The US long weekend was marked by aggressive policies and then a retreat, but that still leaves its mark on financial markets. The US dollar remains near its recent lows against major currencies. Investors are concerned that the retreats may not be comprehensive, and that economic behavior will still have to adjust to accommodate wild policy swings.

US President Trump has retreated from their threat to aggressively tax US consumers of European products, delaying the suggested 50% tariff to July. These retreats are so frequent that investors should rationally expect them. So why do markets still react to the initial announcements, as happened last Friday?

Administration comments suggest US President Trump is willing to increase taxes on US consumers of EU-made products, if the EU does not make unilateral concessions on tariffs. Markets are unlikely to place too much weight on these threats given the president’s tendency to rapidly retreat on such issues, but the situation does (again) increase policy uncertainty.

US President Trump labelled the budget proposal trying to pass Congress a “Big Beautiful Bill.” BBB might be an unfortunate alliteration given concerns about the US credit rating. The details of the budget are constantly changing, so their effects are hard to judge, but the broad impact is to push the US further along a rising debt path. Bond investors are less than happy.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on the latest with respect to trade, tariffs, and the markets, along with previews what investors can expect in 2Q25, and considerations when it comes to positioning (after a market correction). Plus, thoughts on the current supply and demand relationship of oil.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on the latest with respect to trade, tariffs, and the markets, along with previews what investors can expect in 2Q25, and considerations when it comes to positioning (after a market correction). Plus, thoughts on the current supply and demand relationship of oil.

US President Trump urged Congress to pass the “big, beautiful” budget. An International Monetary Fund (IMF) official urged the US to consider its unsustainable debt level, which this budget will likely make worse. The redistribution effects of the tariffs, spending cuts, and tax cuts does have long term implications. In the short term, the deficit’s size is likely the focus.

The team spotlights the factors behind the recent rally in munis, along with improving technicals, and the return of inflows. We also review the House Ways & Means committee tax plan, and spotlight developments surrounding sanctuary city funding. Featured are Sudip Mukherjee, Fixed Income Strategist Americas, Jeannine Lennon, Municipal Strategist Americas, & Ted Galgano, Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Mark Axelowitz, Managing Director and UBS Private Wealth Advisor, and Solita Marcelli, Chief Investment Officer Americas, hosted a special fireside chat on the outlook for the world, economy, and value investing with Bill Ackman, Founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management, and Ryan Israel, Chief Investment Officer at Pershing Square Capital Management

The key message from yesterday’s pontification of Federal Reserve speakers was “uncertainty”. Uncertainty about policy, uncertainty about how companies and consumers would react to that uncertainty, uncertainty about second-round effects from tariffs, and so on. The result is a wait-and-see approach from the Fed. The risk is that a reactive policy may come too late to correct any economic damage from all the uncertainty.