The Rate Debate

September was a tough month for the fixed-rate bond market, but on the flip side, credit spreads narrowed. In this month’s episode of The Rate Debate, Darren is joined by senior credit portfolio manager Phil Strano to give their insights and discuss the impact of a default cycle as quantitative easing ends, and monetary policy starts to normalise. 

Outgoing Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe finished his tenure as he began by keeping rates on hold as inflation cools. 

With inflation past its peak, can we expect rate cuts on the horizon, and could a softening of China's economy bring them even closer or will services inflation drive the incoming governor Michele Bullock to deliver a rate rise later this year?

Darren is joined by special guest Roy Keenan, Co-Head of Fixed Income, to explore this and the outlook for credit markets in episode 42 of The Rate Debate.

Amidst ongoing economic uncertainties, the RBA has seen fit to keep rates on hold for a consecutive month and wait to see how the lagging effects of 12 rate hikes play out.

While inflation is decelerating, uncertainty abounds over consumer spending, falling productivity and wage growth. Will the central bank's aim to deliver a soft landing make it harder to get inflation back to target, meaning that this pause is short-lived?

Darren is joined by special guest Phil Strano, Senior Portfolio Manager in charge of credit research, to explore this and more in episode 41 of The Rate Debate.

The RBA has paused on hiking rates (for now) creating some big winners and losers. 

This month Darren is joined by special guest Roy Keenan, Co-Head of Fixed Income, to identify the potential warning signs for lenders, discuss whether Australia's banks will remain "unquestionably strong", and examine which companies in the consumer sector will stand to win or lose.

Darren and Roy discuss this and more in episode 40 of The Rate Debate.

Australia has been delivered another rate hike in an attempt to "quash" inflation. This month Darren debates with special guest Tim Toohey, Head of Macro and Strategy, the risks posed by rising wages and weak productivity growth, and why the RBA continue to change its goalposts to drive down inflation.

Hitting the economy with surprise after surprise, the RBA takes another fresh assault to tackle inflation head-on by taking the cash rate to 3.85%. Continued mixed signals from Australia’s central bank are causing havoc within the domestic economy. With the RBA not ruling out further rate hikes, Darren and Chris look into the impact on markets and discuss their thoughts on the future of the RBA in episode 38 of The Rate Debate.

Despite the RBA's massive rate "U-turn" and their insistence that we are in the final stage of the hiking cycle, has it come too late to stop a recession? Chris Rands and Darren Langer examine the factors influencing the market and reveal their expectations of the economy and the Australian credit market in episode 37 of The Rate Debate.

After hiking for the tenth consecutive month, the RBA has Australia questioning whether its repeated actions to combat inflation will cause an overshoot and push the nation into recession. 

From a wage-price spiral, rising unemployment, and faltering GDP, it seems the consumer and government sectors have been the most exposed to the ongoing "inflationary pulse". Do we think Australian companies will lead the charge and are we starting to see Fixed Income revert to more atypical behaviour following a challenging 12 months? 

Chris and Darren debate this and more in episode 36 of The Rate Debate.

 At its first meeting for 2023, the RBA hiked rates for the ninth consecutive month to urgently tame inflation, telling the market to expect more to come. Given Australia’s inflation levels have lagged the US, is Australia six months behind? or are we going into a period of higher inflation than the rest of the world?

Chris and Darren debate this and more in episode 35 of The Rate Debate.

The RBA delivered an eighth-straight rate hike to hit a 10-year high to round out a tumultuous 2022. 
 
In the final episode of The Rate Debate for the year, Darren and Chris discuss their thoughts on further tightening next year, whether a global recession could solve the inflation problem and the impact of the fixed-rate mortgage cliff on Australian homeowners and the domestic economy.