Today we had the pleasure of hosting the team from Cornerstone Government Affairs for an engaging discussion on energy policy and the upcoming US Presidential Election with Jack Belcher, Principal, John Sandell, Principal, and Sarah Venuto, Principal and Counsel. Cornerstone is an independent bipartisan consulting firm specializing in federal and state government relations, public affairs, political and grant consulting, and business advisory services. Jack, John and Sarah are seasoned experts in navigating the complexities of Washington DC. Jack has over 30 years of experience in energy and energy policy and previously held roles as Manager of Regulatory Affairs and Policy at Shell and Staff Director for the US House Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources. John is an expert in tax policy and formerly served the members of the US House Committee on Ways and Means. Sarah previously served as Director of the Office of External Affairs at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Senior Advisor and Chief Counsel to Senator Joe Manchin, and Democratic Staff Director for the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. We were thrilled to connect with the Cornerstone team to explore this timely and important topic.
 
Our conversation centered on a report Cornerstone published entitled “A Guide to Forecasting Energy Policy In The Next White House: Trump V. Harris” (linked here). Jack first provides background on Cornerstone’s history and growth into the largest independent government relations firm in DC. We touch on the implications of the Chevron Deference case on regulatory agencies, its significance for future energy policy and regulation, and how it will impact Congress and the need for additional technical expertise there. We cover the complexities of Presidential Administration changes and challenges of transitioning political appointments, the future of the Inflation Reduction Act under different administrations, and efforts to streamline permitting and infrastructure development. Jack, John and Sarah offer their insights on how a Trump or Harris administration might approach energy policy and rising energy prices for businesses and consumers. We discuss areas of bipartisan support including nuclear energy, tariffs, alternative fuels, and competition with China, how the next administration might balance state-level initiatives with national policy, the upcoming 2025 Tax Debate led by the Ways and Means Committee, and much more. It was an insightful discussion and we want to thank Jack, John and Sarah for sharing their perspectives and time with us on a busy day in DC.

Mike Bradley opened the conversation by highlighting that broader equity markets were down Tuesday driven by JPMorgan Chase’s cautious comments. In the bond market, the 10-year U.S. bond yield traded at ~3.65, down 20-30bps in recent weeks. The U.S. 2yr/10yr yield bond spread flipped back to positive after two years of inversion, this type of flip after a lengthy period of backwardation tends to precede recessions. He noted the importance of this week’s economic reports with August CPI & PPI and Initial Jobless Claims reporting over the next couple of days. On crude oil, he also shared a chart of the WTI crude oil curve and noted that the curve structure had flattened out through 2035, primarily due to concerns over global/China oil demand after being in steep backwardation over the prior 3mo, 6mo & 12mo periods. He concluded by mentioning that crude oil prices were technically oversold, with traders remaining bearish but waiting for significant changes in global oil demand to unwind net short bets.

Jeff Tillery built on Mike’s comments and noted the demand concerns and OPEC’s spare capacity reducing upside optionality for long-term investors. Brett Rampal highlighted a significant