Sign up to save your podcasts
Or
Share #224 George Goncalves: The 2025 'Balancing Act' — Different Starting Points From Trump 1.0, Take Medicine Early or Keep Spending & What Could Break Markets
Share to email
Share to Facebook
Share to X
Share to email
Share to Facebook
Share to X
Or
#224 George Goncalves: The 2025 'Balancing Act' — Different Starting Points From Trump 1.0, Take Medicine Early or Keep Spending & What Could Break Markets
George Goncalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG, joins the Julia La Roche Show to discuss why 2025 will be a "balancing act" as markets transition from record highs to new economic realities. In this wide-ranging conversation, Goncalves explains why the Trump administration faces a critical choice between taking "short-term pain for long-term gain" early in the term or continuing fiscal largesse, analyzes why the 10-year yield breaking above 4.75% could trigger market turbulence, and breaks down why the Federal Reserve needs to keep cutting rates to avoid a recession in the second half of the year.
Links:
https://x.com/bondstrategist
Timestamps:
00:00 Welcome to George Goncalves
01:17 Background and macro framework
03:15 2025 as a "balancing act"
05:35 Market complacency and valuations
07:19 Short-term pain for long-term gain
09:43 Business vs. government-led growth
11:01 Different starting points from Trump 1.0
13:38 Economy propped up by fiscal spending
16:21 Interest rates and fiscal policy
17:14 Bond market dynamics explanation
21:43 Credit market implications
23:26 Soft landing analysis
28:01 Market euphoria and transition risks
29:41 Deficit and debt analysis
33:05 Scott Bessent's 3-3-3 plan analysis
34:40 Fed policy outlook for 2025
39:15 Closing thoughts on dollar and oil
View all episodes
By Julia La Roche
4.5
4343 ratings
George Goncalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG, joins the Julia La Roche Show to discuss why 2025 will be a "balancing act" as markets transition from record highs to new economic realities. In this wide-ranging conversation, Goncalves explains why the Trump administration faces a critical choice between taking "short-term pain for long-term gain" early in the term or continuing fiscal largesse, analyzes why the 10-year yield breaking above 4.75% could trigger market turbulence, and breaks down why the Federal Reserve needs to keep cutting rates to avoid a recession in the second half of the year.
Links:
https://x.com/bondstrategist
Timestamps:
00:00 Welcome to George Goncalves
01:17 Background and macro framework
03:15 2025 as a "balancing act"
05:35 Market complacency and valuations
07:19 Short-term pain for long-term gain
09:43 Business vs. government-led growth
11:01 Different starting points from Trump 1.0
13:38 Economy propped up by fiscal spending
16:21 Interest rates and fiscal policy
17:14 Bond market dynamics explanation
21:43 Credit market implications
23:26 Soft landing analysis
28:01 Market euphoria and transition risks
29:41 Deficit and debt analysis
33:05 Scott Bessent's 3-3-3 plan analysis
34:40 Fed policy outlook for 2025
39:15 Closing thoughts on dollar and oil
More shows like The Julia La Roche Show
View all
Macro Voices
3,052 Listeners
The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing
926 Listeners
Real Vision: Finance & Investing
912 Listeners
Hedgeye Podcasts
201 Listeners
Palisades Gold Radio
239 Listeners
The Market Huddle
362 Listeners
Eurodollar University
462 Listeners
ITM Trading Podcast
64 Listeners
Supply Shock
120 Listeners
Wealthion - Be Financially Resilient
377 Listeners
The Jay Martin Show
61 Listeners
Forward Guidance
274 Listeners
Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart
341 Listeners
The David Lin Report
30 Listeners
Monetary Matters with Jack Farley
89 Listeners