The Reinsurance Podcast

Sub-$50bn of first-half cat losses, no hurricanes last year, none so far this year, and rates heading south. Verisk's Rob Newbold boards the TRP yacht at Monte Carlo RVS to explain why reinsurance should still be braced for $171bn of insured catastrophe loss in an average year. Then he gets into what AI is actually doing to cat modelling, from globally correlated models to agents that talk to each other so humans can get on with deciding.

WHAT YOU'LL LEARN:

• Why Verisk puts modelled global insured cat loss at $171bn a year, and why a light first half doesn't change the maths
• How to separate the market cycle from the risk itself, with the 1-in-100 now close to $500bn
• Where AI is changing cat modelling for real: a physically correlated global model, plus agents handling the button-pressing so people can make the calls
• Why data centre exposure deserves a look before it surprises you
• What Rob thinks will finally tip reinsurance into using AI properly

TIMESTAMPS:00:00 Intro00:28 A $171bn average loss in a sub-$50bn year01:48 Why cat models don't care where you sit in the cycle02:46 AI in cat modelling and the first globally correlated model03:52 Agents calling agents, humans making the decisions04:46 Token bills, data centres and the hyperscaler question06:18 New perils, faster models and what clients actually want08:00 Meeting clients where they are, and what forces the flip09:02 Final word: the cycle doesn't set the risk

EPISODE LINKS:Rob's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rob-newbold-080380/

Verisk: https://www.verisk.com/solutions/catastrophe-risk-solutions/

CONNECT WITH US:Say Hello: [email protected]Website: https://www.supercede.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/supercedehqX: https://twitter.com/SupercedeHQYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SupercedeHQRSS Feed: https://anchor.fm/s/7e741c8c/podcast/rss

New capital is still queuing up for Lloyd's, but Argenta's Kate Tongue and Robert Flach reckon the smart money is taking its time. On board the Supercede yacht at Monte Carlo RVS, they explain three things: why investors tend to show up a year too late, why a diversified Lloyd's portfolio can rival ILS returns with less risk, and why capital cares less about a syndicate's AI than about who's parameterising it.

WHAT YOU'LL LEARN:

• Why new capital providers are playing the long game at Lloyd's, starting with 20 to 30 million of premium in year one
• Which investors are now eyeing Lloyd's, from US mutuals with surplus on their balance sheets to hedge funds and pension schemes
• How Lloyd's capital efficiency lets a spread portfolio compete with ILS, where the outcome depends on whether the wind blows
• Why syndicate selection matters more than class selection now that the easy-money years are over
• How investors with the right mindset can treat geopolitical losses as next year's opportunity

TIMESTAMPS:00:00 Intro00:51 Is There Still Room for New Capital at Lloyd's?01:55 Why Most Investors Arrive a Year Too Late02:45 The New Capital Pool: Mutuals, Hedge Funds and Pensions03:47 Teaching Investors That Lloyd's Is (Still) Complicated04:29 Syndicate Selection After the Easy-Money Years05:31 Niche Classes, Diversification and the ILS Comparison07:15 Does a Syndicate's Tech Story Matter to Capital?08:43 When AI Will Actually Move the Dial09:41 Geopolitical Risk: Threat or Opportunity for Investors?11:16 Lloyd's Leadership and Tougher Consortium Scrutiny

EPISODE LINKS:Kate's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/katejohnsontongue/

Robert's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/robert-flach-21ab114/

Argenta: https://www.argentagroup.com/

CONNECT WITH US:Say Hello: [email protected]Website: https://www.supercede.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/supercedehqX: https://twitter.com/SupercedeHQYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SupercedeHQRSS Feed: https://anchor.fm/s/7e741c8c/podcast/rss

Property is softening at a sprint. Casualty is walking, and keeping one eye on US social inflation. On the TRP yacht at Monte Carlo RVS 2026, Lockton Re's Carla Moffett and Sam Sweeney explain why casualty reinsurance won't follow the rest of the market down, and why the brokers worth hiring now do much more than place the treaty.

