The Why? Curve

The next El Nino could be the biggest in history. The Pacific atmospheric pattern that regularly disrupts global weather, is set to cause floods in some areas and droughts in others, on a larger scale than ever before, because of climate change. So how worried should we be? And what can we expect? Phil and Roger ask Manoj Joshi, Professor of Climate Dynamics at the University of East Anglia.

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Three months of US efforts to tame Iran, and Donald Trump is in a bind - there's still no deal, and Iran has a stranglehold on the Straits of Hormuz. Oil price rises mean the cost of filling up the car is painful for many Americans, and that could spell trouble for the Republicans in the upcoming mid-term elections. But the US stock market is buoyant and Trump seem unperturbed - so is he far more in control of all this than he seems? Is he using 'madman theory' to keep his enemies guessing? Phil and Roger ask Dr James Boys, senior research fellow at UCL's Centre on US Politics, and author of "US Grand Strategy and the Madman Theory"

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Has reality TV become too toxic? A number of scandals have shown the dark side of formats that put ordinary, vulnerable people in challenging situations - and let us be amused by the disastrous results. Whether it's Married At First Sight or Love Island, is there something wrong and damaging about this sort of entertainment? Helen Wood is Professor of Media and Cultural Studies at Aston University, and has led research into the effect of reality TV on participants, crew and audiences - she tells Phil and Roger about the costs of all this  

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As Hantavirus and Ebola grab the headlines, how prepared is the world for the next pandemic? Have we learned from COVID both how to stop the spread and deal with a panicking population? Are we ready for the new animal-origin viruses that emerge as humans encroach on their habitats? Phil and Roger ask Dr Jeremy Rossman, senior lecturer in virology at the University of Kent.

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If the polls are right, ReformUK could be in Downing Street in three years. So what would they do with the country? We know they don't like immigrants or Europe or windfarms, but what DO they want? How would they shape Britain's economy, foreign policy, health service? Dr Vladimir Bortun, lecturer in politics at Oxford University, tells Phil and Roger it would be some form extreme Thatcherism, but with policies shaped to please the party's billionaire backers, rather than their mainly working-class supporters.

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A global energy crisis - and yet Wall Street is still surging at record levels. It's largely AI that's fuelling stocks, but many see it as a bubble, and of course, AI needs a lot of the energy that is becoming increasingly scarce. So does this all mean a major correction in stock prices is coming? A market crash that could make us all poorer, and shatter the prospects of economies far away from the US? Phil and Roger ask David McMillan, Professor of Finance at the University of Stirling.

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Is humanity kinder now than it has ever been before? Today we are appalled at things that were commonplace only a generation ago - unmarried mothers forced to hand over their babies for adoption, gay soldiers imprisoned for their sexuality, landlords refusing black tenants. So has empathy changed us? And what has brought that about? Phil and Roger ask Dr Steve Taylor, senior lecturer in psychology at Leeds Beckett University, and author of "DisConnected: The Roots of Human Cruelty and How Connection Can Heal The World" 

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Can we afford to boost national defence alongside the growing bill for benefits, health and social care? Can the UK's shaky finances cope with both? Or is there a choice to be made, as the Russian threat pushes the need for more tanks, drones and bullets? Simon French, chief economist and head of research at Panmure Gordon, takes Phil and Roger through the difficult challenges of balancing demand and capacity in the national budget 

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The bombs have stopped falling on Iran, but not on Lebanon. Israel is talking to the Lebanese government, but has not let up in its assault on Hezbollah, which continues to fire rockets into Israel. The war in the last few weeks has cost more than 2000 Lebanese lives. Lebanon has been attacked again and again by Israel over many decades. Its economy has collapsed and hundreds of thousands have lost their homes. So why is this small country the focus of so much destruction and violence? What is Hezbollah's role? And is there any hope of long-term peace? Professor John Nagle of Queen's University, Belfast, tells Phil and Roger what has happened, and what could happen next

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While the world’s attention has been fixed on the Iran war, the conflict in Ukraine has not gone away - and what’s happened in the Gulf is changing the situation there too. Putin has more money from the rise in the oil price, and has seen the US use its diminishing stockpile of weapons against Iran rather than sending them to Ukraine. Kyiv meanwhile has made new friends in the Gulf by assisting in anti-drone warfare - new friends with deep pockets. David Galbreath, Professor of War and Technology at the University of Bath, tells Phil and Roger how all this is likely to affect the outcome of the fighting in Ukraine.

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