Who needs nuclear weapons when you have the Strait of Hormuz? While ordinary Iranians are far worse off than on February 28th – when the US and Israel launched a war that killed the Supreme Leader on day one – the Islamic Republic has since shown it has massive leverage in the war and is betting that Donald Trump’s threats of invasion are empty.

Iran's leadership can now paint US president Donald Trump as the villain after he threatened a 20 percent toll on commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday – though he has since walked the toll back. With missiles flying across the Gulf and as the price of crude climbs to a four-week high, we ask broader questions: why this cycle of war, talks, televised signing ceremonies and then return to hostilities? Are we just spectators in this performative drama? How can the cycle be broken?

Produced by François Picard, Andrew Hilliar, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Juliette Brown.