On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss some alarming data about consumer behavior, inflation expectations, what to look for in this week's inflation data and possible good news for interest rate caps. 

This episode of The Rate Guy Podcast is titled, "No, China is Not Dumping Treasurys". We had a better title, but Harbaugh stole it. (You know JP can't resist making some digs) This week we discuss the latest headlines about China selling Treasurys. The reasons they would sell, why they wouldn't sell and we get an expert's take on what the global data REALLY looks like. Thanks Brad! 

This is graph heavy, so you may want to check out the Pensford newsletter to view them and the amazing photoshop job of Harbaugh as a Pulp Fiction character.  This podcast is chalk full of JP angst, Chicago sirens and data that may leave you questioning the headlines. 

Link to Brad Setser's "China Isn't Shifting Away From the Dollar or Dollar Bonds".

On this week's Rate Guy podcast, we're zoning in on one of the biggest questions we got from ULI: what will rate cuts look like in 2024. We'll unpack the three potential paths the Fed might take and the reasoning behind each. Plus, we're taking a closer look at that less-than-stellar jobs report to see what it really means. And expect a common thread to emerge from the flurry of Fed speeches lined up this week—we'll tell you what we think that will be. 

As promised, Ken/Barbie photo, the Sphere ad and the Birth/Death graph.

Birth Death adjustments continue their suspicious upward trend. Remember, this is the government’s estimate of jobs created out of the “birth or death” of businesses…but it’s a total guess. Is it weird to anyone else that this fudge factor keeps going up month to month? We are becoming overly reliant on this estimate to maintain positive job gains so the headlines can scream “tight labor market!”

On this episode of The Rate Guy podcast we talk about GOATs, in sports, in comedy...in interest rates. We also analyze economic conditions and determine which inflation cycle fromt the past are we repeating and why, this week's Fed meeting, how governtment spending is impacting treasury yields, and the biggest contributing factors to a 5% 10Y Treasury and what will need to happen for it to move back toward 4%. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy podcast, we dive into the "gangbuster" jobs report and what details to pay attention to in this week's inflation data. Curious about the Fed's game plan and how it might impact 2024 rates? We've got some theories...but definitely not the conspiracy kind!

Numbers reference if the podcast. For more info check out the Pensford Newsletter. 

On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we dive into big headlines. The 10 Year Treasury's flirting with 5%, GDP, Inflation, Oil, a looming recession and how that won't be enough for the Fed to start cutting...especially when they're working off stale a$$ data. Politics also got spicy with a near shutdown, but with it staying open we'll get the Jobs report and more importantly, JP will get his JOLTS report that he so loves!

If you missed our Q3 Interest Rate webinar here is the link! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8js3C0zyUiQ

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the upcoming Fed meeting, Inflation trends, the influence of foreign central banks on the 10 Year Treasury and JP creates the seamingly impossible parallel between economic conditions and prime time tv. 

We have our quarterly webinar this Thursday! Register here : https://www.pensford.com/q3-pensford-webinar-2023

For graphs referenced : https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/inflation-hammocking

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the unexpected outcome of the Texas vs. Bama game and take a look at the job market nuances and how they are coming up with the data that The Fed is so dependent on. We also talk about this week's anticipated inflation data and its implications.

On this Labor Day episode of The Rate Guy podcast we talk about what else...labor! The JOLTs hitting its lowest since April '21, why the Fed's still discussing rate hikes with all of the data pointing the opposite direction and JP's lead pipe lock NFL narrative predictions.

On this week's Rate Guy Podcast explore the surprising link between Penn State's 1994-95 football season and today's inflation challenges. We break down Dr. Brent Ambrose's Penn State Alternative Inflation Index and what it reveals about inflation during economic peaks and troughs. Hang with us through a unique blend of football memories and economic insights, as JP weaves it all together to challenge some traditional views on monetary policy.

Links Referenced:

1. The research paper itself: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2787193 2. The indices they created as a result of the research: https://sites.psu.edu/inflation/

Graphs referenced can be found in the Pensford Newsletter on the homepage under "Latest Newsletter" https://www.pensford.com/