The Julia La Roche Show

#150 Alfonso Peccatiello On The Risk of a Global Recession Triggered by China's Deleveraging And The Spillover Effects Not Many Are Paying Attention To

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Alfonso Peccatiello, founder of the Macro Compass, discusses the macro view of the current market and investor expectations. 

He challenges the narrative of a structurally stronger US economy and presents a contrarian perspective. Peccatiello highlights the ambiguous data and warning signs in the economy, particularly in relation to China's deleveraging process and the spillover ripple effects on other economies. 

Peccatiello emphasizes the importance of portfolio construction and diversification to protect purchasing power. He concludes by sharing his background and the launch of a macro fund.


Takeaways

  • Investors are adjusting their expectations based on the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates fewer times than initially anticipated.
  • The prevailing narrative of a structurally stronger US economy may overlook the tightening of financial conditions and the potential spillover effects from China's deleveraging process.
  • The data is ambiguous, with some parts of the economy showing signs of slowing down while others remain resilient.
  • Portfolio construction should focus on diversification and protecting purchasing power, considering assets that are uncorrelated to one's job and the overall economy.


    • Links: 

    Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/macroalf

    The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.org/


    Timestamps

    00:00 Introduction

    00:22 The macro view

    03:08 Prevailing narrative of a stronger US economy, ‘party like it’s 1995’

    05:30 Alf’s contrarian narrative

    08:54 Ambiguous data and warning Ssgns

    11:42 Spillover effects from China

    15:41 Possible recession and risks

    27:14 Conclusion

    ...more
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