Lykken on Lending

Weekly AI Update with Pavan Agarwal: The AI Contagion Warning: How the Dollar-Yen Unwind and Bitcoin Margin Calls Threaten OpenAI’s Valuation


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In this week’s AI Update, we dive into the rapidly shifting landscape behind today’s sky-high AI valuations and explore why macroeconomic forces may be creating unseen systemic risks across the tech ecosystem. Pavan Agarwal breaks down how the unwinding of the dollar-yen trade, leveraged Bitcoin positions, and hyperscalers’ overreliance on overpriced NVIDIA hardware are converging to put pressure on companies like OpenAI—potentially triggering a broader contagion that could impact banks, data-center REITs, and long-term AI investment flows. This episode uncovers how tightly interconnected global markets, digital assets, and AI infrastructure really are—and what leaders in mortgage and fintech should be watching next.

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Lykken on LendingBy David Lykken

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