WHAT YOU'LL LEARN:

• Why casualty capacity is plentiful but pricing isn't dropping as fast as property
• How portfolio quota shares covering MGA and delegated books are creating placements outside the renewal season
• What reinsurers want to hear on social inflation: claims defence, early reserving, paying quickly
• How to make sure hard-won original rate gets credit on the reinsurance side
• Why blanket AI exclusions don't work when silent AI already sits inside PI, D&O and GL
• Where AI is already sharpening broker work: submissions, data ingestion, contract reviews

TIMESTAMPS:00:00 Intro00:18 Why casualty isn't softening like property01:58 Portfolio solutions and off-cycle MGA placements02:37 Social inflation and the reinsurers who reserve early03:56 From transaction processor to trusted advisor05:18 The broker as part-time recruitment consultant06:01 PFAS, AI liabilities and what's really on the agenda07:30 Why blanket AI exclusions make no sense in casualty08:13 Born digital: using AI to sharpen the broker09:24 Are we already AI-enabled?

EPISODE LINKS:Carla's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/carlamoffett/

Sam's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/samuel-sweeney-34744851/

Lockton Re: https://global.lockton.com/re/

CONNECT WITH US:Say Hello: [email protected]Website: https://www.supercede.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/supercedehqX: https://twitter.com/SupercedeHQYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SupercedeHQRSS Feed: https://anchor.fm/s/7e741c8c/podcast/rss

Rachel Turk, Chief of Performance and Strategy at Lloyd's, explains why the flood of third-party capital is good news only while there's fresh risk for it to chase, and why institutional money might one day walk for reasons that have nothing to do with the insurance cycle. Plus: data centres that want $20bn of cover but not the bill, and why agentic AI underwriting only works if it explains itself in plain English.

WHAT YOU'LL LEARN:

• Why capital pouring in through London Bridge 2 is healthy right now, and the one condition that keeps it that way
• How institutional capital could behave differently from trade capital, and why investor concentration is now on the Lloyd's watchlist
• Why portfolio solutions are outperforming the open market, and why "follow" capacity still demands active underwriting
• Why natural language, not code, is what makes AI-assisted underwriting auditable
• What's really stopping the data centre boom from being insured, and how bringing insurers in early changes the build

TIMESTAMPS:00:00 Intro00:22 Day one at RVS and the rise of third-party capital01:34 London Bridge 2 and the rush of capital into Lloyd's03:08 Where the risk lands when investors replace reinsurers04:52 Why portfolio solutions are beating the open market06:10 Follow arrangements that are anything but passive07:12 Algorithmic underwriting and AI that explains itself08:30 Will AI change underwriting or just speed it up?09:34 AI liability and the niche specialists at Lloyd's Lab10:27 The $20bn data centre question11:35 The risk premium pie chart and insurability by design13:02 Why data centres are a political risk too13:43 Rachel's final word on a softening market

EPISODE LINKS:
Rachel's LinkedIn: ⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/rachel-turk-4330046/⁠

Lloyd's: https://www.lloyds.com

CONNECT WITH US:Say Hello: [email protected]Website: https://www.supercede.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/supercedehqX: https://twitter.com/SupercedeHQYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SupercedeHQRSS Feed: https://anchor.fm/s/7e741c8c/podcast/rss

Two years ago Oak Global didn't exist. It now writes over $900m of income across two Lloyd's syndicates, posted an 84% combined ratio in its first year, and did it all in a reinsurance market that had already peaked. Cathal Carr, Founder & CEO, joins Ben at Monte Carlo RVS to explain why there's no perfect time to launch a reinsurer, only a proposition good enough to outlast the cycle.

WHAT YOU'LL LEARN:

• Why rate adequacy, not rate change, is the number to watch as the reinsurance market softens
• How a start-up reinsurer keeps growing with discipline by weighing gross and net portfolio composition against return on capital
• How Oak Global matches capital to risk across a primary reinsurance syndicate and a retro syndicate
• Why Lloyd's hybrid capital model, talent density and flow of business make London the launchpad of choice
• Why AI in reinsurance has to be technology built for talent, because nothing replaces trust

TIMESTAMPS:00:00 Intro00:24 Year two at Monte Carlo and the $900m milestone01:29 600 clients and why RVS is for listening02:28 Launching after the peak: why Oak believes in cycles04:07 An 84% combined ratio and growing with discipline05:10 Two syndicates, one for primary reinsurance and one for retro05:46 Matching capital to risk with Bain Capital and Lloyd's Names06:19 Why Lloyd's has been pivotal for a new reinsurer07:24 London's talent density and the flow of global business08:23 Building a culture with no single dominant bias09:47 AI as technology built for talent11:14 Wrap-up

EPISODE LINKS:Cathal's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cathal-carr-1850b724/

Oak Global: https://oakglobal.com/

CONNECT WITH US:Say Hello: [email protected]Website: https://www.supercede.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/supercedehqX: https://twitter.com/SupercedeHQYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SupercedeHQRSS Feed: https://anchor.fm/s/7e741c8c/podcast/rss

Sarah Wilson, Head of Outwards Reinsurance at MS Amlin, would rather know who'll still be on her panel when it isn't. Recorded in Monte Carlo in heat that could poach an egg, this is a cedent's case for picking reinsurance partners for the full cycle, not just the 1/1 renewals.

