This week on The Riff, Erik and Byrne talk about why you should ignore the 2024 presidential election news cycle, the barriers to the success of prediction markets, why the United States can't be a net exporter, and more.

The Riff is sponsored by Shopify: https://shopify.com/momentofzen for a $1/month trial period.

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The Riff is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. Learn more: https://turpentine.co

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Check out Erik's new show Request for Startups featuring a rotating cast of founders and investors sharing their requests for startups they want to exist in the world, and also their stories of navigating the idea maze in different sectors so founders don’t have to reinvent the wheel anymore. The first episode is out now - we cover better dating apps, references as a service, and WeWork for productivity

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We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.

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Thanks to our sponsor: SHOPIFY

Shopify is the global commerce platform that helps you sell at every stage of your business. Shopify powers 10% of all e-commerce in the US. And Shopify’s the global force behind Allbirds, Rothy’s, and Brooklinen, and 1,000,000s of other entrepreneurs across 175 countries. From their all-in-one e-commerce platform, to their in-person POS system – wherever and whatever you’re selling, Shopify’s got you covered. With free Shopify Magic, sell more with less effort by whipping up captivating content that converts – from blog posts to product descriptions using AI. Sign up for $1/month trial period: https://shopify.com/momentofzen

---

LINKS:

Byrne's writing: https://thediff.co

---

X / TWITTER:

@eriktorenberg (Erik)

@byrnehobart (Byrne)

@turpentinemedia (Turpentine)

---

TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Intro

(00:50) Byrne talks about why we should ignore stuff about politics for this 2024 election

(07:35) The underrated impact of either a Biden or Trump presidency

(12:12) The barriers to the success of prediction markets

(16:27) Sponsor | Shopify

(18:10) Prediction markets for career success

(24:20) The economics of information and the give-to-get model

(30:53) Mass adoption of prediction markets

(35:35) Why do companies buy expensive headquarters?

(45:10) Industry talent cycles

(51:32) Russia and China - building economic blocs from net exporters

(56:55) Wrap

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The Riff is a production from Turpentine

Producer: Sam Kaufman

Editor: Seven Morris

For guest or sponsorship inquiries please contact [email protected]

Today's episode is a throwback to when Erik interviewed Byrne Hobart for the first time on the Venture Stories by Village Global podcast. Byrne and Erik go deep on technological change, debate centralization versus decentralization, discuss mental models for financial bubbles, and examine human nature from the lens of different thinkers.

The Riff is sponsored by Shopify: https://shopify.com/momentofzen for a $1/month trial period.

---

The Riff is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. Learn more: https://turpentine.co

---

Check out Erik's new show Request for Startups featuring a rotating cast of founders and investors sharing their requests for startups they want to exist in the world, and also their stories of navigating the idea maze in different sectors so founders don’t have to reinvent the wheel anymore. The first episode is out now - we cover better dating apps, references as a service, and WeWork for productivity

---

We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.

---

Thanks to our sponsor: SHOPIFY

Shopify is the global commerce platform that helps you sell at every stage of your business. Shopify powers 10% of all e-commerce in the US. And Shopify’s the global force behind Allbirds, Rothy’s, and Brooklinen, and 1,000,000s of other entrepreneurs across 175 countries. From their all-in-one e-commerce platform, to their in-person POS system – wherever and whatever you’re selling, Shopify’s got you covered. With free Shopify Magic, sell more with less effort by whipping up captivating content that converts – from blog posts to product descriptions using AI. Sign up for $1/month trial period: https://shopify.com/momentofzen

---

LINKS:

Byrne's writing: https://thediff.co

---

X / TWITTER:

@eriktorenberg (Erik)

@byrnehobart (Byrne)

@turpentinemedia (Turpentine)

