Another deadline day, another ultimatum, another surprise turn from the US president. The same Donald Trump who may or may not send ground troops to try to secure the Strait of Hormuz is now claiming that his administration is talking with the Iranians, thus holding off on hitting critical infrastructure. Trump's messaging since the start of this war has been keeping friends and foes alike guessing. That's in stark contrast to his Israeli allies, who seem to be embracing a fight many of its leaders have been dreaming of for decades. 

Israel, too, has a larger-than-life populist leader who's changed the course of his country's history. Their interests overlap, but remain distinct. A case in point is Israel's rush to prepare for an eventual ground operation in Lebanon. So who's calling the shots? Trump or Benjamin Netanyahu? Whose idea was this war?

And who takes the blame once the guns go silent on a campaign that's failed to rally traditional allies, punished civilians by laying waste to critical infrastructure and triggered a worldwide energy crisis?

What prospects lie ahead for Trump, his MAGA movement, Netanyahu and the state of Israel?

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.