The Transfer Flow Podcast

In this episode, Patrick and Ted break down the games from this past weekend. They start at the top of the table, with Arsenal and Manchester City faltering, leaving Liverpool 2 points in the lead. They discuss whether Liverpool can maintain their lead with a tough upcoming schedule, if City can rebound despite their injuries, and whether Arsenal are already out of the title race. Next, they talk about Manchester United's lucky 1-1 draw with Chelsea and how they managed to escape two possible red cards. Finally, they finish with Tottenham's 4-1 victory over Aston Villa and the difficulty of separating the top 13 teams in the Premier League. Enjoy!

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Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro

00:55 - Arsenal,City, and Liverpool over the weekend

01:23 - How Brighton setup against Liverpool

02:34 - How stressful the Premier League is

03:15 - Liverpool weathered the storm then attacked

04:37 - How long Liverpool’s squad has been in rotation

05:43 - Tough schedule ahead for Liverpool

06:21 - Are liverpool favorites or should it still be city?

07:41 - City have a ton of injuries and an old squad

10:16 - Arsenal’ lack of attacking threat vs. Newcastle

11:47 - A bad game for Arsenal and Arteta

13:00 - Are managers too conservative with substitutions

14:07 - Edu Gaspar leaving Arsenal

16:39 - What is the best approach to substitutions?

20:25 - Is Arteta taking more power at Arsenal?

22:31 - Are Arsenal out of the title race?

24:26 - Phil Foden’s added threat for City

26:16 - Manchester United vs. Chelsea

26:40 - United were lucky to not get red cards (Ugarte/Martinez)

30:00 - Defensive breakdowns leading to chances + Why is Robert Sanchez in goal

31:24 - The game from a United Perspective

32:54 - The game from a Chelsea Perspective + Cole Palmer

34:05 - Concern for Chelsea’s defense?

36:10 - Tottenham vs. Aston Villa

37:21 - How managers give their players breaks during the season

38:30 - Villa were unable to contain the match

39:16 - Spurs are GOOD?

39:24 - Hard to separate teams the top 7 and top 13 teams in the table

42:26 - What makes every week exciting in the Premier League

44:00 - Serie A is also BANANAS

#premierleague #liverpool #manchesterunited #manchestercity #manutd #arsenal #tottenham #chelsea #astonvilla #arteta #colepalmer #philfoden

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Ted Knutson shares his insights for EVERY EPL Matchday 10 game and discusses why you MUST wait for the lineups before betting certain games.

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Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:05 - Liverpool vs. Brighton

01:48 - Why you must check the lineup before betting this match

02:22 - Ipswich vs. Leicester City

02:41 - Forest vs. West Ham

03:48 - Bournemouth vs. Man City

04:44 - Newcastle vs. Arsenal

06:13 - Southampton vs. Everton

06:36 - Wolves vs. Crystal Palace

07:03 - Tottenham vs. Aston Villa

09:29 - Manchester United vs. Chelsea

11:31 - Fulham vs. Brentford

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On this episode, Ted and Ravi answer frequently asked questions about getting started in sports analytics using their extensive knowledge and experience in the industry. They get into how to look for a job, the skills you need, and what to expect once you land a job. If you have more questions you want answered, leave them in the comments down below!

Details for Ravi's conference in Houston:

https://americansoccerinsights.com/

Data Contest/Call for Proposals:

https://americansoccerinsights.com/call-for-proposals

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Timestamps:

00:00:00 - Intro

00:01:01 - How do I get started?

00:04:46 - What skills do I need?

00:21:25 - Where to look for football jobs?

00:23:17 - Apart from football clubs, where are some other places I can find data jobs in football?

00:26:25 - I want to go into football, but I don't have the data skills - where can I learn them fast?

00:35:24 - How can I set myself apart from the crowd?

00:46:00 - The pay seems very low - what can I do about it?

00:51:10 - What's it look to work for these teams?

01:04:52 - What are your biggest takeaways from working in sports?

#dataanalytics #analytics #data #football #soccer #sports #sportsanalytics #premierleague #mls #stats

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On this episode, Ted and Patrick discuss Manchester United firing manager Erik ten Hag. They run down why he had to be fired, Ruud van Nistelrooy as interim manager, and potential names for the job. Then, Ravi joins Patrick to discuss Barcelona's 4-0 victory over Real Madrid over the weekend. They talk about Barcelona's high line causing problems for Madrid, Madrid lacking a holding striker, and if Barcelona can maintain this form for the rest of the season. Enjoy!

