January 01, 2025

The Sentry Picks and Predictions

29 minutes

Will Doctor gives you the sharpest card for The Sentry! -Top 6 odds favorites -1 matchup -1 t10, 1t20 -2 outrights -Sleeper -FRL, 2 lineups, scoring, best bet

🏌️‍♂️ Key Quotes & Analysis by Timestamps

Introduction to the Event (0:06 - 0:44)

Will Doctor introduces the 2025 PGA Tour season, expressing excitement for the first of 36 regular season events. He promises sharp predictions and analysis for the Sentry, setting the tone for an in-depth preview.

Field and Schedule Analysis (0:44 - 26:35)

Doctor discusses the tournament schedule for 2025, highlighting its structure with 18 full-field events, 8 signature events, and 4 majors. The Sentry leads the year, followed by the Sony Open in Honolulu, a deeply emotional tournament following Grayson Murray's passing.

Analysis:

The smaller field size of 60 players for the Sentry contrasts with the 144-player field at the Sony, a "proper field size." Doctor criticizes the PGA Tour's 2026 changes, which include reducing PGA Tour cards and eliminating Monday qualifiers, calling it unfair to the 2,000 capable golfers globally.

Field Highlights:

37 of the top 50 golfers are present.

Notable absentee: Scottie Scheffler (hand injury).

Key players: Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, and Victor Hovland.

Course Breakdown (Plantation Course, Kapalua)

Celebrating its 27th year hosting the Sentry, the course features dramatic elevation changes, scenic par 5s, and short par 4s under 400 yards, creating a mix of challenges.

Key Insight: The course design ensures low scores, with a prediction of -24 winning the tournament.

Player Predictions & Odds

Xander Schauffele (7-1): Strong ball-striking, but struggles on Kapalua's greens, leading Doctor to avoid betting on him.

Justin Thomas (11-1): Despite recent putting woes, Thomas' exceptional ball-striking makes him a top contender. Doctor predicts Thomas will finish in the top 10 and recommends bets at 11-1 (outright win) and +110 (top 10 finish).

Collin Morikawa (12-1): While inconsistent recently, Morikawa's strong history at Kapalua and excellent ball-striking earn him a matchup bet against Hideki Matsuyama (-139).

Sung Jae Im (18-1): Near wins at Kapalua in prior years, but Doctor avoids betting on him due to unfavorable odds and matchups.

Patrick Cantlay (18-1): Struggles in low-scoring contests requiring elite putting. Doctor is "out" on Cantlay this week.

Ludvig Åberg (18-1): Promising young player but hampered by putting inconsistencies, leading Doctor to skip betting on him.

Matchups & Picks to Place

Matchups: Collin Morikawa over Hideki Matsuyama (-139).

Top 20 Picks:

Justin Thomas (+110).

Akshay Bhatia (+110): Emerging star with two recent top-5 finishes. Strong performances at coastal courses support his inclusion.

Outright Winners & Sleeper Picks

Justin Thomas (11-1): A proven winner at Kapalua despite putting struggles.

Max Graesserman (45-1): Consistent fall performances make him a dark horse.

Sleeper Pick: Jonathan Vegas to top 20 (3-1). Known for his driving, he thrives at Kapalua's demanding layout.

First-Round Leader

Justin Thomas (16-1): Strong opening round history makes him a compelling bet.

Fantasy Lineups

DraftKings: Balanced selections include Justin Thomas, Sung Jae Im, Akshay Bhatia, Max Graesserman, Nick Dunlop, and Jonathan Vegas.

PGA Tour Fantasy: Core players are Justin Thomas, Akshay Bhatia, Sung Jae Im, and Max Graesserman, with Vegas and Dunlop as substitutes.

Best Bet

Max Graesserman to top 10 (+350) is highlighted as a strong value pick.

Conclusion & Scoring Prediction

Doctor predicts winning scores around -24, with Justin Thomas or Max Graesserman emerging victorious.

For more on the world of golf, follow Doc on X @drmedia59

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