Cullen Roche, CIO of Discipline Funds and author of Pragmatic Capitalism, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 123. 

Going into 2023, Cullen’s big call was disinflation, which was a largely correct call. In this episode, Cullen shares his views that it might take a full year for the Federal Reserve to hit the 2% target. Because of that, the Fed can’t start signaling rate cuts without risking a resurgence in inflation. Therefore, Cullen believes the Fed will remain tighter well into 2024, increasing the risk of a hard landing or credit event as we get deeper into 2024.

Links:

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/cullenroche

Discipline Funds: https://disciplinefunds.com/

Is The S&P 500 Broken? https://disciplinefunds.com/2023/11/21/is-the-sp-500-broken/

Pragmatic Capitalism: https://www.amazon.com/Pragmatic-Capitalism-Every-Investor-Finance-ebook/dp/B0B4V1KHVD

0:00 Welcome Cullen Roche to the show 

1:03 Macro view 

5:44 Real estate 

10:13 How resilient is the economy really? 

13:33 Disinflation call, 2024 outlook, road to 2% more difficult 

17:29 Expect Fed to hold rates tight

18:23 Opportunities in bonds

20:28 Stock market is a 17-year instrument, duration of other asset classes 

26:50 Allocating in this environment 

30:00 Is the S&P 500 broken, are there hidden risks? 

Marlinski Media produces the Julia La Roche Show: https://www.marlinskimedia.com/