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Timestamps:

00:00:00 - Intro

00:00:47 - United sack Erik ten Hag

00:01:31 - Ruud van Nistelrooy interim manager

00:01:45 - Manchester United’s recent form

00:04:14 - Trends for United

00:04:39 - Could they be better with a better coach?

00:05:39 - What a good and bad manager change process looks like

00:07:24 - The U Curve of coaches

00:10:18 - Could ten Hag’s hurt United?

00:10:56 - Dan Ashworth’s limited early influence

00:11:53 - Who should United hire?

00:12:39 - Pochettino and Tuchel already have jobs

00:13:28 - Could van Nistelrooy stay on?

00:14:29 - Gareth Southgate

00:15:27 - Ruben Amorim

00:15:54 - How do budgets play into the new hire decision?

00:17:51 - Xavi as next United manager?

00:20:05 - Luis Enrique

00:21:12 - Graham Potter

00:23:09 - Eddie Howe

00:24:24 - Mourinho was the most pragmatic of recent United coaches

00:25:05 - Michael Carrick

00:28:44 - Adi Hutter

00:30:57 - Bournemouth manager Andoni Iraola?

00:31:47 - Thomas Frank

00:34:08 - The ability of a manager to get player buy-in

00:35:41 - Roger Schmidt and his pressing style

00:37:44 - Julian Nagelsmann

00:39:44 - Should United settle for the least costly option?

00:40:53 - The stress of managing/working for a team

00:41:38 - Ravi joins to talk El Clasico

00:42:46 - The game was closer than the score and Barca’s impressive workload

00:44:33 - Madrid’s gameplan was to be direct

00:45:19 - Was Fermin Lopez the correct choice?

00:46:06 - The technical ability on display

00:46:46 - Substitutions settled the game for Barca

00:47:55 - Casado’s line-breaking pass for Goal #1

00:48:52 - The high line was very impressive

00:50:11 - Lucas Vazquez struggled

00:53:14 - Who should be blamed for Madrid?

00:54:46 - Madrid struggle with a pivot and where was Endrick?

00:56:52 - Bellingham’s lack of forward threat

00:58:52 - Can Barcelona sustain this performance?

01:02:06 - Mbappe moving to the right side?

#manchesterunited #realmadrid #barcelona #manutd #eriktenhag #elclassico #football #soccer #podcast

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On this episode, Ted shares his picks for EPL matchday 9. He starts by explaining why he flat bets and when to use accumulators. He gives insights on the matches he's betting on, including Arsenal vs. Liverpool, and explains why he's staying away from certain matchups (both City and United). Enjoy!

More information on fractional Kelly betting: https://www.pinnacle.com/betting-resources/en/betting-strategy/revisiting-the-kelly-criterion-part-2-fractional-kelly/gbd27z9nljvgflgg

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Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:18 - Why do you bet flat amounts?

03:44 - Why don't you bet accumulators?

06:23 - Leicester City vs. Forest

07:16 - Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth

08:03 - Brentford vs. Ipswich

09:02 - Manchester City vs. Southampton

09:51 - Brighton vs. Wolves

11:33 - Everton vs. Fulham

13:10 - Chelsea vs. Newcastle

14:15 - Crystal Palace vs. Tottenham

15:33 - West Ham vs. Manchester United

17:02 - Arsenal vs. Liverpool

#premierleague #epl #betting #liverpool #arsenal #chelsea #tottenham #soccer #football #manchesterunited

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On this episode, Patrick and Ravi discuss Real Madrid's 5-2 win over Dortmund and the injuries to Thibaut Courtois and Rodrygo. Next, they preview the Barcelona vs. Bayern Munich Champions League match today and how the game might be insightful for El Clasico on Saturday. They then dive into the best lineups for both Real Madrid and Barcelona, how much injured (Dani Olmo and Gavi) and older (Luka Modric) might play, and give their predictions for the final score. They end the conversation with Xabi Alonso's rumoured exit from Bayer Leverkusen at the end of the season, potential landing spots, and if he will actually leave. Enjoy!

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Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:02 - Real Madrid vs. Dortmund

04:32 - Real Madrid’s defense was shocking

05:32 - Different Midfield lineups Madrid has used

06:50 - Ravi’s pre-game prediction

07:48 - Bellingham last season vs. this season

09:43 - Modric, Valverde, and Madrid’s Galactico mindset

11:02 - How do they fix their midfield issues?

11:41 - How much will Modric play?

14:08 - Will Rodrygo be the odd man out?

15:12 - Barcelona vs. Bayern Munich Preview

16:20 - A good test for Bayern

17:39 - Barcelona players returning from injury

18:50 - How much can Gavi give them?

