Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to the show for episode 208 to discuss the economy, markets, and the 2024 presidential election.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

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*A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

Links:    

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/   

Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/  

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro and welcome back Chris Whalen

00:56 Big picture, overview of interest rates and Fed policy

02:57 Analysis of Treasury bond market dynamics

04:11 Long-term outlook for bonds and market structure

06:01 Discussion of fiscal policy and government spending

09:00 Critique of government spending efficiency

11:24 Commentary on government sector competency

13:21 Election outlook and demographic shifts

16:56 Analysis of Bank of America and banking sector

19:16 Discussion of stock selection in current market

22:42 Investment strategy in uncertain times

24:59 Analysis of hydrogen and energy sector outlook

26:02 Key market risk: potential for higher long-term rates

28:05 Closing thoughts and upcoming conference call