will be a slow and bumpy ride. 

The RBA has scrapped any hints of potential further hikes, sparking speculation on whether it will continue to be open on hiking, despite pivoting to a more neutral guidance.

In episode 47 of The Rate Debate, co-head of Fixed Income Darren Langer and Investment Manager Jessica Ren unpack the RBA's "shift in language" from a tightening bias to a neutral rate outlook, share their thoughts on the rebound of consumer confidence and evaluate the likelihood of a policy shift by global central banks this year.

The RBA may have started its new regime of two-day meetings and press conferences to improve transparency, yet the outcome remained the same as it was when it last met: no change to the cash rate.

In the first episode of The Rate Debate for 2024, co-head of Fixed Income Darren Langer is joined by Investment Manager Jessica Ren to analyse the RBA’s new approach, unpick the labour market outlook, and discuss whether geopolitical tensions are likely to be the largest challenge facing central bankers in the year ahead.

Find out more in episode 46 of The Rate Debate.

The RBA has granted a festive reprieve for mortgage holders, keeping interest rates on hold in line with expectations after inflation continued to slow. The year 2023 was characterised by a period dominated by inflation risk, geopolitics and monetary tightening. Will these economic conditions persist in the new year?

 In the final episode of The Rate Debate for 2024, Darren Langer and Jessica Ren discuss their outlook on the global economy, share their views on whether we can expect a hard or soft landing, and explain why now is a good time to own fixed income.

The RBA delivers a Melbourne Cup rate hike to curb persistent inflation. Rising energy and service costs are contributing factors, but the post-pandemic spending spree, favouring experiences over possessions, raises questions about “funflation” stoking inflationary pressures. Will higher rates further fan the flames? Darren is joined by his new sparring partner, Jessica Ren, to explore these dynamics and more in episode 44 of The Rate Debate.

September was a tough month for the fixed-rate bond market, but on the flip side, credit spreads narrowed. In this month’s episode of The Rate Debate, Darren is joined by senior credit portfolio manager Phil Strano to give their insights and discuss the impact of a default cycle as quantitative easing ends, and monetary policy starts to normalise. 

Outgoing Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe finished his tenure as he began by keeping rates on hold as inflation cools. 

With inflation past its peak, can we expect rate cuts on the horizon, and could a softening of China's economy bring them even closer or will services inflation drive the incoming governor Michele Bullock to deliver a rate rise later this year?

Darren is joined by special guest Roy Keenan, Co-Head of Fixed Income, to explore this and the outlook for credit markets in episode 42 of The Rate Debate.

Amidst ongoing economic uncertainties, the RBA has seen fit to keep rates on hold for a consecutive month and wait to see how the lagging effects of 12 rate hikes play out.

While inflation is decelerating, uncertainty abounds over consumer spending, falling productivity and wage growth. Will the central bank's aim to deliver a soft landing make it harder to get inflation back to target, meaning that this pause is short-lived?

Darren is joined by special guest Phil Strano, Senior Portfolio Manager in charge of credit research, to explore this and more in episode 41 of The Rate Debate.