Why the Next Financial Crisis Is Already Here | Michael Howell | Two Blokes Trading Ep. 13

In this episode of Two Blokes Trading, we speak with Michael Howell, founder of CrossBorder Capital and author of the “Capital Wars” Substack, to unpack the real driver behind today’s market turmoil: a growing global liquidity crisis. Michael explains why liquidity, not just interest rates, is the engine powering asset prices and why the global economy is now deep into a debt refinancing cycle that could trigger major funding stress.

From repo market volatility and Fed balance sheet tightening to rising systemic risk in sovereign debt markets, Michael shares the signals smart traders need to watch and how to trade ahead of the curve. We also explore why gold, Bitcoin, and other inflation hedges are flashing warning signs and what happens when central banks are forced to restart quantitative easing.

This is not another macro overview. It is a deep, data-driven discussion on the structural cracks in global liquidity. Whether you are a retail trader or managing larger portfolios, this episode will change how you read the markets.

What You’ll Learn in This Episode:

Michael Howell explains why global liquidity, not interest rates, is the real driver of financial market trends and why the next crisis may already be unfolding. You will learn how more than 80 percent of capital markets activity is now focused on debt refinancing rather than investment and why this shift increases systemic risk.

We explore the mounting pressure in repo markets, the importance of monitoring SOFR spreads, and how reduced liquidity from the Federal Reserve could lead to disruptions in funding markets. Michael also breaks down the risks posed by trade fails, the structural liquidity gap in US bank reserves, and why hedge funds are playing a critical role as marginal buyers of US Treasuries.

The episode also examines long-term forecasts for gold and Bitcoin as barometers of monetary risk, and what traders can learn from shifts in central bank behavior. You will come away with a stronger understanding of liquidity cycles, how they differ from traditional business cycles, and how to position yourself before major market turns.

Jonathan Farrelly – Host

Jonathan started his trading journey over 15 years ago, learning from some of the best institutional traders in the world. Over the last 9 years, Jonathan has taught thousands of retail traders how to successfully navigate the financial markets. Jonathan has evolved Two Blokes Trading with new technologies to offer traders a fully immersive experience. His ethos is built on transparency with the goal of helping new and experienced traders reach their financial goals.

About Michael Howell:

Michael Howell is the founder and CEO of CrossBorder Capital, a London-based research and investment firm specialising in capital flows and global liquidity analysis. With more than 30 years of experience in financial markets, Michael developed a data-driven liquidity research methodology during his time at Salomon Brothers and Baring Securities.

He launched CrossBorder Capital in 1996 and has since advised institutional clients, hedge funds, and policymakers around the world. He also authors the Capital Wars Substack, which offers clear, accessible insights on liquidity, macroeconomics, and capital trends. Michael is a regular speaker at financial conferences and is regarded as one of the leading experts on how liquidity drives risk and opportunity in global markets.

Micheals Website: https://www.crossbordercapital.com

This episode is sponsored by our partnered broker, Forex.com.

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