The Transfer Flow Podcast

On this Episode, Ted and Patrick do a deep dive on Brentford's fast starts to game and how teams are undervaluing set pieces. They then move to discussion on playing out of the back, which has caused issues for many teams to start the season. Next, they move to Bayern Munich's recent games and their high defensive line looking fragile. To end, the move to quick hits on Real Madrid's injury situation and their need to spend big in the winter window, Micky van de Ven struggle in Spurs' loss to to Brighton, and Cole Palmer during Chelsea's 1-1 draw with Forest. Enjoy!

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Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:18 - Brentford have solved Football

01:54 - Set Pieces and Ted's history with them and Brentford

06:33 - Brentford has applied this to kickoffs

08:28 - Is it sustainable?

09:22 - Zdeněk Zeman

10:22 - Team's undervaluing set pieces

13:21 - The biggest differences between a corner and a long-throw in

16:17 - How the fast starts have helped Brentford

19:54 - Principles to watch on set pieces

22:49 - Football being influenced by other sports

25:33 - Short goal kick equilibrium

26:16 - Daryl Morey's thoughts on short Goal kicks

28:27 - Forcing other teams to adapt to your style

28:51 - The end of short goal kicks?

33:09 - Teams that adapt faster will benefit

33:17 - Bayern's recent struggles

35:13 - Omar Marmoush's good form

36:24 - Bayern's high line is vulnerable

39:03 - Pep's ability to kill off games

40:39 - Will Kompany be able to learn?

43:04 - Real Madrid's injuries and the Winter window

43:49 - Madrid are missing Kroos

44:15 - Petar Sucic as a Kimmich-like

45:35 - van de Ven and Spurs vs Brighton

47:07 - Mitoma's = Bukayo Saka?

48:45 - The Welbeck winner and 2 amazing assists from the weekend

49:15 - Chelsea vs Forest and Cole Palmer

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Ted Knutson, former professional gambler, explains his Premier League Matchday 7 picks. Subscribe for more!

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:54 Asian Handicap betting explained

4:23 Newsletter

5:39 Crystal Palace v Liverpool

6:42 Leicester City v Bournemouth

7:57 Arsenal v Southampton

9:11 Brentford v Wolves

10:07 West Ham v Ipswich

12:24 Man City v Fulham

14:15 Everton v Newcastle

15:48 Chelsea v Nottingham Forest

17:22 Aston Villa v Man United

19:30 Brighton v Spurs

21:25 Outro

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Patrick and Ravi discuss Arsenal's win over PSG, Dortmund's demolition of Celtic, and Barcelona's loss to Osasuna. They further analyse Dortmund's managerial situation, Barca's incredible youth integration, and Arsenal's defensive tendencies. Enjoy!

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Timestamps

00:00 Episode Overview

00:23 Intro

2:35 Arsenal v PSG Review

3:08 Lineup Reaction

6:07 Tactical Breakdown

8:35 Absence of Dembele

9:14 PSG creating identity

10:27 Arsenal’s dominant defence

13:15 Are Arsenal too defensive?

17:10 Dortmund v Celtic Review

22:51 Dortmund under Sahin

26:31 Will Dortmund sack Sahin?

28:30 Barcelona’s loss to Osasuna

30:08 How to properly rotate your squad

38:56 Champions League format thoughts

40:00 La Masia player integration

46:58 Are some positions easier to break into?

54:25 Outro

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Patrick and Ted discuss the best way for Manchester United to move on from Erik Ten Hag and debate whether Cole Palmer is currently the best player in the Premier League. They also analyse the Madrid Derby and do a deep dive on Bayern Munich under new manager Vincent Kompany. Enjoy!

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Timestamps:

00:00 Episode Overview

00:36 Intro

1:46 Bayern vs Leverkusen review

4:30 Bayern going under the radar

6:55 Match breakdown

9:47 Kompany’s impact

11:30 The Pep Guardiola Effect

13:52 Man United vs Spurs Review

18:58 United’s terrible midfield

19:32 Spurs looking dangerous

19:54 Ten Hag and Man United’s summer recruitment

23:56 Man United’s new manager hunt

40:59 Chelsea’s start to the season

43:34 How not to play out from the back

44:43 Nicolas Jackson’s hot start

45:00 Is Cole Palmer the best player in the League?

