There’s a new word in the financial lexicon. Transitory. And it all has to do with whether recent moves higher in prices of everything from lumber to copper to labor are the first signs of 1970s type inflation, or….as the Fed believes, is just “transitory” and will work itself out once the pandemic is over. We’re sitting down with Executive Director and Senior Economist of CME Group, Erik Norland, to discuss just what he sees in the commodity space, including a first for our pod – charts during the video portion!

Erik dishes on his background, how he ended up in London, Bayesian models, if you can be an economist without slides, Trillions, the devastation in India, the massive amount of debt in China, inflationary vs deflationary pressures, the craziness that is the hedonic CPI adjustments, infrastructure plans, R&D spending <> materials spending, if Gold is in trouble, why Europe’s lagging, whether there’s enough money to buy meme stocks/crypto AND physical goods to cause inflation, what options prices are saying about agriculture markets, and much more. Join our interesting conversation.

Chapters:

00:00-02:40=Intro

02:41-12:00=The CME’s Euro Step

12:01-27:09=Fiscal Stimulus & Inflation during the Pandemic

27:10-48:27=Measuring Inflation & What about Deflation

48:28-55:28=The MMT Theory & China’s Debt

55:29-58:53=How Injured is India?

58:54-01:05:02=Agriculture, Energy & The Importance of Water

01:05:03-01:13:21=Fat Tails in Agriculture

01:13:22-01:16:54=Favorites

Read more of Erik’s research on CME Group’s website here: https://www.cmegroup.com/education/featured-reports/bios/erik-norland.html

And last but not least, don't forget to subscribe to The Derivative and sign-up for our blog digest.

You can follow our host Jeff Malec on Twitter and RCM Alts on Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook.

Disclaimer: This podcast is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as legal, business, or tax advice. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of RCM Alternatives, their affiliates, or companies featured. Due to industry regulations, participants on this podcast are instructed not to make specific trade recommendations, nor reference past or potential profits. And listeners are reminded that managed futures, commodity trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. For more information, visit www.rcmalternatives.com/disclaimer