War & Peace

Nuclear weapons sometimes sound like a throwback to another era, but they don’t just remain on stand-by. Nuclear-armed nations are investing heavily in creating more sophisticated and diverse nuclear arsenals. 

After the end of the Cold War, NATO, like the U.S. and Russia, significantly reduced its reliance on nuclear weapons and nuclear policy took a back seat. Then came the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014 and support for separatists in eastern Ukraine. Since then, there has been a renewed interest in nuclear capabilities and a focus on the alliance’s nuclear policies to make sure that NATO forces are a deterrent to Russia. 

Jessica Cox, Director of Nuclear Policy at NATO, explains to Olga and Hugh why nuclear weapons still matter to the alliance and to what extent nuclear powers like Russia pose a threat to NATO allies. They also talk about the latest nuclear technology, the alliance’s deterrence capability, and why NATO does not support the nuclear ban treaty that entered into force in January. 

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This time last year, the health services of the Italian city of Bergamo were sinking under the burden of COVID-19, as we hear from EESC member Giuseppe Guerini when the NGO Emergency stepped in to manage a field hospital set up to cope with the huge influx of patients. As we hear from medical director Oliviero Valoti, their help was providential.

This life-saving role in the crisis has earned Emergency the EESC Civil Solidarity Prize. EESC Vice-President Cillian Lohan explains the philosophy behind this one-off award while Emergency president Rossella Miccio tells us what recognition from Europe means to her organization.

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Indonesia was the first country to proclaim its independence after the Second World War, setting in motion a significant chapter of post-colonial history by doing so. In his latest book, Revolusi, Belgian cultural historian and prolific author David van Reybrouck examines the Dutch East Indies’ past and places it in a global context. A five-year project spanning over 200 interviews with living eyewitnesses, he tells Olga and Hugh why he undertook it, and how (spoiler alert: even the dating app Tinder helped him out).

In both his new book and his previous volume on Belgian colonial history, Congo: The Epic History of a People, David says his hybrid read-and-interview research technique allows him to challenge political myopia in former colonising countries and set the stage for a fuller reckoning of the way Europe has hidden the darkest pages of its colonial history.

They also discuss what David calls a new kind of evangelisation, in the form of exporting the Western model of elections-based democracy, and his case for a lottery-based system. Drawing on his book Against Elections and innovations already taking place in Ireland, Belgium, and the Netherlands, he explains what makes elections another way of empowering elites, why exporting the Western version of the ballot box elsewhere is wrong, and how an alternative model that returns policymaking to citizens might be a solution.  

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While the threat of imminent nuclear armageddon may not be at the forefront of the average person’s mind today, it was a real, globe-spanning fear not so long ago during the Cold War. Absent the treaties and confidence-building measures developed to mitigate the risk of such an event, U.S. and Soviet civil defense then was totally consumed with the daunting task of planning for the worst.

So how does a state prepare for the event of a nuclear attack? How do you ensure continuity of government in a country laid waste? How conscious are ordinary citizens of this reality and how involved are they in preparedness efforts?

Olga and Hugh debate these all-important questions from the peak of their salience to now with Edward Geist, a policy researcher at the RAND Corporation and author of the book Armageddon Insurance: Civil Defense in the United States and the Soviet Union, and Ivan Kalugin, Moscow-based researcher and Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) affiliate. Together they discuss how the two superpowers went about tackling them, from the survivability of essential infrastructure and public information campaigns to the logic of mutually assured destruction and the rumored existence of automatic launching systems known as the ‘Dead Hand’.  

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Central Asia is no exception to the protests that have emerged with renewed vigour on a global scale, a phenomenon made more visible against the backdrop of COVID-19 restrictions. 

Although the grievances driving them are context-specific, deep socio-political divisions and populist leaders are recurring themes, says Dr. Erica Marat. A professor at the U.S. National Defense University and a post-Soviet security expert, she joins Olga and Hugh to discuss what connections can be drawn between collective action and protest-policing dynamics spanning the U.S., Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan. 

Central Asian regimes bear the legacy of the Soviet era, and yet even the most autocratic among them are in constant adaptation, borrowing tactics from around the world to survive. Protest movements are evolving in the same way. Erica shares her findings of these trends, explaining the rise of ‘uncivil’ society, who the so-called “Kyrgyz Trump” is, and why Kazakhstan is a repatriation model for ISIS-affiliated citizens. 

For more information:

Explore Crisis Group’s regional analysis on our Central Asia page 

Erica Marat, The Politics of Police Reform: Society against the State in Post-Soviet Countries, Oxford University Press

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"The Grassroots View" podcast opens its second season with an episode dedicated to the new European Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF). Our four guests tell us what is the good, the bad, and the ugly in this long-awaited agreement. 