51:00 James Justin golazo

51:30 Madrid Derby Review

56:17 Outro

57:42 Variance Betting Subscription update

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Patrick and Ravi discuss how Man City can cope without Rodri, potential replacements, and a La Liga Roundup. They analyse Barcelona's strong start to the season, Real Madrid's start studded squad, Atletico Madrid's solid defence, and ownership issues in the league. Enjoy!

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Timestamps:

00:00 Episode overview

00:37 Intro

1:53 Barcelona’s surprising form

2:30 Ter Stegan’s injury & replacements

9:09 Can Barcelona hold off Real Madrid?

13:16 Real Madrid’s recent form

15:44 Lacking balance in midfield

17:42 Madrid’s stacked attack

20:50 Concerns about defence

22:40 Atletico Madrid’s Strengths & Weaknesses

26:25 Analysing Atleti’s solid defence

29:13 Valencia’s struggles

31:40 Sevilla’s ownership issues

32:56 Valencia under Peter Lim

37:22 Rodri ACL injury

41:40 Impact on Man City

43:15 How can City cope?

47:10 What solution will Pep come up wIth?

50:18 Potential Rodri replacements

1:00:45 Outro

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Patrick and Ted discuss how Pep Guardiola didn't take advantage of Arsenal going down to 10 men, Danny Welbeck's rejuvenation, and Luis Diaz's improvement. They also recap all the other action from this weekend's Premier League games, including West Ham's horrible defence, and a deep dive into Arsenal's set-pieces. Enjoy!

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00:00 Episode Overview

00:30 Intro

1:47 Crystal Palace v Manchester United Review

4:24 Thoughts on Zirkzee

6:33 United’s Improved Defence

7:37 Man City vs Arsenal Review

9:17 Calafiori Golazo

10:51 Gabriel Goal & Arsenal Set Pieces

15:40 Second Half Analysis

18:03 Arsenal Defence

21:38 West Ham v Chelsea Review

22:32 Thoughts on Lopetegui

24:38 West Ham Defensive Issues

27:44 Fulham v Newcastle Review

32:45 Liverpool v Bournemouth

36:00 Luis Diaz Improvement

37:30 Brighton v Nottingham

38:25 Goals Analysis

40:28 Danny Welbeck Rejuvenation 

41:40 Refereeing In Premier League

43:28 Brighton Being A Young Arsenal

44:30 Weekend Recap

46:30 Outro

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Ted Knutson, former professional gambler, explains his Premier League Matchday 5 picks and why he is betting AGAINST Liverpool. Subscribe for more!

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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Introduction

00:45 Last Week Recap

1:12 TheTransferFlow & VarianceBetting

2:13 Closing Line Value

6:11 Why Does It Matter?

7:25 West Ham v Chelsea 

9:17 Aston Villa v Wolves

10:41 Fulham v Newcastle

11:54 Leicester v Everton

13:42 Southampton v Ipswich

15:31 Liverpool v Bournemouth

17:59 Spurs v Brentford

19:31 Crystal Palace v Manchester United

21:37 Brighton v Nottingham Forest

22:37 Manchester City v Arsenal

24:45 Championship Betting

25:15 Conclusion

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Ted and Ravi discuss Manchester City and Inter Milan's chances of winning the Champions League, changes to Erling Haaland's role, Barcelona's strong start and their expectations for the season. They then answer some listener questions which include discussions on player stocks, what to do when teams begin to figure you out, and a deep dive into the use of data to overturn some traditional football opinions.

