Bankless

The Real Crypto Cycle: What Happens When Global Liquidity Peaks | Michael Howell


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Global liquidity veteran Michael Howell joins to map out the “master variable” driving asset prices: a 65-month global liquidity and debt refinancing cycle that underpins booms, busts, and the recent “everything bubble.”

He breaks down the coming debt maturity wall, rising repo stress, the shift from Fed QE to “Treasury QE,” and a new capital war between a US dollar stablecoin system and China’s gold-backed strategy.

Plus, what all of this means for Bitcoin, gold, equities, and how to position as the current cycle rolls over. 


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TIMESTAMPS


0:00 Intro

0:45 Global Liquidity: Theory of Everything?

14:49 Will it Go Up Forever?

24:50 Where Are We in The Cycle?

34:23 Asset Allocation

47:14 Can The Monetary Regime Break?

58:55 China Gold vs US Tech

1:04:29 Crypto & Gold

1:08:03 4-Year Cycles

1:12:40 AI Bubble

1:15:14 Global Liquidity Limitations

1:18:39 Next 3-6 Months

1:20:24 Assets to Hold

1:21:25 Closing & Disclaimers


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RESOURCES


CrossBorder Capital

https://x.com/crossbordercap 


CrossBorder Capital Website

https://crossbordercapital.com     


Capital Wars Substack

https://capitalwars.substack.com/ 


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Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here:

https://www.bankless.com/disclosures⁠

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