Jan Olbrycht, MEP and co-rapporteur on the MFF for the European Parliament, explains why the negotiations were so difficult and also underlines the importance of the new EU4Health program. Stefano Palmieri, president of the ECO section at the European Economic and Social Committee, sees the opportunity for modernizing the European economic and social system. He sets out the vision of civil society together with two other speakers: Gabriella Civico, member of the Steering Committee of Civil Society Europe (CSE), and Zsuzsanna Szabó, journalist and member of Res Publica Nowa Foundation. They share similar concerns about the European Union's new own resources and the weakness of the new Rule of Law conditionality mechanism.

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Thirteen years after Kosovo broke away from Serbia to become de facto independent, political inertia continues to stall the largely European-driven dialogue process aimed at reaching an understanding between the two parties and thus securing lasting stability for the region. On the back of our recently published report, “Relaunching the Kosovo-Serbia Dialogue”, Crisis Group’s Balkans expert Marko Prelec joins Olga and Hugh to examine why that is. 

Taking a step back from the state of talks today, Marko lays out the historical context for the current impasse, and what the obstacles have been to changing the uneasy status quo. Beyond leaving the door wide open for the dispute to escalate, Kosovo’s unresolved status has tainted domestic political discourse and continues to bar both it and Serbia from accessing the European Union and otherwise participating in the international community.

Failure to breathe new life into talks also comes at a human cost, he explains, having met people on both sides whose lives are curtailed by mutual non-recognition. Does the new year bear any signs that Pristina and Belgrade are willing to make the compromises necessary to resolve their dispute?

Tune in to find out!

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Ankara’s assertive foreign policy choices delight many at home. But they can puzzle and anger its counterparts as Turkey experiments with increasingly militarised postures in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, the South Caucasus, and the ongoing wars in Libya and Syria.

Ambassador Selim Yenel, Turkish ambassador to the EU until 2017 and now president of the Istanbul-based think-tank Global Relations Forum, joins Olga and Hugh to help make sense of what is driving Ankara in a changing world. Together they dive into the making of regional power, the costs of undercutting dialogue with hard-power moves, the imperative of undergoing reforms at home, and what can be done to revive Turkey’s EU accession process. 

Arguing that Turkey’s recent shifts have been more reactive than proactive, Ambassador Yenel urges all sides to cool down rhetoric and calls for a return to more empathetic diplomacy. Even if NATO member Ankara has made mistakes – for instance in the purchase of S-400 ground-to-air missiles from Russia – he says others have too, and thus Turkey deserves to be met halfway.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s Turkey page and visit the Global Relations Forum website.

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With the international system in major flux as we turn the page on 2020, Ambassador Gérard Araud believes one main thing is clear: 2021 opens a new, more dangerous chapter.

A Crisis Group trustee who represented France on the world stage for over three decades, most recently as ambassador to the United States (2014-2019), Araud gives Olga Oliker and Hugh Pope a decidedly skeptical take on the state of power politics, describing destabilizing international rivalry, leaderlessness, and descent toward the law of the jungle. 

Together they also touch on why Brexit has only just begun its destructive path, how the impact of COVID-19 is accelerating the surge in nationalism testing Western societies, and how the interlocking crises in the Eastern Mediterranean reveal where the European Union’s strengths and weaknesses really lie. 

Ambassador Araud does highlight one hope: that the urgency of transnational risks, particularly on the question of climate change, could propel a multilateral coalescence around ways to address them. 

For more information, read Ambassador Gérard Araud’s weekly column in Le Point.

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“I think I should kill you”. 

So began one especially fraught encounter in Hugh Pope’s critically acclaimed memoir, Dining with Al Qaeda, now out in an updated edition. He joins Olga Oliker as co-host-turned-guest for this week’s episode to reflect on how his three decades of reporting in the broader Middle East remain relevant for Western readers grappling to understand it today. 

Olga and Hugh then reflect on the year that was and how COVID-19 became a phenomenon that has both disrupted life as we knew it and accelerated broader geopolitical trends. While physical borders have been reinforced and personal horizons shrunk to the here and now, the unprecedented reality of lockdown in a digital era has also allowed for a reimagined sense of identity and community. 

What big questions remain to be unpacked on War & Peace in 2021?

Tune in to find out!

For more information:

Visit www.hughpope.com to find out more about Dining with Al Qaeda: Making Sense of the Middle East

See our The Covid-19 Pandemic and Deadly Conflict page

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