The Rate Guy

Football season is back, and so is JP's trash talk! In this episode of The Rate Guy, we touch on some friendly (or not-so-friendly) college football banter and dive into the real game: Fed policy moves. With Powell signaling a rate cut next month and the labor market's true strength under scrutiny, we break down what this means for the economy. We'll also explore how misleading job data could be skewing perceptions and why easing off the brakes might be just what the economy needs right now.

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss this week's Jackson Hole meeting where the theme is "Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy." We talk about some of the things they might touch on and how the market may react. We also discuss the consumer spending situation; why it's not as rosy as the number suggests and why these red flags have not yet caused a more significant slowdown in consumer spending.

Here is the link to the quarterly report that the NY Fed puts out on consumer debt that we discuss. For graphs referenced, check out this week's Pensford Newsletter.

On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we get a little creative and compare Olympic athletes to players in the Interest Rate game. On the heels of a couple data heavy weeks, we hope this is a breathe of fresh air for you all. And you may be asking, there's a connection between the Australian "break dancer" and interest rates!? Yep, there sure is!

In this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast, we dive into the concept of the "JP Rule"—the idea that, given enough time, JP is always right—and compare it to the established Sahm and Taylor economic rules. We also cover one of the most significant economic weeks in recent memory, possibly since the Fed began hiking rates. There's a lot to discuss this week, including the potential number of rate cuts this year and the factors that could influence them. We'll explore the chaos that erupted after the latest jobs report, the implications of the Sahm Rule being triggered, and the importance of the Quits, Layoffs, and Labor Supply report. Tune in to find out why these issues deserve your attention.

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss what to expect at this week's upcoming Fed meeting, jobs report and what impact those may have on rates and cap pricing. JP also gives an update on the JMo wager!

On this week's episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the upcoming FOMC meeting and its potential impact on interest rates. We'll cover market updates, dive into recent Fed speeches and we'll continue our Cap conversation exploring cap pricing scenarios and the effects of market volatility.

The good article referenced was by WSJ journalist Greg Ip link here and indicated the Fed should begin cutting now.

This was a graph heavy newsletter! To view them in the newsletter, click here.

On this episode of The Rate Guy we dive into last week's CPI report, how it may impact rate trajectory, how cap prices may behave in a falling rate environment and what strategies you should be considering for your upcoming caps.

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the "HOT" jobs data, the upcoming inflation data, Powell's testimony and the liklihood of Fed cuts this year.

As always you can read the Pensford Newsletter here.

On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we dig a little deeper into the recent Jobs Report and discuss the underlying data that should be getting attention, CPI, the ECB cutting and how all of that may affect this week's Fed meeting.

On this episode of The Rate Guy we're breaking down the Core PCE numbers and JMo's wager tracker—are we heading to the Caribbean or not? Plus, we explore why the Fed might be shifting its focus from inflation to jobs, the implications of recent job reports, and what Friday's labor data could mean for future rate cuts. Join us as we take a closer look at the economic balancing act the Fed is faced with and how that could shape the rest of the year.

In case you want to check out the interesting piece we reference by Dr. Jeremy Horpedahl that suggested job gains are artificially inflated. Read Here