If there’s one thing that’s certain about the pandemic, it’s uncertainty. So how do economists and investors make forecasts in this environment? Our latest episode explains why drifting into epidemiology has become an occupational hazard when it comes to forecasting the macro-economy and markets.

Our hosts Stephanie Kelly and Paul Diggle are joined once again by Jeremy Lawson, Chief Economist and head of the ASI Research Institute. Together they discuss the complex process of economic forecasting, and explain the additional uncertainties introduced by Covid-19 that mean vaccine rollout and lockdown  stringency are important economic considerations.
 
Part 1 focuses on how the pandemic has changed the way economists do their forecasts, and describes a framework for integrating vaccine rollout and lockdown stringency into the outlook for economies and markets. 
 
Part 2 considers the outlook for vaccine rollout and expectations for re-opening, as well as the longer term impacts of the crisis.