July US producer price data did nothing to change economists’ outlook for the Federal Reserve. Lettuce prices collapsed 72% from the previous month—this follows a health scare and a demand drop, and is unlikely to be touted as an example of disinflation by the administration.

Following another busy week of corporate earnings releases and equities reaching all-time-highs, Burkhard weighs equity valuations, whether the data-center boom is sustainable, the longevity of productivity momentum, along with where the global race for AI dominance stands today.

The July US consumer price inflation data was as expected. This allowed headline writers to wax lyrical about “easing pressures on the US Federal Reserve”. Economists are not rushing to change views—the economic consensus is very clearly for unchanged US rates this year. Non-oil price pressures still seem benign, but this print was flattered by fewer gasoline price increases that will be evident in the August data.

Eric Kazatzky is a Managing Director and Client Portfolio Manager at MacKay Shields (an affiliate of New York Life Investment Management). As we’re just past the mid-way point of the year, Eric outlines YTD muni market performance, and shares a year-end performance outlook. We cover the outperformance of Revenue Bonds, whether opportunity still exists in the 12-22-year portion of the yield curve, and how to think about High Yield munis in the second-half. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Today's US July consumer price inflation data will be less precise than in the past. There are more gaps in the data, and those gaps are filled by (educated) guesswork. Blunting consumer price precision will not impact markets however—investors are straining to second-guess what the Federal Reserve will do with policy. The reaction to a single weaker employment report shows the potency of any data release at the moment.

Dan and Sean drop by for a hedge fund performance update and outlook. We discuss the year-to-date evolution of risk and capital deployment, common themes observed in hedge fund books, along with strategies to consider in the current environment. Featured are Dan Scansaroli, Head of Global Investment Management Multi-Asset Solutions & Co-Head Investment Management Americas, & Sean Sanborn, Hedge Fund Strategist. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The crude oil price is creeping toward USD 90 per barrel. US President Trump responded to Iran’s demands for reparations by demanding Iran pay reparations—this is not the sort of concession the US will be required to make to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It is too soon for the recent rise in crude oil to show up in US retail gasoline prices, so domestic political pressures have probably not yet peaked.

There are no signs of a summer slowdown for equity, bond, and forex markets as factors such as corporate earnings, economic data, AI developments, and policy news continue to drive notable market movement. Jason drops by to assess these market drivers, what it all means for the investment outlook, and shares CIO’s current investment recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

A wide-ranging conversation on the current rate environment, the road ahead for monetary policy, and the landscape for broader fixed income investing. Featured are Phoebe White, Head of US Rates Strategy at UBS Group Research, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office.

China’s July consumer and producer price inflation were lower than expected. China’s domestic prices have a weak relationship with export prices, and China's export prices have a weak relationship with global inflation. The price declines were attributed to energy and tourism services. However, this is another economy where inflation has been lower than consensus. Possibly the consensus is being distorted by the unusual experiences of 2022.