WHAT YOU'LL LEARN:

• Why a cedent in a soft market still picks reinsurers for the long haul rather than the cheapest line
• What sets reinsurers apart now that strong security is something most panels already have
• How MS Amlin looks across panels and classes when most of its portfolio renews at 1/1
• Why the industry needs to redesign first jobs for young talent, not remove them, as AI takes over the grunt work
• Where outwards teams want their time back so they can spend it on insight instead of assembly

TIMESTAMPS:00:00 Intro: a hot RVS and a big MS Amlin team in town00:30 Buyer's market or not, reinsurance is a promise to pay01:10 What reinsurers bring beyond capacity and good security02:00 Starting in the market at 16 and why juniors need a chance02:50 AI, disappearing starter roles and the rise of data insight04:00 1/1 buying, cross-class panels and the data pack grind04:50 After Monte: PCI, Bermuda and Baden05:20 Same conversation next year? Why nobody can call the turn

EPISODE LINKS:Sarah's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sarah-wilson-916871182/

MS Amlin: https://www.msamlin.com/

CONNECT WITH US:Say Hello: [email protected]Website: https://www.supercede.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/supercedehqX: https://twitter.com/SupercedeHQYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SupercedeHQRSS Feed: https://anchor.fm/s/7e741c8c/podcast/rss

Paolo Mantero, Group Head of Reinsurance at Zurich, spent his first RVS arguing it's the least useful conversation in the room. On the Reinsurance Podcast yacht, he makes the case for data centres, AI and climate risk instead, and explains why cedents who sit out the new economy lose the right to be heard.

WHAT YOU'LL LEARN:

• Why insurers risk irrelevance if they can't serve the fastest-growing part of the economy
• How cedents can claim a bigger share of data centre and infrastructure deals, and what staying on the sidelines costs them
• Where AI actually earns its keep in reinsurance: seeing the interconnections between risks, not just shaving time off processes
• Why your growth strategy, not the cycle, should frame every conversation with brokers and reinsurers
• How traditional reinsurance and capital markets each fit, and where sidecars come in
• Why prevention could become insurance's most important social role as climate volatility rises

TIMESTAMPS:00:00 Intro00:45 First Monte Carlo and cutting through the noise01:30 Economic growth and the data centre opportunity02:30 Why re/insurance struggles to serve the new economy03:15 The capital paradox: plenty of it, hard to reward04:15 If you don't participate, you don't have a voice05:15 Bringing reinsurance capital along for the ride06:15 Insurance risk as a diversifier for capital markets07:30 Sidecars, and why the traditional market still comes first08:45 Talking strategy with brokers and reinsurers, not the cycle10:15 The AI future arrives, bubble or no bubble11:15 Understanding risk better beats efficiency12:30 Climate volatility: are we equipped for it?13:45 Prevention and insurance's social role15:00 Final advice for Monte Carlo: stop talking about price

EPISODE LINKS:Paolo's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paolo-mantero-07029b/

Zurich: https://www.zurich.com/

CONNECT WITH US:Say Hello: [email protected]Website: https://www.supercede.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/supercedehqX: https://twitter.com/SupercedeHQYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SupercedeHQRSS Feed: https://anchor.fm/s/7e741c8c/podcast/rss

Two years of AI proofs of concept have left reinsurance with a mild hangover and a nagging suspicion that none of it was real. Céline Thierry, Senior Director, Reinsurance at Duck Creek, joins us at Monte Carlo RVS to explain why this year feels more grounded. The industry is spending less time on AI as a big idea and more on where it gives underwriting and reinsurance experts room to do the work only they can do.

