Legendary economist Dr. A. Gary Shilling, President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic consulting firm and a registered investment advisor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 249 to discuss the state of the economy.

Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

In this episode, Dr. Shilling explains why he believes we are headed for a recession, if not already in one. He analyzes how Trump's tariff policies are disrupting global trade relationships and creating economic uncertainty while simultaneously forcing countries like China to the negotiating table. Despite these headwinds, Dr. Shilling reveals why he remains bullish on US Treasuries and the dollar as safe havens, shares his optimistic outlook on Indian stocks over Chinese investments, and advises listeners to build "fortress-like balance sheets" to weather the coming economic storm.

Timestamps:

00:00 - Introduction and welcome back Dr. Shilling

01:50 - Historical context: US economic role since World War II

03:34 - Impact of globalization on US manufacturing

04:14 - Trump's changing approach to international trade

06:37 - China's position and recent willingness to negotiate

09:03 - Signs of recession and economic vulnerabilities

12:33 - Bond market volatility and US Treasury outlook

17:18 - Perspective on gold reaching record highs

19:11 - Current investment allocations and strategies

20:21 - Why India may surpass China in global leadership

24:19 - Media coverage of market fluctuations vs long-term outlook

26:47 - Dr. Shilling's history of contrarian economic predictions

29:56 - Assessment of current economic vulnerabilities

32:04 - Consumer debt and "buy now, pay later" trends

33:27 - The US debt bomb and dollar's reserve currency status

36:52 - Potential outcomes of tariff policies

39:43 - Contact information and subscription details

40:42 - Closing advice: maintaining a "fortress-like balance sheet"

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