February 05, 2025

WM Phoenix Open picks!

36 minutes

Will Doctor gives you the sharpest card for the WM Phoenix Open.

-Top 6 names on odds board -1 matchup -1 t20 -2 outrights -Sleeper, FRP, 2 lineups, scoring

-Best bet For more on the world of golf, follow Doc on X @drmedia59

Recap of Pebble Beach Pro-Am (0:39 - 32:26)Rory McIlroy’s Dominance

McIlroy secured his 27th PGA Tour win with a commanding performance.

He finished 5-under on the final nine holes, with birdies at 10, 12, and 15, and a momentum-shifting eagle on the 14th.

Led the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and was top 10 in putting.

Averaged 336 yards per drive (leading the field), scaling back to irons strategically in the final round.

Will Doctor highlights McIlroy’s shift to a conservative approach in his final round, citing Jamie Kennedy (Golf Digest) for insightful questions on McIlroy's tactics.

Scottie Scheffler’s Performance

Finished T-9 despite high expectations.

Was above average in all statistical categories, with a final-round 67.

Second round (70) cost him ground, but overall solid performance.

Tom Kim’s Near Miss

Finished T-7, cashing a top-10 ticket.

Struggled on par-5s, a key reason for missing a podium finish.

Big mistake: bogey on the par-5 6th, where he hit into the Pacific Ocean.

His slow play is a concern heading into Phoenix Open, especially with rowdy fans at TPC Scottsdale.

WM Phoenix Open – Picks & PredictionsTop Contenders & Betting AnalysisScottie Scheffler (+305)

Back-to-back WM Phoenix Open winner (2022, 2023).

T-3 last year.

Improved putting over recent months.

Not betting outright but looking for a live number.

Justin Thomas (15:1)

Driving accuracy concerns.

Has played well in Phoenix but struggles to win due to tee-shot inconsistencies.

Passing on JT outright.

Hideki Matsuyama (17:1)

2-time Phoenix Open winner (2016, 2017).

Struggled with driving accuracy in recent events.

Third consecutive tournament, raising fatigue concerns.

Sungjae Im (22:1)

Has 2 top-10 finishes at Phoenix Open.

However, below-average iron play in 2 of last 3 starts.

Has not truly contended at this event.

Sam Burns (25:1)

Back-to-back top-10s at WM Phoenix Open.

Struggling with approach play in recent months.

Passing on Burns this week.

Tom Kim (33:1)

Slow play may be an issue in a loud environment.

T-17 last year, finished 11 shots back.

Not enough value at 33:1, so passing on Kim.

Best Bets & Sleeper PicksMatchup Bets

Rico Hoey over Thriston Lawrence (-106)

Hoey: Great total driver & putter on overseeded greens.

Lawrence: Poor driving accuracy & distance.

Hoey should outperform Lawrence in these conditions.

Top PicksKurt Kitayama

Win: 66:1

Top-20: +240

Strengths: Elite driver, strong recent putting.

Recent results at WM Phoenix Open:

T-23 in 2023.

T-8 in 2022.

Why bet? Improved driving accuracy recently, well-rested after missing Farmers.

Gary Woodland (Sleeper Pick)

Win: 115:1

Top-20: +350

Past Winner (2018).

Ball-striking back to form with coach Randy Smith.

Putting showed improvement at Pebble Beach.

Low risk, high reward pick.

Daily Fantasy Picks (DraftKings & PGA Tour Lineup)DraftKings Lineup ($50K Budget)

Kurt Kitayama ($8.9K)

Luke Clanton ($8.3K)

Si Woo Kim ($8K)

Matt Fitzpatrick ($7.7K)

Charlie Hoffman ($7.2K)

Gary Woodland ($7.1K)

PGA Tour Fantasy Lineup

Starters: Kitayama (Captain), Woodland, Clanton, Si Woo Kim.

Bench: Hoffman, Fitzpatrick.

Final Predictions

Winning Score: -18

Best Bet: Kurt Kitayama Top-20 (+240)

First-Round Leader Bet: Scottie Scheffler (Top-5 after Round 1) at +320.

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