A wide-ranging conversation on the current rate environment, the road ahead for monetary policy, and the landscape for broader fixed income investing. Featured are Phoebe White, Head of US Rates Strategy at UBS Group Research, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office.

China’s July consumer and producer price inflation were lower than expected. China’s domestic prices have a weak relationship with export prices, and China's export prices have a weak relationship with global inflation. The price declines were attributed to energy and tourism services. However, this is another economy where inflation has been lower than consensus. Possibly the consensus is being distorted by the unusual experiences of 2022.

The scale of the AI buildout is extending its effects beyond the technology sector and equity markets to the broader economy. This episode explores what the investment surge could mean for productivity, growth, inflation, and interest rates, and how investors can balance exposure to AI beneficiaries with assets resilient to its broader macroeconomic effects.

China’s July export data was somewhat stronger than expected. The big three electrification exports have collectively been important to export growth. China’s exports to the US are steady around pre-pandemic levels (using China’s data, which is probably a better reflection of trade trends). German June exports were stronger than expected and (of course) past data was revised stronger.

Today is the release of everything economists do not understand about the US economy—otherwise known as second quarter productivity. Productivity has assumed mythical status as people search for AI benefits. While technology should improve a company’s or sector’s productivity, its macro impact is less certain as people move into less productive jobs. Some productivity gains will not be counted—my robot lawnmower has substantially improved my productivity, but cutting my lawn was never part of GDP.

Michael Adelman and Matt Iannuci, along with Eileen Liu, Head of US Client Portfolio Management, join to discuss recent market developments within high yield bonds and broader credit markets.

As global equity markets set new all-time-highs and show signs of recovery from July indigestion, Burkhard outlines the factors that are driving current investor sentiment. We also cover the currency intervention by the US Fed and Bank of Japan. Plus, a market tie-in to Sysiphus, the hero of the ancient Greek-saga “A happy man”.

Oil prices are down and the optimism bias is up. There are hopes for an Iran-Oman settlement on post-war control of the Strait of Hormuz. This would probably mean tolls eventually (probably branded a “tariff” or an “environmental charge” according to political bias). A toll would be economically negligible. Iran cementing control of the Strait has implications for insurance, supply chain security, and Gulf infrastructure investment.

Doug Baker is a Portfolio Manager for Nuveen’s global fixed income team. Doug joins Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, for a comprehensive discussion on the preferred securities market. They cover a performance update and outlook, risk considerations, positioning views, and more.

US Michigan consumer sentiment data is a weak economic signal. It does have political punch, via the inflation expectations measure. Consumers focus on the price of frequent purchases (food and fuel), and tend to fixate on the price level. Most consumers will have a “fair” price in mind as a reference, and for gasoline prices that is probably around USD 2.50 per US gallon. Gasoline remains well above that level—off its highs, but having risen recently.