---

TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Intro

(01:11) Byrne's Approach to Understanding

(02:56) Productivity Growth

(06:38) Debate on Globalization

(16:30) Sponsor: Shopify

(18:12) Understanding the Impact of Geography, Demographics, and Energy

(27:25) State Capacity Libertarianism

(33:21) Predicting the Future of US-China Relationship

(34:37) Lessons from the East Asian Economic Miracles

(35:42) The Role of Corruption in Economic Growth

(36:32) Strategies for Subsidizing Exports

(38:05) The Impact of Anti-Globalization Movements

(38:30) The Trade Deficit Debate

(46:21) Charter Cities

(52:38) The Techlash

(01:07:38) The Future of Wall Street and Its Impact on Society

(01:17:53) The Power of the Dollar System

(01:18:55) Understanding Negative Interest Rates

(01:20:43) The Impact of Low Interest Rates on Infrastructure Development

(01:25:05) The Impact of Demographics on Long Term Bonds

(01:27:48) The Problem of Underfunded Pensions

(01:28:52) Understanding Financial Bubbles

(01:33:37) The Dynamics of Centralization and Decentralization

(01:50:43) The Future of Silicon Valley and California

(01:56:31) Disagreements with Notable Thinkers

This week, writer Byrne Hobart and investor Erik Torenberg discuss the failed acquisition of Figma by Adobe, a deep dive on antitrust, Byrne's take on higher education and viable alternatives, unions, and more. The Riff is sponsored by Shopify: https://shopify.com/momentofzen for a $1/month trial period.

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The Riff is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. Learn more: https://turpentine.co

---

Check out Erik's new show Request for Startups featuring a rotating cast of founders and investors sharing their requests for startups they want to exist in the world, and also their stories of navigating the idea maze in different sectors so founders don’t have to reinvent the wheel anymore. The first episode is out now - we cover better dating apps, references as a service, and WeWork for productivity

---

We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.

---

Thanks to our sponsor: SHOPIFY

Shopify is the global commerce platform that helps you sell at every stage of your business. Shopify powers 10% of all e-commerce in the US. And Shopify’s the global force behind Allbirds, Rothy’s, and Brooklinen, and 1,000,000s of other entrepreneurs across 175 countries. From their all-in-one e-commerce platform, to their in-person POS system – wherever and whatever you’re selling, Shopify’s got you covered. With free Shopify Magic, sell more with less effort by whipping up captivating content that converts – from blog posts to product descriptions using AI. Sign up for $1/month trial period: https://shopify.com/momentofzen

---

LINKS:

Byrne's writing: https://thediff.co

---

X / TWITTER:

@eriktorenberg (Erik)

@byrnehobart (Byrne)

@turpentinemedia (Turpentine)

---

TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Intro

(00:24) Figma and Adobe

(03:28) Antitrust Perspective on Figma and Adobe

(03:41) Understanding Antitrust in Tech

(07:49) Role of Big Tech Companies in Antitrust

(19:00) Sponsor: Shopify

(20:38) Higher Education: A Cartel?

(24:15) YC and Disruption in Higher Education

(31:07) Funding Higher Education

(32:50) Rethinking the Role of Traditional Institutions in Education

(33:26) The Potential of Separating Vocational Training and Liberal Arts

(33:47) Imagining a Different Approach to Post-High School Education

(34:32) The Unpredictability of Career Paths and Interests

(35:36) The Case for Subsidizing Knowledge Acquisition

(36:35) The Importance of Failing and Learning in Education

(37:51) Personal Experience and Reflections on College Education

(38:43) The Future of Higher Education for the Next Generation

(46:27) The Challenges of Traditional K-12 Education

(53:24) The Ideological Monopoly in Universities

(53:54) The Impact of Political Ideologies on Education

This week, writer Byrne Hobart and investor Erik Torenberg discuss new updatates from OpenAI, Byrne's macroeconomic predictions, the importance of software for Microsoft, and more. Moment of Zen is sponsored by Shopify: https://shopify.com/momentofzen for a $1/month trial period.

---

The Riff is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. Learn more: turpentine.co

---

Check out Erik's new show Request for Startups featuring a rotating cast of founders and investors sharing their requests for startups they want to exist in the world, and also their stories of navigating the idea maze in different sectors so founders don’t have to reinvent the wheel anymore. The first episode is out now - we cover better dating apps, references as a service, and WeWork for productivity

---

We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.

---

Thanks to our sponsor: SHOPIFY

Shopify is the global commerce platform that helps you sell at every stage of your business. Shopify powers 10% of all e-commerce in the US. And Shopify’s the global force behind Allbirds, Rothy’s, and Brooklinen, and 1,000,000s of other entrepreneurs across 175 countries. From their all-in-one e-commerce platform, to their in-person POS system – wherever and whatever you’re selling, Shopify’s got you covered. With free Shopify Magic, sell more with less effort by whipping up captivating content that converts – from blog posts to product descriptions using AI. Sign up for $1/month trial period: https://shopify.com/momentofzen.

