Should active nutrition brands get ready for a “New Year, New Me” pull-forward effect? In the active nutrition industry, the first quarter is generally its version of the Super Bowl. There’s a front-loaded seasonality to the active nutrition industry that usually sets the tone for how well the active nutrition brand’s year is going to shape up. This is because almost half of all adult Americans (~120 million) make some type of weight loss or dietary/exercise regimen New Years Resolution goal each year. It's no secret that Americans struggle with their weight with latest CDC numbers stating 42% of American adults are obese. So, combine these grim health trends and popularity of the New Years Resolution weight loss goal with the fact that interest in supplements never been higher in history, and one might expect this to add up to a sales spike for the weight management market over the last few years. Not quite. In fact, the $2 billion weight management category has struggled over recently (especially in 2020 and 2021). So, will 2022Q1 be any different? Many industry analysts like myself have been talking about 2022Q1 as one of the biggest weight-loss seasons ever (weight loss supercycle). But should active nutrition brands be waiting until January 1st to attract these "New Year, New Me" consumers? The U.S. consumer market has been conditioned over the “COVID-19 Effect” period to buy early and not wait for out-of-stock items to be replenished. Does that mean it will create a strong pull-forward effect in December of 2021 for the 2022Q1 period? 

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