June 23, 2025

Trump Strikes, But Iran Outsmarts? Uranium Vanishes | Markets Hold… But for How Long? | IndiGo Mayday Scare | Strait of Hormuz on the Brink

8 minutes

Welcome to Top of the Morning by Mint.. I’m Nelson John and here are today’s top stories.

Markets Resilient, But Oil’s the Wildcard

Despite the chaos, Indian markets are holding their ground. Since the Israel-Iran conflict flared up, Nifty and Sensex have climbed 1.59%, even as Brent crude rose 2.19% to $76.57/barrel. But the calm may not last.

Alok Agarwal of Alchemy Capital warns of a crude spike beyond $100/barrel — a red flag for India, which imports over 80% of its oil. Aniruddha Sarkar of Quest adds that sectors like paints, aviation, and OMCs could feel the squeeze if oil keeps climbing. However, a non-escalatory response from Iran could trigger a market rally, says IIFL’s Nirmal Jain.

Strait of Hormuz: The Oil Chokepoint

Iran’s top security council may close the Strait of Hormuz — a move that would threaten 20% of the world’s oil flow. Revolutionary Guards commander Esmail Kosari has confirmed it’s “on the agenda.” Since June 13, when Israel struck Iran, Brent has already surged over 10%. Maersk says its ships still sail, but they’re monitoring risk closely.

Flashbacks to the 1980s “Tanker Wars” and fears of a new US naval buildup are surfacing. If Hormuz shuts down, prices could jump to $120–130 — or even $400 in a worst-case scenario.

India’s Oil Strategy Shift

Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri says India has significantly reduced its dependence on Hormuz. In June 2025, India’s Russian oil imports are expected to hit a two-year high of 2–2.2 million barrels/day — more than from Saudi or Iraq. US oil imports are also up nearly 57%.

With reserves in place and alternative shipping routes via the Suez, Cape of Good Hope, and Pacific, India is positioning itself to weather supply shocks. Still, if Iran closes Hormuz, freight costs and volatility could rise fast.

Trump’s Big Strike — and the Fallout

Trump called Iran’s nuclear program “completely obliterated” after US strikes on Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. But Pentagon officials are backpedaling, confirming only “severe damage.” Satellite images show Fordow took direct hits, but not total destruction.

Worse, Israeli intel reveals Iran removed 400 kg of uranium days before the attack. IAEA chief Rafael Grossi confirmed the fuel is now unaccounted for — a worrying development. The world waits for Iran’s next move.

Mayday Over Bengaluru

Just days after a deadly Air India crash, an IndiGo flight from Guwahati to Chennai issued a Mayday call over low fuel. The pilot aborted landing in Chennai and diverted to Bengaluru, where the plane landed safely. No injuries were reported, but the scare — coupled with the earlier Air India tragedy — has sparked renewed scrutiny over aviation safety. IndiGo has grounded both pilots.

Markets Hold Steady as Oil Threat Looms Amid US-Iran Escalation

Nifty’s immediate support lies at 24,850; resistance around 25,250, says SBI’s Sudeep Shah. The India VIX is down 9% since June 13, suggesting subdued volatility — for now. Experts advise staggered investments as markets remain sensitive to geopolitical headlines.

Experts say India is better placed than ever to absorb shocks. “We’re in a stronger position than previous crises,” said Kenneth Andrade of Old Bridge Capital. Asian markets closed strong on Friday, signaling hope — but all eyes remain on Iran’s response.

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