World Review with Ivo Daalder

China, Iraq, and Brexit: three shifts with global consequences

Ivo Daalder is joined by Ken Moriyasu, Carla Anne Robbins, and Giles Whittell to examine the strategy and symbolism behind three major international stories. The panel discusses Xi Jinping’s Washington visit and how the language around World War II could support Beijing’s preferred historical narrative. They consider whether the White House understood the significance of its messaging, and what the summit reveals about the wider U.S.-China relationship. The conversation then turns to the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq. The guests explore whether the move benefits Iran, what it could mean for Iraq’s security and the fight against ISIS, and how American allies might interpret Washington’s changing commitments. Finally, they look at Britain’s revived Brexit debate. With economic growth and trade increasingly central to the discussion, the panel considers what renewed EU ties could mean for the UK—and what rejoining would require.

In this episode:

• Xi’s visit and the politics of historical narratives
• U.S.-China competition and strategic messaging
• The consequences of the U.S. exit from Iraq
• Iran’s influence, Iraqi security, and the ISIS threat
• Britain’s changing debate about Brexit and EU membership
• What these stories suggest about U.S. global priorities

Guests:

 Ken Moriyasu, Carla Anne Robbins, and Giles Whittell

Key Topics

• What Trump’s UN speech and meeting with Xi tell us about the current state of diplomacy
• How seriously to take Europe’s warnings about Russian threats
• The challenges NATO faces in deterring—and responding to—gray-zone attacks
• Whether Germany’s far-right gains foreshadow a wider European trend
• Why cultural identity and distrust of established parties are reshaping politics

Links

Karen DeYoung - https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/karen-deyoung/

Steve Erlanger - https://www.nytimes.com/by/steven-erlanger

Jamie Dettmer - https://www.politico.eu/staff/jamie-dettmer-3/

Ivo Daalder - https://www.ivodaalder.com/

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — belfercenter.org
World Review with Ivo Daalder — belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

Key Topics

• Martin Wolf argues that the Fed’s move is politically significant as much as economically justified, because Donald Trump’s demand for 1 percent rates is, in his words, “insane.”
• Missy Ryan adds that Trump’s economic focus seems centered less on inflation itself and more on the stock market and the AI boom, especially with the midterms looming.
• Peter Spiegel links Fed policy to the broader debt and tech borrowing picture, arguing that AI spending may be helping prop up markets even as it pushes rates higher.
• The panel debates whether higher rates can really fight a global inflation environment shaped by war, oil prices, and supply shocks.
• On Canada and Europe, Peter Spiegel says Mark Carney’s approach is partly symbolic but politically powerful, since it has helped rally Canadian patriotism against Trump.
• Missy Ryan stresses that Canada’s stance is rooted in sovereignty and values, but also constrained by how tightly integrated the Canadian and U.S. economies remain.
• Martin Wolf argues Europe is in a very different position from Canada because most of its trade is internal, and it could survive even a major rupture with the United States.
• The discussion returns repeatedly to the question of permanence: is Trump’s approach a temporary disruption, or a long-term reordering of U.S. alliances and trade policy?
• In the Saudi segment, Missy Ryan describes the Houthi conflict and the Iran war as a destabilizing force that has widened old regional fractures and exposed U.S. limits.
• Peter Spiegel raises the possibility that Gulf states may respond by diversifying security ties and increasing their own defense spending, even if China is not yet able to replace the United States.
• Martin Wolf suggests that if the United States becomes unreliable, regional powers may eventually move closer to Iran and a broader regional balance of power, rather than count on Washington.
• The episode closes on oil prices, with Wolf arguing that while the market could still worsen, it has so far adjusted better than expected and may not reach the catastrophic levels many feared.

Links

Missy Ryan - https://www.theatlantic.com/author/missy-ryan/

Martin Wolf - https://www.ft.com/martin-wolf

Peter Spiegel - https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/peter-spiegel/

Ivo Daalder - https://www.ivodaalder.com/

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — belfercenter.org
World Review with Ivo Daalder — belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

Key Topics

• Nicholas Burns recounts being the new U.S. ambassador to NATO when the attacks happened and describes the urgent push to invoke Article V for the first time in NATO history.
• Meghan L. O’Sullivan explains how 9/11 helped push a generation of foreign policy professionals into government and public service, including her own move from Brookings to the State Department.
• Juliette Kayyem recalls being on maternity leave and on an Amtrak train to New York when the attacks unfolded.
• The group discusses how 9/11 changed the American national security mindset from treating terrorism as a niche issue to making it a central organizing concern.
• O’Sullivan breaks down the evolution of the phrases “you’re with us or against us” and “the war on terror,” arguing that both became more problematic over time than they were at the moment they were first used.
• Burns emphasizes that NATO allies were unified immediately after the attacks and that Canada was the first country to raise the idea of invoking Article V.
• The guests contrast the diplomatic and alliance-based response to 9/11 with the later turn toward preemption, especially in Afghanistan and Iraq.
• O’Sullivan explains why the Iraq invasion cannot be understood apart from the post-9/11 atmosphere, even if the Iraq-9/11 connection itself was not proven.
• Kayyem describes the creation of homeland security as a major structural shift, from fragmented local and federal systems to a more centralized architecture with FEMA, the FBI, state homeland security advisors, and fusion-style coordination.
• The panel argues that domestic terrorism, political violence, technology, and radicalization now pose different challenges than the international terrorism focus that dominated the years after 9/11.
• Burns warns that the State Department and broader foreign policy bureaucracy have been weakened, arguing that America needs experienced diplomats and allies more than ever.
• The conversation closes with a shared lesson: America is strongest when it relies on friends, coordinates across institutions, and resists making the military the sole organizing principle of foreign policy.