---

LINKS:

Byrne's writing: https://thediff.co

---

RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Live Players With Samo Burja

Join host Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg as they analyze the mindsets of today’s most intriguing business leaders, investors, and innovators through the lens of their bold actions and contrarian worldviews. Think: Elon, Sam Altman, Peter Thiel, George Soros and more. You’ll come away with a deeper understanding of the development of technology, business, political power, culture and more. Listen and subscribe everywhere you get your podcasts: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers

---

X / TWITTER:

@eriktorenberg (Erik)

@byrnehobart (Byrne)

---

TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Intro

(00:20) New updates on OpenAI

(02:50) The continuum between overcoming natural inertia and a Ponzi scheme

(04:03) Whoever actually has negotiating leverage is in charge

(06:28) The uncertainty theory of conflict

(13:04) Lags in AI product release

(17:37) Sponsor - Shopify

(19:12) Crypto markets

(26:48) Byrne's macro predictions

(31:00) Deep dive on McDonald's loyalty program

(38:59) Byrne's perspective on the effect of minimum wage

(49:42) Donor activism at colleges

(58:29) Wrap

---

The Riff is a production from Turpentine

Producer: Sam Kaufman

Editor: Seven Morris

For guest or sponsorship inquiries please contact [email protected]

This week, writer Byrne Hobart and investor Erik Torenberg discuss the lessons to be learned from the life of the late Charlie Munger. They explore what made Munger a great investor, how he was different from Warren Buffett, and where to find the next Munger today.

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The Riff is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. Learn more: turpentine.co

---

Check out Erik's new show Request for Startups featuring a rotating cast of founders and investors sharing their requests for startups they want to exist in the world, and also their stories of navigating the idea maze in different sectors so founders don’t have to reinvent the wheel anymore. The first episode is out now - we cover better dating apps, references as a service, and WeWork for productivity

---

We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.

---

Thanks to our sponsor: SECUREFRAME

Secureframe: the only compliance automation platform with AI capabilities that help customers speed up cloud remediation and security questionnaires. Get 20% off your first year of Secureframe by mentioning "The Riff" during your free demo: https://secureframe.com/riff

---

LINKS:

Byrne's writing: https://thediff.co

---

RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Live Players With Samo Burja

Join host Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg as they analyze the mindsets of today’s most intriguing business leaders, investors, and innovators through the lens of their bold actions and contrarian worldviews. Think: Elon, Sam Altman, Peter Thiel, George Soros and more. You’ll come away with a deeper understanding of the development of technology, business, political power, culture and more. Listen and subscribe everywhere you get your podcasts: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers

---

X / TWITTER:

@eriktorenberg

@byrnehobart

---

TIMESTIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Intro

(01:01) Byrne's reflections on businessman, investor, and philanthropis Charlie Munger

(09:33) On countersignaling

(15:53) Does Berkshire Hathaway bet against the future?

(22:57) What would Munger and Buffett be doing if they were starting their careers today?

(28:26) Are there certain market periods where Buffet and Munger would have done worse?

(32:38) Sponsor - Secureframe

(33:33) Buffett and Soros vs modern quants

(42:26) The half life of investing strategies

(53:50) AI's impact on social media

(1:02:37) Wrap

---

The Riff is a production from Turpentine

Producer: Sam Kaufman

Editor: Seven Morris

For guest or sponsorship inquiries please contact [email protected]

In our 5th episode of The Riff, writer Byrne Hobart and investor Erik Torenberg are joined by Thomas Li, the CEO of Daloopa for a deep dive into the world of hedge funds. They discuss what venture capitalists may not know about hedge funds, what most people get wrong, crowding, and risk management. The conversation also touches on the role of the yield curve in investment strategies and the competition between everyday investors and hedge funds.

Thomas Li is the CEO of Daloopa, where they provide enterprise grade financial models and model automation to hedge funds, asset management and investment banking.

Need Soc 2 compliance? Get 20% off your first year of Secureframe by mentioning "The Riff" during your free demo: https://secureframe.com/riff

---

Check out Erik's new show Request for Startups featuring a rotating cast of founders and investors sharing their requests for startups they want to exist in the world, and also their stories of navigating the idea maze in different sectors so founders don’t have to reinvent the wheel anymore. The first episode is out now - we cover better dating apps, references as a service, and WeWork for productivity

---

We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.