21:02 - What front 3 will Barcelona play?

22:35 - Giving minutes to returning players against Bayern

23:33 - What lineup will Madrid use against Barcelona?

24:10 - Courtois injury for Madrid

25:19 - An offensive vs. defensive lineup

26:37 - Stylistic matchups

28:21 - Should Barcelona play more conservatively?

30:11 - Both teams are weak at fullback

31:13 - Lewandowski should play as a pivot

31:57 - Ideal lineup for Barcelona

33:21 - Ravi’s predictions for El Clasico

35:38 - Patrick’s prediction for El Clasico

36:45 - Flick’s first Clasico

37:12 - A La Liga game vs. a Champions League game

39:19 - Leverkusen rumoured to be looking for a Xavi Alonso replacement

40:14 - The timing with Txiki’s departure and Pep’s contract expiring

40:52 - Real Madrid also make sense

41:34 - Hugo Viana and Ruben Amorim

42:21 - The obvious spot for Xabi Alonso

44:25 - What happens if Carlo Ancelotti doesn’t want to leave?

47:18 - Alonso’s contract ends in 2026

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On this episode, Ted and Patrick discuss the eventful Liverpool vs. Chelsea match and Liverpool's defense looking vulnerable. They also discuss the impact VAR had over the weekend, and get into Saliba's red card in Arsenal's 2-0 loss to Bournemouth. Next comes Southampton's loss to Leicester and Russell Martin's comments after the game. They finish with Fulham vs. Aston Villa, Brighton vs. Newcastle and the resurgence of Raul Jimenez, Manchester United looking competent, and the trend of teams playing safer.

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00:00 - Intro

01:06 - Liverpool vs. Chelsea

03:23 - Trent Alexander-Arnold is a double-edged sword

04:22 - How cautious can you be in the modern Premier League?

05:07 - Concern for Andrew Robertson?

07:44 - Did Chelsea deserve an early penalty?

08:00 - VAR and red cards this weekend

08:44 - Caicedo as a playmaker

09:58 - This was Liverpool’s first real test

10:41 - Arsenal vs. Bournemouth

11:47 - Saliba’s red card

13:03 - Marginal calls in football

14:55 - How coaches game plan in the Premier League

16:24 - Manchester City look fragile

17:35 - Taking a red card vs. allowing a chance

19:16 - Southampton vs. Leicester City

20:36 - Russell Martin’s comments after the game

22:02 - How coaches start to talk when they want to be fired

25:29 - Mourinho’s ability to deflect from a bad performance

26:17 - Southampton’s poor performance under Martin

28:38 - 8 point gap to Leicester now

28:59 - Facundo Buonanotte and Brighton’s future

30:35 - Fulham vs. Aston Villa

33:03 - Neutral’s will love Fulham games

33:15 - Raul Jimenez is in insane form

35:10 - The resurgence of Old and Tall strikers

36:32 - Newcastle vs. Brighton

38:52 - Manchester looked competent

40:53 - Garnacho’s tendency to take wide-angle shots

42:45 - Is the trend of teams playing safer a problem?

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On this episode, Ted and Patrick discuss all things Premier League related from the start of the season. They begin with teams that should be higher or lower than their current position in the table. Next, they decide which of the 4 relegation candidates will stay up. And finally, both Patrick and Ted give their predictions for the Top 6. Where do you think Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea, Manchester United, Tottenham, and the rest of the Premier League will finish?

Sebastian's guest newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/p/3-young-attacking-mids-on-the-rise

Ted's preseason gambling podcast: https://youtu.be/keg7HlCXPwE

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Timestamps:

00:00:00 - Intro

00:02:34 - Who is the premier league table lying about right now?

00:02:41 - Newcastle United

00:05:37 - Giving honest takes vs driving engagement

00:06:31 - The table of justice

00:07:16 - Tottenham should be slightly better

00:08:03 - Spurs are playing like a Bundesliga team

00:09:12 - Exciting young pieces

00:11:03 - Where are they likely to finish?

00:12:44 - Bournemouth are better than the Table says

00:14:30 - Optimism for Everton

00:15:10 - Guest Newsletter authors

00:15:45 - Dwight McNeil’s blossoming role

00:18:11 - A Cash injection this January can fix their issues

00:19:02 - Everton fans should be happy with the takeover

00:21:35 - Manchester United’s rough start

00:22:36 - The Model’s take on United before the season

00:24:34 - United don’t tolerate long processes

00:26:20 - United fans who have never seen the good times

00:27:12 - Of the 4 candidates, who will get relegated?