Links

Juliette Kayyem - https://www.hks.harvard.edu/faculty/juliette-kayyem

Meghan L. O'Sullivan - https://www.hks.harvard.edu/faculty/meghan-osullivan

Nicholas Burns - https://www.hks.harvard.edu/faculty/nicholas-burns

Ivo Daalder - https://www.ivodaalder.com/

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — belfercenter.org
World Review with Ivo Daalder — belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

Key Topics

• The Venezuela oil deal is framed as a huge geopolitical gamble, with claims of 65 billion barrels and a U.S. stake in a private Venezuelan company.
• Nahal Toosi explains why the deal is surrounded by legal, constitutional, and practical doubts, including questions about infrastructure, financing, and corruption.
• Alex Ward argues the deal reflects a Trump-era foreign policy that treats oil and regime change as spoils of victory, not just strategic assets.
• Shashank Joshi notes that Europeans see echoes of earlier resource anxieties, from Greenland to the Falklands, and worry about a broader collapse of principle in U.S. policy.
• The panel raises the possibility that the Venezuela arrangement could create incentives to delay democratic transition and keep an anti-democratic regime in place.
  The military segment focuses on the strain caused by extended deployments in the Middle East, especially the impact on munitions stockpiles, carrier availability, and long-term maintenance.
• Joshi cites the depletion of Patriot interceptors and the ripple effects in Ukraine, where reduced interceptor capacity may be affecting defense against Russian missile attacks.
• Toosi warns that the U.S. is simultaneously damaging its diplomatic, development, trade, and military advantages, leaving Congress and Pentagon leadership slow to respond.
• On Russia, Alex Ward says Ratcliffe’s Moscow trip appears to be both a warning and a broader attempt to preserve a back-channel with Russian intelligence.
• Joshi and Toosi discuss Russian hybrid risk, including the concern that Moscow may test NATO without triggering a classic Article 5-style response.

Links

Nahal Toosi - https://www.politico.com/staff/nahal-toosi

Alexander Ward - https://www.wsj.com/news/author/alexander-ward

Shashank Joshi - https://mediadirectory.economist.com/people/shashank-joshi/

Ivo Daalder - https://www.ivodaalder.com/

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — belfercenter.org
World Review with Ivo Daalder — belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

Key Topicas

Links

Prashant Rao - https://www.semafor.com/author/prashant-rao

Matina Stevis-Gridneff - https://www.nytimes.com/by/matina-stevis-gridneff

Anton La Guardia - https://mediadirectory.economist.com/people/anton-la-guardia/

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — belfercenter.org

Key Topics

Links

Show Notes

In this episode, Ivo Daalder is joined by Steve Erlanger, Christopher Miller, and Carla Anne Robbins for a wide-ranging conversation about three tests of U.S. power: Iran, Ukraine, and Cuba. The discussion begins with Iran, where the panel explores whether Tehran is outlasting Washington in a long war of patience and why sanctions and military threats may not produce the outcome the U.S. wants.The conversation then turns to Ukraine, where listeners hear how Ukrainians are adapting to modern warfare, why air defense remains critical, and how shortages of Patriot interceptors are reshaping the battlefield. The panel also examines the uncertainty around U.S. support and the broader lessons Kyiv is teaching the West about decentralized warfare.Finally, the episode looks at Cuba, where pressure, collapse talk, and regime-change logic collide with the reality of blackouts, shortages, and no clear post-collapse plan. Across all three cases, the central question remains: what happens when the U.S. escalates before deciding what success actually looks like?

Iran and Oman appear to have reached a tentative agreement over the Strait of Hormuz, but is it a genuine diplomatic breakthrough or simply a pause in a much larger geopolitical conflict? At the same time, Europe is grappling with renewed migration pressures in Ceuta and record-breaking heat that underscores the growing political and economic consequences of climate change.

Host Giles Whittell is joined by Adam Cancryn (CNN), Shona Murray (Euronews), and Kim Willsher (The Observer) to connect these stories and explore what they reveal about the shifting global landscape. The panel examines President Trump's approach to Iran, the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, and the potential impact on global energy markets. They also discuss Europe's response to increasing migration, the political tensions within the European Union, and the ways climate-related disasters are becoming central to policy debates.

Together, they explore how international crises increasingly shape domestic politics, influence elections, and test alliances across Europe and the United States. From energy security and border policy to climate resilience and transatlantic relations, this episode provides the context behind the headlines and explains why these interconnected challenges will continue to shape global affairs in the months ahead.

Key Topics

Links