September 26, 2023

#105 Sam Burns: The Economy Isn't Headed For Recession Any Time Soon

43 minutes

Sam Burns, chief strategist of Mill Street Research (www.millstreetresearch.com), an independent research firm, joins Julia La Roche on episode 105.

In this episode, Burns explains how he deploys a top-down macro research approach with bottoms-up analysis.

When it comes to the economy, Burns points out that the economic data has been better than expected and that inflation is headed in the right direction after the worst of it peaked last year. He doesn’t expect an imminent recession in the next six to 12 months. Instead, he expects a gradual slowdown in the economy rather than a sudden fall off a cliff.

As for markets, Burns is overweight equities compared to bonds. Burns, who had been bullish stocks earlier this year amid the pessimism, pointed out that things have gotten back to more normal expectations.

Burns has over 20 years of experience as a market strategist, providing analysis and commentary to institutional investors globally. Prior to founding Mill Street Research in 2016, Burns worked as a senior strategist at leading firms, including Oppenheimer & Co., Brown Brothers Harriman, State Street Global Markets, and Ned Davis Research. Mill Street Research provides a suite of consistently updated research reports for institutional investors covering asset allocation, country allocation, sector and industry selection, and a robust quantitative stock selection process.

Learn more at www.millstreetresearch.com.

0:00 Welcome Sam Burns to the show

0:57 Top-down, bottom-up approach to research

2:23 Macro view today

4:15 Better-than-expected economic data, inflation coming down

6:13 The balance between fiscal and monetary policy

8:14 A gradual slowdown in the economy

11:05 Worst of inflation peaked last year

14:19 Can inflation get to 2-2.5%?

16:06 Higher for longer

18:10 Not currently expecting a recession in the next 6-12 months

20:00 Consumer