Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on the Russian war in Ukraine, from Crisis Group's global podcast Hold Your Fire!

On Thursday 24 February, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared the launch of, in his words, a “special military operation” in Ukraine. Russian airstrikes on military and other infrastructure near Ukrainian cities were followed by massive troop advances from the north, east and south. Despite fierce Ukrainian resistance, Russian forces have reached the capital Kyiv, where fighting rages on the city’s streets. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called on all Ukrainians to arm themselves to defend their homeland. Notwithstanding months of warnings, as perhaps as many as 200,000 Russian troops have massed at the Ukrainian border, the Kremlin’s invasion has left Europe, and indeed much of the world, in shock. It seems inevitable that it will exact a terrible human toll. 

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood and guest host, Crisis Group’s president & CEO Comfort Ero are joined by Olga Oliker, our Europe & Central Asia director and War & Peace co-host, to discuss Russia’s aggression. They look at what’s happening on the ground, what the next few days could bring and what happens if the Zelenskyy government falls and the Russians try to install a pliant regime in Kyiv. They talk about the mood in Moscow and reactions to Russia’s invasion from around the world, including in China. They also talk through the Western response – the extent and impact of sanctions, what a NATO build-up would entail and whether Western powers should back Ukrainian resistance and what that might involve. They discuss the impact of Russia’s invasion on wider global affairs.  

For more of Crisis Group’s analysis, visit our Ukraine regional page, and make sure to read our recent statement ‘ War in Europe: Responding to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine’. Comfort and Richard also discuss the Ukraine crisis in their piece, ‘10 Conflicts To Watch in 2022’.

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The year 2022 looks set to be a challenging year for Europe. The EU must reckon with growing risks of conflict close to home: from a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine to rising ethnic tensions in the Western Balkans, the EU must brace itself for new wars on its doorstep. Elsewhere, deadly fighting and humanitarian disasters continue to rage across the globe – from Afghanistan to Ethiopia to Venezuela – and threaten to claim many more lives.

This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker is joined by Crisis Group’s Senior EU Analyst  Lisa Musiol and Head of EU Affairs Giuseppe Famà  to run through Crisis Group’s 2022 EU Watch List. They discuss eleven conflicts across the globe in which EU action or support could help prevent violence from escalating and humanitarian emergencies from worsening. They assess the successes and failures of the EU’s existing foreign policy toolkit and ask how it can adapt its strategy to contend with a world of mounting great power competition.

Make sure to check out Crisis Group’s 2022 EU Watch List in full to learn more about the ten countries to consider in 2022 for early action and relief by the EU and its member states.

This episode of War & Peace was produced with the support of Stiftung Mercator

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The president of the European Commision, Ursula Von Der Leyen, has vowed to create a more “geopolitical commission”, ramping up Europe’s external involvement and staking out an increasingly prominent place on the world stage. Though it has at times struggled to forge a united policy, the EU should not be underestimated: as the world's third largest economy, the bloc has numerous tools at its disposal with which to exert its influence. Indeed, the EU already plays a key role in preventing conflicts around the world and improving prospects for peace. 

This week on War & Peace, Olya Oliker and Hugh Pope are joined by Hilde Hardeman, the director general for EU Publications and former head of the Service for Foreign Policy Instruments. They take stock of the challenges and opportunities facing Europe as geopolitical tensions at its borders reach boiling point and discuss how the EU’s foreign policy toolkit has evolved over time. They also talk about the EU’s conflict prevention strategies, its drive to put “green diplomacy” at the centre of its foreign policy, and Hilde’s commitment to combatting disinformation around the world. 

Make sure to check out Crisis Group’s 2022 EU Watch List on the ten countries to consider in 2022 for early action and relief by the EU and its member states.

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In early January 2022, an unexpected wave of protests swept across Kazakhstan. Initially provoked by a doubling of the price of liquified petroleum gas (LPG), the protests rapidly grew more political as they spread throughout the country, encompassing a wide range of interests and demands. President Qasym Joomart Tokaev responded by shutting down the internet as his police detained over 12,000 people. Over 200 people died in the ensuing violence, and Tokaev called for help from his allies in the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), even as he reshuffled his government. As the dust settles, Kazakhs hope for reform, fear more crackdowns, and seek clarity about what was behind the violence and what the future holds for their country. 

