This week on Sinica, a special taping of an online event I moderated on February 22, just two days shy of the second anniversary of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. The session was titled “The Ukrainian Factor in China’s Strategy,” and it was organized by the Ukrainian Association of Sinologists, and featured that organization’s chairperson, Vita Golod; Bartosz Kowalski, senior analyst at the Center for Asian Affairs at the University of Lodz; Lü Xiaoyu of Peking University’s School of International Studies; and Klaus Larres, distinguished professor of history and international affairs, at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill. 

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2:42 – Introducing the guests

6:19 – Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba’s meeting with top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi

12:19 – What do Ukraine and its allies want from China?

16:59 – What inducements might Ukraine’s Western allies offer China?

21:51 – How has China’s position changed over the course of the last two years?

29:52 – The space for expression of pro-Ukraine voices in China

32:08 – Ukrainian and Chinese popular opinion 

36:44 – Does the diplomacy of sanctimony work on a realist power?

48:00 – China’s 12-Point Position

51:48 – Does Russian economic dependency on China translate into leverage?

54:04 – The overlap between China’s 12 points and Zelenskyy’s 10 points

57:42 – How reliable is America as a partner in this election year?

1:08:53  – How will this war end? What compromises are the sides willing to make?

1:21:32 – Lü Xiaoyu’s trip to Ukraine and his meeting with President Zelenskyy

There’s a complete transcript to this episode available at sinica.substack.com.

Sorry, no recommendations this week, but here’s one from me: The new remake of James Clavell’s epic novel Shògun, which is out on Hulu and FX. It’s pretty mind-blowing!

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