The US “Temu tax” takes effect at midnight, whereby US consumers pay their government for the privilege of buying low cost products directly from China. The tax is unlikely to show up in consumer price data (it is doubtful that Temu prices are used in the calculation), but it is a visible price increase to many US consumers—a reminder that they, not exporters, pay trade tariffs.

Having just attended the IMF-World Bank meetings in Washington DC, Alejo rejoins the conversation for some boots-on-the ground takeaways around the impacts of US trade policy to global economies. Plus, a review of focus points when it comes to broader emerging markets, China, and Latin America. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, CIO for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Officer. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The only certainty economists have about yesterday’s first-quarter GDP data is that it is wrong. Declining survey response rates and economies that structurally change more rapidly than statisticians can measure have conspired to make GDP everywhere subject to more frequent and larger revisions. Nonetheless, broad trends show an economy being rapidly shaped by US President Trump’s policy.

As the Trump administration marks 100 days in office, Burkhard reflects on how global markets have performed during this span. Plus, we dive into the US-China tariff conflict and discuss how this trading relationship may evolve from here, along with what investors should be mindful of when it comes to China’s economic model.

Online retailer Amazon denied reports it would publish the tariff impact on the price of each item sold on its US website. The general lack of tariff transparency risks higher US inflation by enabling retailers to indulge in profit-led inflation—blaming tariffs for price increases that actually raise profit margin. Lack of transparency also risks consumers blaming tariffs for every price increase, reducing confidence and threatening growth.

Justin and Ainsely outline the considerations for adding annuity income as part of one’s retirement strategy, along with explain the current appeal of annuities, and steps investors can take in order to make a plan. Featured is Justin Waring, Senior Total Wealth Strategist, & Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump is to mark their 100th day in office with a partial retreat on auto-part trade taxes, and a speech. The speech risks further erratic policy pronouncements—Trump declared very negative approval ratings to be “fake news”, but may want to blame external forces for their poll performance. That might lead to policy pronouncements on immigration, trade, or some other economically significant issue. Uncertainty about such policy shifts has economic consequences.

Coming off of one of the best weeks for US equities in 2025, Jason considers whether investors are getting ahead of themselves as macro uncertainty remains. Jason also weighs in on the debate over whether US exceptionalism can continue. Plus, a review of CIO’s latest market outlook and investor recommendations per the May UBS House View. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Last Friday’s US data showed a notable improvement in late April consumer sentiment, but only for registered Republicans. Consumers today are buying goods imported before the oppressive burden of trade taxes (on average, it will take about three months for pre-tax inventory to be used). This means economic reality has not penetrated the partisan media bubble around consumers. Businesses are faster to react, with uncertainty fueling a collapse in US port activity as companies “wait and see”.

Hear views on the US equity markets from Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager of the House View Equity Portfolios, and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team, and Dominic Schagar, Senior Equity Investment Specialist.