This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Hugh Pope are joined directly from Almaty by Nurseit Niyazbekov, assistant professor of international relations at Almaty’s KIMEP University and an on-the-ground witness of the protests (see below for a link to footage he shot the night of 5-6 January). They discuss the unrest’s initial triggers, the protests’ rapid spread, the government’s crackdown and rumours of a power struggle between the country’s ruling elites. They also talk about parallels with other post-Soviet states, Tokaev’s successful request for foreign military support from the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), and the possibility of a geopolitical realignment in the region. 

For more information, make sure to explore Crisis Group’s Kazakhstan page and read our latest Q&A ‘Behind the Unrest in Kazakhstan’. You can also check out Nurseit’s incredible footage of events in Almaty here.

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A wave of democratic experimentation is defying conventional wisdom about electoral politics and good governance. Randomly selected citizens’ assemblies are becoming a popular tool for tackling complex policy issues. Ireland, France and Belgium, among others, have turned to citizens’ assemblies in recent years, often with considerable success. Proponents of this kind of random selection, also known as sortition, argue that it could usher in a new era of inclusive governance, an attractive prospect in an age of mounting inequity and public disillusionment with politicians. Still, doubts remain. For one, citizens’ assemblies have almost exclusively been trialled in wealthy Western countries. 

This week on War & Peace, Olya Oliker and Hugh Pope are joined by Brett Hennig, president of the Sortition Foundation and author of The End of Politicians: Time for a Real Democracy. They discuss the basic precepts of sortition, the mechanics of setting up a representative citizens’ assembly, and their potential relationship with established political institutions. They talk about whether random selection could rebuild faith in democracy and how to ensure consensual and informed deliberation. They ask whether citizens’ assemblies are singularly suited for Western democracies and what role they could play in healing societal divisions in conflict-stricken states.

To find out more about Brett’s work make sure to check out his book The End of Politicians: Time for a Real Democracy and the Sortition Foundation’s website.

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In 2020, Belarusian dictator Aleksandr Lukashenka cracked down on protesters challenging the results of an election in which he had claimed resounding victory, and on the opposition in general. The European Union (EU) refused to recognise Lukashenka’s regime and imposed far-reaching sanctions. Relations between Belarus and its Western neighbours have since continued to spiral downward. In the summer of 2021, thousands of people, mainly from the Middle East, began gathering at the country’s border with Poland and the Baltic states, hoping to enter the EU. Incensed governments accused Lukashenka of ‘weaponising’ migrants by facilitating access to the border, and responded with a fifth round of sanctions. Lukashenka has so far refused to back down, turning ever more to Moscow for support, even as Russia’s relations with the West continue their own rapid decline and Russian troops mass near Ukraine. 

This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Hugh Pope are joined by Yauheni Preiherman, the Founder and Director of the Minsk Dialogue Council on International Relations. They discuss the realities of the border crisis and Lukashenka’s motives in fomenting it, asking whether his gamble has backfired. They also review Belarus’ foreign policy trajectory, its past overtures toward the West and its complicated relationship with Moscow. They talk about regional implications of the standoff with Europe and assess what Belarus tells us about how small states can and cannot navigate increasingly belligerent great power competition. 

For more of Crisis Group’s analysis make sure to explore our Belarus page and check out our latest ‘Behind the Frictions at the Belarus-Poland Border’. 

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The threat posed by nuclear weapons is changing and policy-makers are struggling to keep up. As the Non-Proliferation Treaty review conference approaches, it is clear that the nuclear security field needs a new way of thinking. Nuclear-weapon states are expanding their arsenals and non-proliferation efforts have faltered: it is estimated that Tehran’s nuclear breakout time is now less than a month away, following Donald Trump’s unilateral withdrawal from the Iran deal in 2018 that had extended that timeline to 12 months.