---

The Riff is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. Learn more: turpentine.co

--

Thanks to our sponsor: SECUREFRAME

Secureframe: the only compliance automation platform with AI capabilities that help customers speed up cloud remediation and security questionnaires. Get 20% off your first year of Secureframe by mentioning "The Riff" during your free demo: https://secureframe.com/riff

---

LINKS:

Byrne's writing: https://thediff.co

---

RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Live Players With Samo Burja

Join host Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg as they analyze the mindsets of today’s most intriguing business leaders, investors, and innovators through the lens of their bold actions and contrarian worldviews. Think: Elon, Sam Altman, Peter Thiel, George Soros and more. You’ll come away with a deeper understanding of the development of technology, business, political power, culture and more. LIsten and subscribe everywhere you get your podcasts: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers

---

X / TWITTER:

@eriktorenberg

@byrnehobart

@Daloopa1 (Daloopa)

---

TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Intro

(01:36) Brief overview of hedge funds

(04:54) History and landscape of hedge funds

(13:08) Top firms and their strategies in the hedge fund world

(17:22) Sponsor - SecureFrame

(18:19) Hedge funds: Overview of the macro style

(20:58) Distressed funds and risk parity

(30:23) What they don't want to tell VCs about yield curves and why

(32:18) When you're betting on a company, you're actually betting on two things - fundamental performance of the business + discount rate to discount the future cash flows of the business

(34:45) Investing in early stage companies and trading interest rate futures

(41:52) Are everyday investors competing with hedge funds in any meaningful sets?

(50:20) What is the business of a hedge fund fundamentally?

(58:52) How true is the peak pot thesis?

(1:06:57) Unique things about working at a hedge fund

(1:15:30) Wrap

In our 4th episode of The Riff, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss the complex interplay of technology, economic growth, demographics and investment decisions and the socio-technological implications of dating apps on society. They also debate the impact of political leaders' policies on capital markets, focusing specifically on the comparison of Xi Jinping's and Trump's stances and their tangible effects. Need Soc 2 compliance? Get 20% off your first year of Secureframe by mentioning "The Riff" during your free demo: https://secureframe.com/riff

---

Check out Erik's new show Request for Startups featuring a rotating cast of founders and investors sharing their requests for startups they want to exist in the world, and also their stories of navigating the idea maze in different sectors so founders don’t have to reinvent the wheel anymore. The first episode is out now - we cover better dating apps, references as a service, and WeWork for productivity

---

We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.

---

The Riff is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. Learn more: turpentine.co

---

RECOMMENDED PODCAST: LIVE PLAYERS

Join host Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg as they analyze the mindsets of today’s most intriguing business leaders, investors, and innovators through the lens of their bold actions and contrarian worldviews. You’ll come away with a deeper understanding of the development of technology, business, political power, culture and more. LIsten and subscribe everywhere you get your podcasts: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers.

---

Thanks to our sponsor: SECUREFRAME

Secureframe: the only compliance automation platform with AI capabilities that help customers speed up cloud remediation and security questionnaires. Get 20% off your first year of Secureframe by mentioning "The Riff" during your free demo: https://secureframe.com/riff

---

LINKS:

Byrne's writing: https://thediff.co

---

X / TWITTER:

@eriktorenberg

@byrnehobart

---

TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Episode Preview 

(00:28) The Capital Gains edition

(04:57) The Role of Demographics in Investment

(05:32) The Influence of Macro Factors

(06:43) The Impact of Globalization

(13:40) The Effect of Aging Society on Economy

(17:50) The Influence of Politics on Economy

(18:00) Sponsor: Secureframe

(23:45) Discussing the Upcoming Election

(27:12) The Impact of Immigration Policies

(31:49) The Importance of Accounting in Government

(33:41) The Cold War and Its Impact on Global Economics

(35:15) The Role of Institutions in Economic Outcomes

(35:48) The Influence of Geography on Economic Success

(36:30) The Impact of Ideology on Economic Growth

(37:10) The Role of Talent and Resources in Economic Success

(41:04) The Future of China in the Global Economy

(47:16) The Influence of Technology on Economic Trends

(47:40) The Impact of Demographics on Economic Growth

(48:04) The Role of AI in the Future Economy

(01:01:07) The Impact of Dating Markets on Fertility Rates

(01:03:22) The Future of Dating Sites and Social Norms

In our third episode of The Riff, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss the evolving story of Sam Altman’s ousting at OpenAI and new home at Microsoft, what OpenAI's next pivot could look like, the new competitive landscape for the big AI players, and Effective Altruism’s role in this drama.

--

We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.

