The first of two specials covering Russia’s war on Ukraine two years on. This time: Inside Russia. Avdiivka has fallen, Alexei Navalny is dead, and pro-Russia Republicans are starving Kyiv of ammunition. Putin finally feels the war could turn in his direction. Is he right? And how does the Russian tyrant keep control of a country where a restive mood is growing… and even fake elections can matter?

Oz Katerji talks to Mark Galeotti, historian and host of the podcast In Moscow’s Shadows, about the political world Putin has made, and what it means. 

Part Two of these specials will be with Patreon people early in the week. 

• “We are looking at Russia’s degeneration into its Banana Republic phase.” 

• “The investment of human lives into taking Avdiivka is completely out of proportion to its strategic value.”

• “Putin is a primordial 19th century nationalist… He can’t cope with the idea that Russia is not some world-bestriding colossus.” 

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Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production

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From Cop28 to Manchester City to the attempted purchase of the Telegraph newspaper, the United Arab Emirates are suddenly flexing power and prestige across the Gulf. Behind it all is Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, known as MBZ, who mixes a show of modernisation with an iron will, especially regarding human rights. Who is MBZ? How has his tiny state become such a global player? And are the UAE a friend or a foe of democracies?

Emma Beals talks to Dr Andreas Krieg, fellow at the Institute of Middle East Studies at King’s College London, and Middle East expert Dr Talal Mohammad to find out how MBZ is buying his way to power.

• “9/11 was a formative moment for him. He saw how powerful these Islamist networks could be in his own country… it brought about a perception of ‘If you’re not with us, you’re against us’.” – Dr Andreas Krieg

• “As long as the major world powers are divided, then the UAE, Saudi and the others will try to exploit that situation.” – Dr Talal Mohammad

• “Everyone who knows him from Sandhurst says he’s not one of these spoilt princes. He is highly disciplined and he has a vision of what he wants for the UAE.” – Dr Andreas Krieg

Gavin Esler returns next week. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more.

Written and presented by Emma Beals. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production

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The fear that a re-elected Trump would pull the US out of NATO haunts European leaders. Now he says he’d actively encourage Putin to attack European countries who haven’t “paid their bills”. Could a second Trump presidency really open the door for war in Europe? What contingency plans is NATO making? Has Europe really underspent on defence? And is Putin exploiting cracks in the European hard right and left for his own ends?

Gavin Esler talks to historian and Senior Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute Dr Helene von Bismarck and Peter Apps, author of Deterring Armageddon: A Biography Of NATO, about Trump’s dangerous ideas and populism’s Putin problem.

• “It would be incredibly naive to imagine that, if Trump is re-elected, Europe will simple reorganise itself to compensate… That takes time and it is time we don’t have.” – Helene von Bismarck

• “Regardless of whether we get another Trump presidency, the days in which Europe was America’s top priority are over.” – Peter Apps

• “In the next five to eight years it’s not impossible that Russia might attack a NATO state… We have to start preparing to prevent this worst-case scenario.” – Helene von Bismarck

• “The head of the Estonian military talks in terms of Russia being able to recharge enough to attack a NATO country within one year of fighting stopping in Ukraine.” – Peter Apps

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When you buy books through our affiliate links you’re helping This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too.

Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production

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Could the belligerence of North Korea – enigma, dynastic dictatorship, nuclear-armed regional menace – be coming to a violent head? Leader Kim Jong Un has torn up his country’s long-cherished goal of reunifying with the South; is ordering provocative missile launches; and ratcheting up tensions with the United States. Could he take the final step into war?

Gavin Esler talks to DPRK expert and nuclear analyst Rachel Minyoung Lee and Seoul-based journalist and NKnews.org founder Chad O’Carroll about the road to North Korea’s new aggression, its increasingly cosy relationships with Putin and China… and what Kim really wants.

• “In a crowded field of human rights abusers, North Korea is regarded as the worst.” – Gavin Esler

• “Times could not be better for North Korea… Ukraine showed them that the US will not engage another nuclear power on the battlefield.” – Rachel Minyoung Lee

• “Korea is the ultimate dictatorship. It learned from the fall of socialism and other totalitarian systems how to deal with that risk.” – Chad O’Carroll

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When you buy books through our affiliate links you’re helping This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too.

Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production

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The world’s future is darkening. Ukraine’s defence is in peril, the Red Sea and Israel/Hamas conflicts threaten to join hands, the US is stationing nuclear weapons in England again, and even conscription is back on the agenda. Where are these multiple crises in Ukraine and the Middle East heading?

The This Is Not A Drill team of Gavin Esler, Kyiv-based conflict journalist Oz Katerji and independent consultant and senior adviser at the European Institute for Peace Emma Beals convene for the first of our semi-regular panel discussions.

• “It’s very simple. If you don’t want to worry about conscription then provide Ukraine with the support it needs.” – Oz Katerji

• “The US was trying very hard to steer clear of the Middle East before October… They’ve been brought back unwillingly and they don’t have a lot of choice in the matter.” – Emma Beals

• “My strong impression is that Donald Trump is out for revenge against both Ukraine and Zelenskyy… There is real concern about a Trump presidency.” – Oz Katerji

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When you buy books through our affiliate links you’re helping This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too.

