Sam Burns, chief strategist of Mill Street Research (www.millstreetresearch.com), an independent research firm, joins Julia La Roche on episode 105.

In this episode, Burns explains how he deploys a top-down macro research approach with bottoms-up analysis.

When it comes to the economy, Burns points out that the economic data has been better than expected and that inflation is headed in the right direction after the worst of it peaked last year. He doesn’t expect an imminent recession in the next six to 12 months. Instead, he expects a gradual slowdown in the economy rather than a sudden fall off a cliff.

As for markets, Burns is overweight equities compared to bonds. Burns, who had been bullish stocks earlier this year amid the pessimism, pointed out that things have gotten back to more normal expectations.  

Learn more at www.millstreetresearch.com.

0:00 Welcome Sam Burns to the show 

0:57 Top-down, bottom-up approach to research 

2:23 Macro view today

4:15 Better-than-expected economic data, inflation coming down 

6:13 The balance between fiscal and monetary policy 

8:14 A gradual slowdown in the economy

11:05 Worst of inflation peaked last year 

14:19 Can inflation get to 2-2.5%?

16:06 Higher for longer 

18:10 Not currently expecting a recession in the next 6-12 months

20:00 Consumer 

22:25 Markets 

25:08 Bond market 

32:00 Stock market 

36:40 Opportunities in the market 

39:15 Traditional 60/40 

41:30 Parting thoughts