The Dismal Science

Today we have an in-depth look at the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook report, before returning home to dissect the bumper jobs numbers and latest consumer confidence numbers.

In brief, it was an optimistic outlook from the IMF, begging the question, is central bank credibility back? With that said, champagne flutes should remain in the fridge, as there are still a litany of risks to the global economy identified, and suggestions put forward for both governments and bureaucrats - but how likely are they to happen?

And then we revisit Mark's February prediction of our first rate cut in light of huge jobs numbers, and increasing consumer sentiment. Read more from Mark on the AICD website: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html Send feedback to: [email protected]

Another week, another economic roller coaster. Join Mark and Raph to discuss the recent volatility in oil prices, driven by factors including the Israel-Iran conflict and speculation about Chinese stimulus measures. We then unpack the latest RBA minutes, analysing the central bank's current thinking on interest rates and its assessment of the economic outlook. Have they made a dovish turn? Finally, we take a look at the latest consumer and business confidence figures. Are Australians feeling more optimistic about the economy? Well, as usual these days, the story is mixed... If you'd like to give us feedback, feel free to email us at: [email protected] And for a deeper dive, read Mark's weekly columns here.

Much to discuss on the agenda today.

We unpack recent housing data, exploring the slowdown in price and rent growth alongside lagging approvals.

Retail sales showed strength - but the RBA and other analysts disagree on why. Were they impacted by the weather, stage 3 tax cuts, or an early father's day? Mark will be the judge.

Additionally, Australia has hit a fiscal milestone with back-to-back budget surpluses for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis, while the Productivity Commission has provided a sobering update on our productivity growth.

Finally, we'll discuss the dizzying array of factors impacting oil prices on top of the escalating Middle East conflict and what this means for the global economy.

We begin with a look at recent inflation data. While headline inflation has decreased, Mark explore why the underlying numbers suggest continued vigilance is necessary.

Our discussion then turns to the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest decision to maintain current interest rates.

The focal point of our episode is China's economic situation. We address:

• The ongoing property sector challenges
• Weak consumer sentiment and deflationary pressures
• Policy responses from the People's Bank of China, including:
• Interest rate reductions
• Easing of bank reserve requirements
• Mortgage rate adjustments
• Liquidity measures for equity markets

We evaluate these interventions and their potential impact on China's economic trajectory, considering both domestic and global implications.

For a deeper dive into the weekly figures and trends, visit AICD Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell's weekly column.

In this short but packed episode, we go through the complex economic landscape facing Australia and the world.

We discuss the significance of the still tight Australian labour market and its implications for monetary policy, dissect why the US Federal Reserve decided on a rather large 50 basis point rate cut, and explore how Middle East tensions could spark global economic instability. All these factors set the stage for a complex upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia meeting.

We love to hear your feedback, email us at: [email protected]

Prompted by proposed changes to Australia's Reserve Bank, as well as increased criticism of central banks globally, today we discuss what central bank independence means, its historical development, and the evidence for its effectiveness.

Mark analyses key moments in the formation of modern central bank theory including "The golden age of central banks " of the pre-2008 era , the impact of the Global Financial Crisis, and the post-COVID inflation shock.

We also discuss the implications of central banks acting as "accountability sinks" and explore current challenges to their independence.

This episode aims to provide context for ongoing debates about the role of central banks in modern economies and why these issues matter. We'd love to hear from you as to whether you would enjoy more episodes that provide this type of context, would rather we stick to the latest data, or anything else! Please email us at: [email protected] You can find more of Mark's analysis, including weekly economic data here.

We welcome back AICD Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell, fresh from his holiday, as we dive into the market turbulence that peaked while Mark was celebrating his dad's 80th birthday in Saltburn.

We explore the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to hold steady on rates, as anticipated, and examine the global interest rate landscape, including hints of US rate cuts following the Fed Chair's speech at Jackson Hole. We also dissect the clash between market expectations and the RBA's timeline for cutting rates in Australia.

Plus, we take a closer look at the latest GDP report: with six consecutive quarters of per capita recession, growth driven largely by population expansion and public spending, and signs of weakness in the private sector as household consumption, savings, and private investment all fell.

It's our 200th episode and Ivan's last ever :( Mark turns the tables on him and asks what's changed in economics since we started the podcast and what he's learned along the way. Plus, an experiment in UBI and what we can expect from Trumponomics and Kamalanomics.

A big thank you to all of our listeners for getting us this far.

Mark Thirlwell is once again joined by Raphael Dixon to discuss the new consumer confidence survey, revealing falling confidence, as well as expectations of an interest rate rise jump.

Topic two discusses the unlikely "marriage of convenience" between some renting millenials and some debt free baby boomers, both hoping for rate hikes.

And finally, birth rates: how do governments use fiscal policy to encourage people to have more babies? So far, not much seems to work.

Referenced articles:

The Economist - Can the rich world escape its baby crisis? (paywalled)

IMF - The New Economics of Fertility

Mark regales us with the vibe on the ground in Canberra. Plus, an around the grounds on:

• RBA Minutes

• Core logic house and rent price data

• Retail sales numbers

• Job ads

And the number of the week this week asks: if climate change results in supply shocks become increasingly regular to the point of predictability, should food inflation still be excluded from core inflation numbers?