Bob Elliott ( @BobEUnlimited), cofounder and CEO of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create index replication ETFs of 2&20 style alternative investments like hedge funds, venture capital, and private equity, joins Julia La Roche on episode 114 to discuss the macro picture, why the odds of a recession are increasing, and why it might make sense to allocate 10% of a portfolio to gold. 

This episode was recorded on Friday, October 20. 

Prior to founding Unlimited, Bob was a Senior Investment Executive at Bridgewater Associates, where he served on the Investment Committee (G7) and created investment strategies across equities, fixed income, credit, exchange rates, and commodities, including many used in the flagship Pure Alpha fund. He also built and led Ray Dalio’s personal investment research team for nearly a decade. He’s the author of hundreds of Bridgewater’s widely read Daily Observations and directly counseled some of the world’s foremost policymakers and institutional investors on economic and investing issues.

Bob has also served as an advisor and executive at several startups, including CircleUp, an investment company focused on early-stage consumer brands. He revamped the investment strategy for the company’s $150mln venture funds leveraging big data approaches to improve decision-making. He was also the co-founder of GiveWell, a startup charity evaluator which now directs more than $500mln in annual contributions.

0:00 Welcome Bob Elliott 

0:45 Macro picture 

2:30 Probability of a recession has gone up 

5:20 Bond market 

8:30 Bond sell-offs are self-correcting 

14:20 Higher for longer, but how much longer? 

18:03 Fed’s 2% target for inflation 

20:20 Jamie Dimon’s 7% rates comment 

22:29 Allocated to gold and diversified commodities