RBC's Markets in Motion

The Sentiment Signals We're Watching


Listen Later

This week in the podcast we tackle the topic of investor sentiment, which has been back in focus given the S&P 500’s recent decline. The big things you need to know: First, the 13.9% drawdown in place at Friday’s close is near the range of prior growth scares, but our growth scare framework points to possible downside in the S&P 500 to 3,850 even with no recession if the Friday low doesn’t hold. Second, net bullishness on the AAII retail investor survey broke to a new post-Financial Crisis low last week, a contrarian buy signal for stocks on a 12-month forward basis. Third, positioning among asset managers in US equity futures hasn’t been quite as extreme, which suggests that institutional investor sentiment still needs to catch down to retail investors. Fourth, other widely watched fear gauges, the VIX and equity put/call ratio have moved up, another longer-term contrarian buy signal for stocks, but don’t look extreme yet. Overall, we think the data continues to paint a picture of extreme fear and a contrarian opportunity for longer-term investors, even though there is scope for further movement/more downside in the very near term on some gauges.

...more
View all episodesView all episodes
Download on the App Store

RBC's Markets in MotionBy RBC Capital Markets

  • 4.8
  • 4.8
  • 4.8
  • 4.8
  • 4.8

4.8

38 ratings


More shows like RBC's Markets in Motion

View all
Bloomberg Surveillance by Bloomberg

Bloomberg Surveillance

1,199 Listeners

Notes on the Week Ahead by Dr. David Kelly

Notes on the Week Ahead

189 Listeners

Insights Now by Dr. David Kelly and Gabriela Santos, J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Insights Now

94 Listeners

Exchanges by Goldman Sachs

Exchanges

991 Listeners

The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing by The Idea Farm

The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing

938 Listeners

UBS On-Air: Market Moves by Client Strategy Office

UBS On-Air: Market Moves

181 Listeners

Making Sense by J.P. Morgan

Making Sense

58 Listeners

The Compound and Friends by The Compound

The Compound and Friends

2,049 Listeners

Thoughts on the Market by Morgan Stanley

Thoughts on the Market

1,267 Listeners

RenMac by Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

RenMac

73 Listeners

The Memo by Howard Marks by Oaktree Capital Management

The Memo by Howard Marks

415 Listeners

Barron's Live by Barron's Live

Barron's Live

195 Listeners

RiskReversal Pod by RiskReversal Media

RiskReversal Pod

795 Listeners

Pathfinders in Biopharma by RBC Capital Markets

Pathfinders in Biopharma

12 Listeners

Industries in Motion by RBC Capital Markets

Industries in Motion

10 Listeners

Powering Sustainable Ideas by RBC Capital Markets

Powering Sustainable Ideas

0 Listeners

Closing Bell by CNBC

Closing Bell

161 Listeners

Macro Minutes by RBC Capital Markets

Macro Minutes

3 Listeners

Strategic Alternatives by RBC Capital Markets

Strategic Alternatives

18 Listeners

The Markets by Goldman Sachs

The Markets

70 Listeners