The Rate Guy

What if the Fed's inflation target was a range of 2%-3% instead of a hard 2%? Would the market be as anxious? Core PCE is at 2.6%—inflation may not be fully defeated, but it's contained enough for the Fed to shift focus.

Meanwhile, money supply is rising, but without velocity, it's just sitting on the sidelines. The real driver of inflation? Money changing hands—something we'll be watching closely.

Plus:

• The Atlanta Fed's GDP forecast just fell off a cliff—from 4% growth to -1.5%. The culprit? Tariffs.
• Job market warning signs: layoffs, spending freezes, and consumer pullback.
• Treasury yields react post-Eagles Super Bowl win—are we headed back below 4%?

It's all in this week's episode.

On this episode of The Rate Guy we lay out two lists. The first is our Top 10 favorite things from going to the Super Bowl. And then 59 reasons why the 10 Yr Treasury will fall to 4%. All of the reasons may or may not be directly related, but you can be the judge of that!

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the Eagles vs. Chiefs showdown—and why it's a brutal matchup for the Birds. But we also talk about the games market parallels!

Mahomes = Inflation. Refs = Tariffs. Hurts = GDP. Jake Elliott = The 10-Year Treasury.

What does it all mean for the game and the economy? Tune in for Super Bowl takes, market insights, and just the right amount of Philly bias. Go Birds!

On this episode of The Rate Guy podcast we talk about 47's effect on rates, what to expect at this week's Fed meeting and of course a little bit of playoff football. This one's short and sweet because JP's is just too hype for the Eagles game. Go Birds!

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss inflation data and an interest rate outlook for 2025.

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk the latest jobs report, challenging the narrative that the economy is overheating. We also break down this week's inflation data and what it could mean moving forward.

We also explore a possible rebuilding strategy for LA. Southern California is like a second home to us, and we're holding LA, its residents, our friends and customers close in our thoughts and prayers during this horrific time.

On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP makes his lead pipe lock guarantees for 2025. We also take a look at his 2024 forecast and analyze what he got right and what was a big miss.

Thanks for listening this year! We'll see you in 2025 as we kick off our 5th season.

Happy New Year!

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss what to expect at this week's FOMC meeting and recite JP's Interest Rate spin on 'Twas The Night Before Christmas.

JP will send out a newsletter Wednesday with his analysis of the meeting. If you'd like to recieve that subscribe to the Pensford Newsletter here.

On this episode of The Rate Guys we discuss the Jobs Report and.how it will affect the Fed Meeting. Also, what data point can you not trust right now. And we of course had to touch on the heartbreak of the Penn State loss. So if you want to skip the football, fast forward to about the 3:45 mark.

For those that want to check out the the CME Fed Match link that JP discussed. Here you go!

On this episode of The Rate Guy it's all about inflation, jobs and how the data this week may impact the Fed's decision to cut or not at this month's meeting.