Written and presented by Gavin Esler with Emma Beals and Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production

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Is peace with Putin even possible? In the early days of Russia’s war on Ukraine, negotiations seemed viable. Then came Bucha and the revelations of Russian atrocities on Ukrainian soil. Now Russia is again “putting out feelers” for peace talks – but would negotiation simply give Putin a chance to consolidate his gains and regroup for more?

Oz Katerji tells the story of the “missed chance” of peace talks in Istanbul in October 2022, the myth that Boris Johnson sank them, and the danger of new ceasefire discussions, especially under Trump.

He speaks to Yaroslav Trofimov – Chief Foreign-Affairs Correspondent of The Wall Street Journal and author of Our Enemies will Vanish: The Russian Invasion and Ukraine’s War of Independence – and Brookings Institute fellow Dr Angela Stent, author of Putin’s World.

• “When Ukrainian forces entered Bucha, that was when everyone realised what happens under Russian rule… That it is not just a war to replace a government, it’s a war with genocidal intent.” – Yaroslav Trofimov

• “This war will be decided by which society cracks first.” – Yaroslav Trofimov

• “There are election posters up in Moscow which say ‘Russia has no borders’… There is no indication that Russia is serious about a peace deal.” – Angela Stent

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When you buy books through our affiliate links you’re helping This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too.

Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production

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Tensions are rising across the Taiwan Strait. China is enraged that the Taiwanese people have chosen a man Beijing calls a “troublemaker”, William Lai, as their President. Now Xi Jinping has become personally invested in regaining the territory. While a hot military conflict would be disastrous far beyond the region, China has many other options from trade blockades to naval harassment. So how far will Beijing go to achieve what it calls the “historical inevitability” of reunification with Taiwan?

Gavin Esler talks to journalist William Yang in Taipei and China expert Richard McGregor of the Lowy Institute in Sydney about a decades-old conflict that is heating up alarmingly.

• “China tried to drum up rhetoric that the election was a choice between war and peace… This sabre-rattling only worked among the older generation.” – William Yang

• “There’s not much the US could do in the short-term if China decided to move.” – Richard McGregor

• “Xi has a ton of enemies, from people whose careers he destroyed in his anticorruption campaign to more liberal Chinese… They are waiting for him to stumble.” – Richard McGregor

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Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Additional music by Simon Williams. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production

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Gavin Esler talks with Yemen expert Helen Lackner after a night of yet more conflict in the Middle East.

Within hours of our recording with Yemen expert and author Helen Lackner analysing the Houthi militia’s attacks on Red Sea shipping vessels , the United States, supported by a coalition of the UK and eight other countries, led airstrikes on Houthi facilities in Yemen.

The reaction from the Houthis has been to threaten reprisals - could this be the kind of escalation in the Middle East feared since Hamas’ attack on Israel and the devastating reprisals in Gaza?

For further context listen to our Houthi explainer with Helen Lackner here: http://listen.podmasters.uk/tinadwebsite?at=1001l39LM

Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more.

Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production

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This is a special crossover episode with The Bunker, our daily politics podcast, and we’re bringing it to the TINAD feed too. Why are UK and US navies defending Western shipping against missile attacks and hijacks from rebels in the poorest country in the Middle East? The battle between the Yemeni government and the Houthi militia threatens to spill over into a wider regional conflict – and Iran is fanning the flames. What happens next?

Gavin Esler talks to Helen Lackner, author of Yemen In Crisis, to find out who the Houthi are, what they want, what their rebellion means for the West… and whether the war could spread. (This edition recorded before the US/UK missile actions)

Follow The Bunker on your favourite podcast provider for daily explainers, interviews and untold stories from the worlds of politics and current affairs – all bite-sized for your commute.

Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Art by James Parrett. Bunker music by Kenny Dickinson. TINAD music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. THE BUNKER and THIS IS NOT A DRILL are Podmasters Productions

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In twelve months’ time America will inaugurate a new President. It could be a man who says he’ll act as a “dictator on day one,” who rejects elections if he doesn’t win them, and whose America First ideas could shatter what remains of the global order.

With a year to go, UCL Associate Professor in Global Politics Brian Klaas tells Gavin Esler how Donald Trump has damaged American politics more deeply than anyone realises – how driving Trump off mainstream social media to Truth Social only hid his increasingly fascistic outbursts from public view – and what it will take to stop him.

• “Trump 2.0 would be way more dangerous than Trump 1.0.”

• “It is highly likely that if Trump loses there will be significant political violence – probably worse than Jan 6.”

• “Once you don’t have a shared sense of reality, democracy falls apart.”

• “Come November, nobody will be able to say they didn’t know what was going on. He’s been completely open about it.”

Buy Brian Klaas’s book Fluke: Chance, Chaos, and Why Everything We Do Matters through our affiliate bookshop and you’ll help fund This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too.

Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more.

Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production

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