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“0.202 Bits of Evidence In Favor of Futarchy” by niplav
So, I put up some prediction markets on the results of quantified
self RCTs. I ran
one of the experiments, and scored one
market on the results.
How much should the performance of the market change our opinion about
the viability of using prediction platforms to predict RCTs, and thus be
plausibly useful in selecting experiments to run and actions to perform?
We can define the maximum entropy distribution
(our prior on how good causal Futarchy markets should
be) over possible
log scores as having the mean of the log score of random forecasts,
namely -0.6931…
The maximum entropy
distribution
for a given mean on the positive
reals is the exponential
distribution.
The exponential distribution is defined by one parameter, which is
_lambda=frac{1}{μ}_ (the mean of the distribution), in this case
_lambda=frac{1}{0.6931} approx 1.4427_ (for convenience flipping
the distribution to be defined over positive reals). [...]
---
Outline:
(01:41) Acknowledgements
(02:12) See Also
---
First published:
September 29th, 2024
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ipNaYojbg2kSMLCoE/0-202-bits-of-evidence-in-favor-of-futarchy
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
View all episodes
By LessWrongSo, I put up some prediction markets on the results of quantified
self RCTs. I ran
one of the experiments, and scored one
market on the results.
How much should the performance of the market change our opinion about
the viability of using prediction platforms to predict RCTs, and thus be
plausibly useful in selecting experiments to run and actions to perform?
We can define the maximum entropy distribution
(our prior on how good causal Futarchy markets should
be) over possible
log scores as having the mean of the log score of random forecasts,
namely -0.6931…
The maximum entropy
distribution
for a given mean on the positive
reals is the exponential
distribution.
The exponential distribution is defined by one parameter, which is
_lambda=frac{1}{μ}_ (the mean of the distribution), in this case
_lambda=frac{1}{0.6931} approx 1.4427_ (for convenience flipping
the distribution to be defined over positive reals). [...]
---
Outline:
(01:41) Acknowledgements
(02:12) See Also
---
First published:
September 29th, 2024
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ipNaYojbg2kSMLCoE/0-202-bits-of-evidence-in-favor-of-futarchy
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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