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#224 George Goncalves: The 2025 'Balancing Act' — Different Starting Points From Trump 1.0, Take Medicine Early or Keep Spending & What Could Break Markets
George Goncalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG, joins the Julia La Roche Show to discuss why 2025 will be a "balancing act" as markets transition from record highs to new economic realities. In this wide-ranging conversation, Goncalves explains why the Trump administration faces a critical choice between taking "short-term pain for long-term gain" early in the term or continuing fiscal largesse, analyzes why the 10-year yield breaking above 4.75% could trigger market turbulence, and breaks down why the Federal Reserve needs to keep cutting rates to avoid a recession in the second half of the year.
Links:
https://x.com/bondstrategist
Timestamps:
00:00 Welcome to George Goncalves
01:17 Background and macro framework
03:15 2025 as a "balancing act"
05:35 Market complacency and valuations
07:19 Short-term pain for long-term gain
09:43 Business vs. government-led growth
11:01 Different starting points from Trump 1.0
13:38 Economy propped up by fiscal spending
16:21 Interest rates and fiscal policy
17:14 Bond market dynamics explanation
21:43 Credit market implications
23:26 Soft landing analysis
28:01 Market euphoria and transition risks
29:41 Deficit and debt analysis
33:05 Scott Bessent's 3-3-3 plan analysis
34:40 Fed policy outlook for 2025
39:15 Closing thoughts on dollar and oil
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By Julia La Roche
4.4
5353 ratings
George Goncalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG, joins the Julia La Roche Show to discuss why 2025 will be a "balancing act" as markets transition from record highs to new economic realities. In this wide-ranging conversation, Goncalves explains why the Trump administration faces a critical choice between taking "short-term pain for long-term gain" early in the term or continuing fiscal largesse, analyzes why the 10-year yield breaking above 4.75% could trigger market turbulence, and breaks down why the Federal Reserve needs to keep cutting rates to avoid a recession in the second half of the year.
Links:
https://x.com/bondstrategist
Timestamps:
00:00 Welcome to George Goncalves
01:17 Background and macro framework
03:15 2025 as a "balancing act"
05:35 Market complacency and valuations
07:19 Short-term pain for long-term gain
09:43 Business vs. government-led growth
11:01 Different starting points from Trump 1.0
13:38 Economy propped up by fiscal spending
16:21 Interest rates and fiscal policy
17:14 Bond market dynamics explanation
21:43 Credit market implications
23:26 Soft landing analysis
28:01 Market euphoria and transition risks
29:41 Deficit and debt analysis
33:05 Scott Bessent's 3-3-3 plan analysis
34:40 Fed policy outlook for 2025
39:15 Closing thoughts on dollar and oil
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