--

RECOMMENDED PODCAST: LIVE PLAYERS

Join host Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg as they analyze the mindsets of today’s most intriguing business leaders, investors, and innovators through the lens of their bold actions and contrarian worldviews. You’ll come away with a deeper understanding of the development of technology, business, political power, culture and more. Listen and subscribe everywhere you get your podcasts: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers.

--

The Riff is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. Learn more: turpentine.co

--

LINKS:

Byrne's writing: https://thediff.co

--

X / TWITTER:

@eriktorenberg

@byrnehobart

--

TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Episode Preview

(00:30) Non obvious thoughts about governance and legal structures

(03:30) Could the board have found out something about Sam?

(04:40) Tech’s online coordination and choosing sides

(06:00) Why haven’t the OpenAI board shared their reasoning?

(12:00) Are they going to bring Sam back?

(15:00) What should OpenAI’s pivot be?

(17:15) Sponsor: Secureframe

(18:20) Analyzing Microsoft's moves and the sweetheart deal

(21:40) Satya's succession plans

(24:45) OpenAI's unique governance structure

(27:50) Why Byrne is long Microsoft

(35:40) What explains Microsoft's turnaround?

(37:55) Meta and Google

(44:00) Which of these companies Byrne would short: Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook, Microsoft

(46:00) Was this a coup from the Effective Altruism movement?

In our second episode of The Riff, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss the role and influence of companies like OpenAI, AI investment opportunities, the whitespace in the future of social media models, and turning cloud networks into real communities.

The Riff is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. Learn more: turpentine.co

-

We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.

RECOMMENDED PODCAST: LIVE PLAYERS

Join host Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg as they analyze the mindsets of today’s most intriguing business leaders, investors, and innovators through the lens of their bold actions and contrarian worldviews. You’ll come away with a deeper understanding of the development of technology, business, political power, culture and more. LIsten and subscribe everywhere you get your podcasts: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers.

Thanks to our sponsor: Secureframe

Secureframe: the only compliance automation platform with AI capabilities that help customers speed up cloud remediation and security questionnaires. Get 20% off your first year of Secureframe by mentioning "The Riff" during your free demo: https://secureframe.com/offer/riff

--

LINKS:

Byrne's writing: https://thediff.co

--

X / TWITTER:

@eriktorenberg

@byrnehobart

--

TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Intro

(00:21) Byrne’s reaction to OpenAI’s new developments

(04:30) Where exactly will AI be incorporated?

(08:58) Byrne's thoughts on opportunities in AI and where he place his bets on?

(15:48) Sponsor: Secureframe

(16:50) On reputation data sets

(18:58) If Byrne was in between things, what is the space that's currently underrated?

(29:36) Elon and Twitter: On reforming institutions

(35:07) Are we going to have a paradigm shift on social?

(40:05) Media and monetization: what is the best monetization to capture value?

(49:21) Byrne's thoughts on the best vehicle for investing

(56:42) Wrap

In our first episode of The Riff, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss Byrne's writing for his newsletter The DIff, his biggest influences, and the fall of Sam Bankman-Fried.

The Riff is part of the Turpentine podcast network. Learn more: turpentine.co

--

We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.

--

RECOMMENDED PODCAST: LIVE PLAYERS

Join host Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg as they analyze the mindsets of today’s most intriguing business leaders, investors, and innovators through the lens of their bold actions and contrarian worldviews. You’ll come away with a deeper understanding of the development of technology, business, political power, culture and more. LIsten and subscribe everywhere you get your podcasts: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers.

Thanks to our sponsor: Secureframe

Secureframe: the only compliance automation platform with AI capabilities that help customers speed up cloud remediation and security questionnaires. Get 20% off your first year of Secureframe by mentioning "The Riff" during your free demo: https://secureframe.com/riff 

--

LINKS:

Byrne's writing: https://thediff.co

--

X / TWITTER:

@eriktorenberg

@byrnehobart

--

TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Intro

(00:05) Byrne's moonshot and the intersection of finance and technology

(04:28) What Bryne thinks is his best piece ever written in 2020 and before

(11:29) Byrne's take on fake jobs in the economy

(15:44) Which historical figure is Byrne seeking to play as?

(20:41) Does Byrne have this big idea he keeps coming back to?

(27:37) Byrne's analysis on Michael Lewis

(30:12) On Michael Lewis' book "Going Infinite" and the fall of FTX

(45:27) Blogging and the innermost thoughts of prominent people

(47:39) Byrne's analysis on crypto