00:27:27 - Ipswich

00:29:30 - Wolves

00:31:40 - Patrick’s prediction to stay up

00:32:43 - Leicester’s 5 point advantage

00:34:06 - the difficulty making a case for any of these teams

00:36:30 - What the gambling markets say

00:38:50 - Predicting the top 6

00:39:11 - factoring in a potential punishment for City

00:41:23 - Patrick’s top 4

00:42:40 - Talent goes a long way

00:44:56 - Patrick’s title winner

00:48:07 - Patrick’s 2nd place team

00:52:39 - 3rd place

00:56:48 - Debating the Last Champions League spot

00:59:57 - Patrick’s 5th and 6th place

01:00:24 - What the betting markets say

01:01:46 - Ted’s top 6

01:03:26 - When we’ll check back in on our predictions

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On this episode, Patrick and Ravi do a deep dive on the top teams in Serie A. They start with Napoli, who are top of the table despite what may have been the worst transfer window of any team. Next is Inter and their hopes back-to-back titles. Can they pull it off again despite an aging squad? Then comes Lazio, whose unconventional approach to players and manager hires sparks an interesting discussion on high variance teams. Last comes Milan, who almost sacked manager Paulo Fonseca early in the year, but have stabilized to be just 5 points out of first place. Enjoy!

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Timestamp:

00:00 - Intro

01:07 - Napoli’s fantastic start

01:40 - Our rough grades for Napoli’s window

03:04 - Lack of minutes for new players

05:26 - A more Conservative defensive style

06:28 - Grades are not based on 7 games 

08:02  - Low shot quality in Serie A

10:53 - Lack of depth in attack for Napoli limits their title threat?

11:58 - Napoli’s advantage with no European Competition

14:50 - Where will they finish?

16:12 - Inter’s erratic start to the season

17:22 - The most balanced team in Serie A?

18:58 - Inter’s defensive shift

19:20 - Can the oldest team in Serie A keep this up?

21:31 - Marcus Thuram

22:39 - Do Inter need to share minutes more?

25:19 - Could they switch styles later in the year?

26:55 - Predictions for Inter’s season

27:17 - Lazio’s surprising start

28:41 - unexpected names contributing for Lazio

31:10 - Marco Baroni’s influence

35:43 - Are fringe European teams to conservative with their coaching hires?

39:12 - Thomas Tuchel’s training stories and how coaches influence their players

42:36 - Analytics only matter if you can translate them into simple messages

45:15 - Milan shake off a rough start

47:14 - Favorable matchups coming up

47:57 - Pulisic playing well and staying healthy

49:38 - Rafael Leao’s Attacking threat

51:47 - Using avoidance strategies to change player behaviors

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On this episode, Patrick and Ravi discuss Dani Carvajal's injury and potential replacements that Real Madrid should consider. Can they get Trent Alexander-Arnold to come over, or should they look elsewhere? They then get into Chelsea's front line and which combinations of players is best for their team. Next, Manchester City's Director of Football Txiki Begiristain is set to leave, who are the likely hires with Pep's departure looming. Finally, Paul Pogba suspension was reduced, where are the likely landing spots for the 31-year-old Italian midfielder? Enjoy!

Ted's article on potential Toni Kroos replacements: https://www.thetransferflow.com/p/kroos-ify-me

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Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro

00:46 - Dani Carvajal's injury

01:34 - Specifics of the injury

04:50 - Carvajal's 1 year extension

05:23 - Solutions for Real Madrid

05:57 - A leadership gap

07:33 - Can Madrid lure Trent Alexander-Arnold?

10:03 - Hakimi as an option at RB

12:50 - Sliding Militao over from CB?

15:16 - Other candidates at RB

17:55 - Will Kroos unretire?

18:20 - Unresolved Vini Jr/Mbappe problems

19:55 - Who should play in Chelsea's front line?

24:29 - The disadvantage of signing the best players from smaller sides?

26:26 - Where does Nkunku fit in?

27:23 - Can players change their pressing style?

30:18 - Joao Felix's adaptability

31:02 - What happens against better sides?

32:33 - City lose their Director of Football, Txiki Begiristain

33:24 - How did Txiki perform?

36:17 - Potential replacements

39:09 - How does a DoF influence the rest of the back room?

42:47 - Will the next DoF be more powerful with Pep likely gone?

45:38 - Paul Pogba's suspension reduced

46:12 - Where might Pogba end up?

48:38 - Is MLS an option?

50:20 - Could he stay in Italy?

51:28 - Playing Pogba as a 10

53:16 - Taking a smaller contract to entice bigger teams

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