Instead of the traditional Easter Egg, the Dismal Science pod has a quick take on the implications of 'Liberation Day' and its aftermath in its Easter basket. It's tariff free! (Note, contents may include some discussion of trade policy tools.)

For more economic insights from the AICD's Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell, including his weekly economic update, head to: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html.

In this live from the Australian Governance Summit episode, hosts Raphael Dixon and Mark Thurwal analyze current economic and geopolitical developments.

They discuss the "Trump trade" market fluctuations, US CHIPS Act's mixed impact on semiconductor manufacturing, and China's growing chip capabilities. The conversation covers Germany's potential defense spending increase, US steel tariffs affecting Australia, contradictions in US onshoring and immigration policies, and the possibility of talent flowing from the US to countries like Australia.

Throughout, they offer practical investment guidance for navigating uncertain markets.

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This week on the Dismal Science, Raphael and Mark dissect the latest Australian GDP figures, revealing the end of the per capita recession, though productivity remains a concern with a third consecutive quarter of falling GDP per hour worked.

Turning their attention to the global stage, they examine the evolving economic landscape in the United States, with the Atlanta Fed now forecasting contraction and the impact of newly implemented tariffs. They explore how these factors, coupled with significant geopolitical uncertainties including the suspension of US military aid to Ukraine, are contributing to market jitters and a shifting focus away from previous narratives like AI.

Finally, they consider the potential economic ramifications of the US Department of Government Efficiency (Doge) initiative.

Read Mark's weekly newsletter here: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html

This week, Raphael and Mark dissect the latest inflation data and react to recent rate cuts, examining whether the soft landing declared by the IMF is truly secure.

Mark shares a sneak peek of his upcoming article in Company Director magazine, outlining eight key global uncertainties that could derail the current economic outlook.

They explore topics such as diverging central bank rate paths, the impact of a potential Trump administration, the fraying rules-based international system, demographic transitions, technological revolutions (AI, bioscience, energy), the energy transition, state-based armed conflict, and domestic political uncertainty.

Despite the risks, is there room for optimism, or are we heading towards a "G-Zero" world?

Read Mark's weekly newsletter here: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html

We're back, and we force Mark to take a victory lap for his February rate cut prediction! We dive into the details of the RBA's decision and its implications for future cuts.

Then, we dissect the market freakout following the release of Deepseek's open-source AI model. What does it say about AI market leaders’ valuations, the effectiveness of export controls and the future of AI?

Finally, we discuss the return of "Tariff Man" and the potential for a Smoot-Hawley moment.

We’re taking a break from our usual format to look at some of the big technological and economic themes of 2024, and where they are going in 2025 and into the future.

• Mark and Raph discuss the explosion of AI and where it might be headed, as well as its impact on financial markets.
• We contemplate what might constitute the next big wave of global innovation.
• Will AI prove to be transformative or merely a sustaining innovation?
• And could the changing geopolitical landscape mean the end of hyper-globalisation?

We will be back with our regular episodes in February. 

If you enjoyed or hated this episode, we’d love to hear your feedback! Send us an email:

[email protected]

This week we are joined by Su-Lin Ong, Managing Director, Chief Economist & Senior Corporate Relationship Manager of RBC Capital Markets. Together Mark and Su-lin reflect on Australia’s economic conditions and the RBA’s 2024 performance.

They unpack why the RBA has held interest rates steady for so long – and what this means for Australia’s economic outlook, including a (mild) disagreement on the outlook for interest rates. Plus, they discuss the impact of a new US administration, the RBC's unique projections, the global easing cycle, and how Australia stacks up against the rest of the world.

Subscribe to Mark's weekly column here: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html

The RBA keeps interest rates on hold, but the big news is a change in tone that suggests Mark's long predicted February rate cut is back on the table.

Also, Mark looks back at his predictions from a year ago, revisiting his forecasts for inflation, unemployment, and economic growth.

Get your ticket to AGS: https://www.aicd.com.au/events/australian-governance-summit.html

Subscribe to Mark's weekly column here: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html

This week, we examine Australia's latest soft GDP figures. The headline number is a weak 0.3% quarterly expansion, the lowest rate of annual growth since the pandemic with private sector demand contributing nothing to this meager growth figure.

Will the RBA stay the course with rates on hold in the face of a deepening per capita recession and falling living standards?

We also look at what's driving Australia's poor economic performance relative to other OECD nations. Get your ticket to AGS: https://www.aicd.com.au/events/australian-governance-summit.html

Subscribe to Mark's weekly column here: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html