WHAT YOU'LL LEARN:

• Why AI in reinsurance has moved from abstract ambition to practical friction-removal
• How climate and geopolitical risk make connecting underwriting and reinsurance data more urgent
• Why the US market is moving faster on AI adoption than Europe
• What Duck Creek's acquisition of Send says about proving AI beyond the POC stage
• Why the weekend-built policy admin system won't replace 30 years of relationships

TIMESTAMPS:00:00 Intro00:37 Céline on running Duck Creek's reinsurance product portfolio01:14 Why the AI conversation got more grounded this year02:10 Climate, geopolitics and risks that refuse to sit still02:59 Duck Creek, Send and why underwriting and reinsurance must connect03:55 Finally knowing what's actually in your portfolio04:32 The POC hangover, and why the US is adopting faster than Europe05:45 Is anyone asking AI to solve a specific problem yet?06:59 Can someone really build a policy admin system on their own?07:47 AI as a means, not a threat to expertise08:53 Would she have believed any of this two years ago?09:33 Outro

EPISODE LINKS:
Celine's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/celine-thierry-7640471/Duck Creek: https://www.duckcreek.com/

CONNECT WITH US:Say Hello: [email protected]Website: https://www.supercede.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/supercedehqX: https://twitter.com/SupercedeHQYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SupercedeHQRSS Feed: https://anchor.fm/s/7e741c8c/podcast/rss

Yassir Albaharna has been coming to Monte Carlo for almost 37 years, back when meetings lasted an hour and M&A hadn't yet thinned out the receptions. On the TRP yacht at RVS, the Group CEO of Trust Re explains why the Gulf's political violence losses are colliding with a soft reinsurance market. Also why cedents across the Middle East are finding their exposures outgrew their protection, and why the oldest rule in reinsurance buying is suddenly the most relevant.

WHAT YOU'LL LEARN:

• Why a capacity-driven soft market is still tightening wordings on political violence and contingent BI in the Gulf
• How an estimated $3-4bn of war and political violence losses could squeeze cedents' premium volumes in 2026
• Why Gulf cedents want more protection just as reinsurers get wary of poorly modelled risks
• Why "buy for the unknown" should shape your programme before renewal, not after the next loss
• Where the Middle East's insurance talent is coming from, and why keeping it is the real challenge

TIMESTAMPS:00:00 Intro00:37 Almost 37 years of RVS and how Monte Carlo has changed01:54 Hungry capacity meets Gulf political violence losses03:18 Why Gulf cedents face a premium squeeze in 202604:13 More protection wanted, less appetite offered, and buying for the unknown06:07 Where the Middle East's reinsurance talent is coming from07:55 Retention, IFCs and the London brokers moving east08:52 Advice from almost four decades in reinsurance10:22 Outro

EPISODE LINKS:
Trust Re: https://www.trustre.com/

CONNECT WITH US:Say Hello: [email protected]Website: https://www.supercede.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/supercedehqX: https://twitter.com/SupercedeHQYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SupercedeHQRSS Feed: https://anchor.fm/s/7e741c8c/podcast/rss

Richard Dudley, CEO of UK & International Reinsurance at BMS, joins us on The Reinsurance Podcast yacht in Monaco to explain why handing 40 years of US treaty reinsurance history to Willis was the right call, then takes on climate, sanctions and where AI genuinely helps in reinsurance today.

WHAT YOU'LL LEARN:

- Why BMS sold its US treaty reinsurance business to Willis, and why losing 15% of the business can sharpen focus on the other 85%

- How climate change opens revenue lines beyond weather perils, from renewable energy financing to warranty and indemnity cover

- Why fractured, inconsistent sanctions regimes are quietly a bigger headache for global broking than tariffs

- Why AI's real value in reinsurance is forcing companies to fix broken manual processes before automating them

- How real-time portfolio views could accelerate the shift toward portfolio trading, broker facilities and MGAs

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

00:37 Why BMS Sold Its US Treaty Reinsurance Business to Willis

03:35 The Climate Opportunity Reinsurance Keeps Overlooking

05:06 How Fractured Sanctions Are Complicating Global Broking

06:37 Why AI Is Forcing Reinsurers to Fix Broken Processes First

08:04 Real-Time Portfolio Views and the "Minority Report" Future

EPISODE LINKS:

Richard's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-dudley-bms/

BMS: https://www.bmsgroup.com/en

CONNECT WITH US:

Say Hello: ⁠[email protected]⁠

Website: ⁠https://www.supercede.com⁠ 

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/supercedehq 

X: ⁠https://twitter.com/SupercedeHQ⁠ 

YouTube:⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/@SupercedeHQ⁠ 

RSS Feed: ⁠https://anchor.fm/s/7e741c8c/podcast/rss⁠