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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Episode Overview

00:33 Introduction

2:38 Man City VS Inter Milan

3:20 Inter in the UCL

6:45 Man City’s UCL Squad

7:45 Man City’s New Style Of Play

12:50 New UCL Format

18:32 Player Fatigue

20:42 Barcelona As Contendors

22:10 Dani Olmo & Barca Injuries

23:35 Hansi Flick’s Bareclona

25:35 Emergence of Youngsters

27:17 Barcelona Expectations

29:05 Biggest Changes Under Flick

32:42 Barca’s UCL Schedule

33:08 Most Entertaining Team

33:42 Hansi Flick vs Xavi

36:25 Players Stocks

39:22 Stocks To Buy

40:14 Bournemouth Under Iraola

40:47 Teams Figuring You Out

43:36 Two Halves of a Season

46:30 Kieran McKenna

47:15 Using Data To Overturn Traditional Opinions

58:45 In Swinging Corners vs Out Swinging Corners

1:03:16 Outro

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Patrick and Ted start the episode by discussing the North London Derby and the weakness that Spurs continue to show in their midfield. Next, they move to Liverpool, who seemed to have fixed there defense, but were unable to get anything going offensively. After touching on City vs Brighton and United vs Southampton, they move to Newcastle's Internal power struggle, as Eddie Howe and Paul Mitchell compete for power. Finally, they end the episode with their thoughts on Chelsea vs Bournemouth (hint: not good) and West Ham vs Fulham. Enjoy!

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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 - Intro

03:28 - Arsenal vs. Spurs

04:47 - The midfield battle

06:30 - Spurs crosses were not effective

07:38 - How teams can get value from crosses

09:23 - Watching the ball vs. the man

10:11 - Spurs' biggest weakness

10:41 - The type of midfielder Spurs needed

11:52 - More opportunities for mistakes

13:40 - The evolution of pressing

14:33 - Alexis Sanchez' pressing ability

15:32 - Arsenal's plan this game

18:39 - The launch of Variance Betting

19:38 - Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest

19:53 - High handicaps coming off international break

20:43 - The signs of value of Nottingham Forest

22:22 - Liverpool's defense continues to shine

23:14 - Liverpool's offensive struggles

25:05 - Ryan Gravenberch in a deeper role

27:16 - Brentford vs. City

28:11 - Thomas Frank as Manager

31:12 - Brentford's possession #'s against City

31:28 - City's lack of pressing

32:05 - The problems Pep is facing

34:20 - Manchester United vs Southampton

35:37 - United's set piece goal

36:40 - Tyler Dibling

37:24 - Is Russell Martin's job safe?

40:13 - Newcastle's internal conflict

42:21 - Paul Mitchell vs Eddie Howe

44:24 - Newcastle are doing well in the table

44:46 - How do Newcastle mend things?

46:06 - Chelsea vs Bournemouth

47:17 - Subbing in Neto for Jadon Sancho

48:09 - Bad signs for long-term success

48:55 - Chelsea need a structured attack

50:53 - West Ham vs Fulham

51:37 - Danny Ings

53:21 - Brighton vs Ipswich

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Ted Knutson, former professional gambler, explains his best betting practices and discusses his Premier League Matchday 4 picks. Subscribe for more!

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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Introduction

1:44 Who is Ted Knutson?

2:20 Working With Pinnacle.com Products

3:26 Working at Brentford/Midtjylland & SmartOdds

4:05 Founding StatsBomb

4:25 Present Day — TheTransferFlow.com

4:58 Variance Betting Principles

5:21 Discount Bookies > Bonuses

8:20 Price Shop

10:37 Working with Models & Knowledge

12:35 Why Early Season is Tricky

13:54 Your Bets are your own

14:47 Market Implied (MI) Model

16:18 Be careful about Promoted Teams

17:18 Expected Goals (xG) Model

18:07 Caveats

21:06 Plugs

20:23 Recreational Sports Betting

22:32 Brighton v Ipswich Bet

23:52 Southampton v Man United Bet

25:11 Crystal Palace v Leicester Bet

26:02 Fulham v West Ham No Bet

26:25 Liverpool v Nottingham Forest Bet

27:25 Man City v Brentford No Bet

28:35 Aston Villa v Everton No Bet

29:46 Bournemouth v Chelsea Bet

31:20 Spurs v Arsenal Bet

32:39 Wolves v Newcastle No Bet

33:31 Recap 

33:54 Outro

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