This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Special guest-host Ali Vaez, Crisis Group’s Iran Project Director, are joined by Dr Emma Belcher, President of Ploughshares Fund, to ask whether and how bold innovation can solve some of these intractable challenges. They discuss the ways in which policy debates have, or have not, evolved, the continued dominance of deterrence theory and the wave of new, diverse and creative thinkers challenging stale ideas. They also discuss the resumption of negotiations between Iran and the P5+1, prospects for other non-proliferation efforts and hopes for a nuclear-weapon-free future.

Make sure to learn more about Dr Belcher’s work at Ploughshares Fund by visiting ploughsares.org and listening to Ploughshares podcast Press the Button.

This episode is part of our continuing War & Peace sub-series on nuclear weapons and strategy. Click on our special coverage page here to listen to more episodes and benefit from a range of perspectives about everything from deterrence to civil defense to nuclear-weapons-free zones.

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Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on the Russian troop buildup on the Ukrainian border, from Crisis Group's global podcast Hold Your Fire!.

Olga Oliker, our War & Peace host and Crisis Group’s Europe and Central Asia director, and Oleg Ignatov, senior Russia analyst, join Hold Your Fire! host and Interim President Richard Atwood to discuss what led to the crisis. These include the move forward – for the second time this year – of 100,000 Russian troops, the breakdown of a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian security forces, and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s increasingly testy statements about Ukraine’s relations with NATO member states. Ukrainian officials warn of a potential Russian invasion; Western leaders warn of severe consequences if that happens. 

Olga, Oleg and Richard look at what Putin may hope to gain with the army deployments, whether Moscow is really prepared to use force, what a military intervention might entail and how Ukraine and its Western partners might respond. They also look at what Western powers could do to deter an attack.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Ukraine and Russia pages.

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On 10 November 2020, a Russian-brokered ceasefire put an end to a devastating war in Nagorno-Karabakh that killed some 7,000 people. But it did not bring peace. The year since has seen the situation grow increasingly uneasy. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan have fortified their military positions along the state border and continue to exchange deadly fire: mid-November saw the worst escalation of fighting since the war’s end. Meanwhile, as Russian peacekeepers patrol in Nagorno-Karabakh, the region’s political status remains contested and talks are intermittent.

This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Hugh Pope are joined by Olesya Vartanyan, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for the South Caucasus. They discuss the recent violent flare-ups along the line of contact, the roles – planned and unplanned – played by Russian peacekeepers, Turkey’s role and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. They also discuss prospects for negotiation and ask what can be done to put an end to post-Soviet Eurasia’s longest-lasting conflict. 

For more information, make sure to explore Crisis Group’s Nagorno-Karabakh page and to check out Olesya’s recent op-ed for the Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) ‘A Risky Role for Russian Peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh’.

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After sixteen years at Europe’s helm, Angela Merkel is stepping down from power. The federal election in September also marked an end to the long-term hold her political party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), had had over German politics. Merkel’s likely successor, Olaf Scholz, is now looking to forge a “traffic light coalition” between his Social Democratic Party (the SPD, whose trademark color is red), the Greens and the Liberals (yellow). While Scholz and his allies have made ambitious commitments to modernise Germany, it remains unclear what, if anything, this portends for foreign policy. Foreign affairs have so far taken the back seat during coalition negotiations, eclipsed by domestic concerns. Still, Germany’s new chancellor will be forced, however reluctantly, to contend with tremendous geopolitical shifts on the continent and further away. 

This week on War & Peace, Hugh and Olga are joined by Jana Puglierin, Head of the European Council on Foreign Relations’ Berlin Office, to make sense of Germany’s future under a new chancellor. They discuss the deprioritisation of foreign policy, possible sticking points between coalition members, the future of the transatlantic alliance with the United States, and increasingly bitter relations with Russia, Turkey and China. They ask whether Scholz’s chancellorship will chart a new course for Europe, and how Germany and the continent are poised to contend with a world of great-power competition. 

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s work on Europe and its neighbours by checking out the regional pages on the left hand side of our website. You can follow Jana’s work on the ECFR website. 

If you want to hear more about Merkel’s legacy, make sure to check out EuroPod's latest podcast, available in four languages. 

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